Hitesh portfolio

super like ! Thank you Hiteshbhai for candid reply

I am glad and grateful that you shared your journey of Good to Great.
Your story inspires me more because when one knows that everyone is so dumb at start but with time ,discipline ,patience and temperament ,anybody can be a decent compounding machine.
I have made lot of mistakes in last 20 years and was still not able to compound my money due to behavioural issues despite picking lot of multibaggers like TTk Prestige,Emami,Yes bank,Linc Pen,Techno electric etc but selling them with every market fall.
I am doing lot of reading and pondering since last year . My one key takeaway is that Information and analysis is abundant but temperament is lacking or missing . Managing expectation and acceptance plays a indispensable role in Value investing.
So thanks again for inspiring and for sharing your wisdom regularly.
Cheers !

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Thanks Hitesh bhai for update. I have ard 10 Lacs and planning to invest. as per analysts, the HFC is the upcoming industry with affordable housing area. Please suggest if that would be good area. Any ideas on L&T finance.

Hiteshji,

Thank you for sharing. Reading this brings me to another set of question…

How do work your ideas out? Is it driven by newspaper reports? Do you get thoughts about companies from friends? I have read several other books and also material here on VP. However I would like to hear your deeper thoughts on idea building and conviction creation.

Once you do get convinced by an idea, what procedure do you use to flesh it out and then finally how do you then chose those lucky companies, is it primarily the use of financial ratios?

Apologies in advance for the long list of questions, i am keenly interested in the process that people follow as opposed to asking for tips etc. As VP has nicely put it, how do we separate the wheat from the chaff.

I have struggled recently trying to navigate a highly priced market and choosing companies that are good, but seem too highly priced.

As I read I find several people say that they are always invested int the market, but even markets that are at 23pe or say a 2008 market that went up to 27?

I try and follow strict rules for myself with low pes, and high opm, growing sales and reducing or no debt, but at the end of the day I still face trepidation on choosing stocks in highly priced markets (perhaps it would be the same in a low priced and extended period market weakness)

Any insights would be welcome.

Thanks

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Thank you Hiteshji for a crisp summary of your investing career, lifted up my spirits to improve my investing efforts. Can’t thank you enough

@sanjay clockwork,

Getting ideas is not difficult these days. I guess most of companies out there are covered on VP also. Sources of ideas is often meeting/interacting with other investors, some or other research reports (which should always be a starting point only and not to be acted upon immediately), technical picks (many of these often have some strong business tailwinds behind them on deeper digging) etc.

How to take these ideas forward is mostly the question. Firstly I try looking at gross obvious negatives like too much debt, dodgy promoters, lots of pledging, poor financials and balance sheet, low opportunity size as compared to market cap etc. Any or a combination of these would help me in rejecting these ideas immediately.

Companies passing the above filters are the candidates for further work. It begins with cursory look at financials where a first look at screener does give some idea about where the co has gone in the past few years. I dont outright reject companies which have not gone anywhere in past few years bcos there are some sleepy companies which may be on verge of waking up and running hard. Screener gives me an idea about market cap, Book value, quarterly and annual results at a quick glance.

Next comes downloading past few years (sometimes even a couple of them suffice) annual reports and looking at what management has been talking and what it actually has been doing. Annual reports also provide insights into the business of the company and the financials of the company . I tend to check the financial figures from official documents from the company rather than relying only on research reports or figures from screener or similar website.

Doing all this provides with a picture of the business quality and management quality of the company. Next step is to figure out what are the investment triggers for the company going ahead. Sometimes it is there in the form of quarterly numbers, or sectoral tailwinds, impending expansions, progressive reduction of debt, etc.

A step further is to go through the concalls/presentations/management tv interviews etc provided on researchbytes or on co website or elsewhere.

If the company is well covered by analysts then it helps to go through some of them though most of them are copy paste kind of jobs though some of them are really good. If the co is not that well covered then its all the more better and likely to provide better returns if the gap between perception and performance is big.

After doing all this the final step is to write down a short 1-2 page write up which I usually use in my stock stories on companies I have put up. e.g Jagran. This write up should cover the business of the co, financials (which include last few years and quarters figures, balance sheet items like debt etc, promoter holding, pledging etc, MF/FII holding if any, market cap, return ratios etc). And investment arguments and risk factors. One of the things that can be included could be the reason to sell the company. (whenever that happens) I have yet to do the latter.

Once all this is done, then if valuations are attractive then I tend to buy the company usually in a single shot. Sometimes it takes longer.

One of the things I usually missed was averaging on the up as the story tends to improve. I am gradually getting over this problem as I add more to some companies where story does tend to improve and valuations still remain attractive inspite of stock price run up mainly due to improving financial results.

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Thanks Hitesh. I was looking for some guidance, this write up really helps. One general ? is screener.in Info is reliable. I have see the updates are almost recent .May be few days old. Other than screener.in is there any good site to find Cos. historical Data.

Thanks,
Chandarshekara

Distilled wisdom in few paragraphs !!! Thanks @hitesh2710 for generously sharing your knowledge. I have saved this and will keep coming back to for counsel during times of turbulence and uncertainty.

Hiteshji I am perplexed by Praj Industries, have worked on this stock for past 5-7 years always look’s good on technology, technicals valuations but it does never reflects true valuations ? Is management the issue? or Industry is like this? Kindly help with your view on this stock.

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Great writeup! thank you This is of great help to amateurs like me!

Regards,

Susheel

ramanhp

Praj has been a disappointment for me too. But these themes do tend to take a long time to play out and one needs a lot of patience and a reasonably low level of purchase price.

I can clearly see the sectoral tailwinds building up but somehow it is not materialising into order book and revenues. I would like to give it some more time or else if some better looking idea comes up I would like to shift. Its wait and watch mode for now.

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I agree Hiteshji, had my bouts of patience with this have always bought at valuations which looks attractive held on but after initial 10-20% move it gets flat, I have analysed the market, they are good that’s the reason I buy it! I hope this time they deliver.Regards

Hitesh Sir , your thoughts on sheela foam?
Thnx.

Jugal

Hi Hitesh,Do you track Capital Trust .If yes whats your view on it.
Thanks!

@jugal, I dont know much about sheela foams.
@ajjw123, I dont track capital trust so not much idea about it.

Hi Hitesh,

A while ago you had initiated a topic on Andhra Petro. This co. looks a turnaround to me.
Would like to hear your views.

Thanks

Have you studied Motherson Sumi Hitesh bhai. Sehgal is clearly a transformational leader to have taken his company to this level. However the sector and the acquisition driven growth does raise a lot of questions.

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Kudos! Have been following you since equitydesk days, was quite late to valuepickr! Reading you is reaffirming many times! Keep writing your experiences!

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@hitesh2710

From where can one get the details of the earnings drivers of all the 157 Sub-Industries as set forth by GICS ? Any ebook / link / other resource(s) will be great

@hitesh2710 sir u used to track Gokaldas…so as of now Blackstone is exiting and its Ex capitalist and Ex director Mathew is buying this stack…so how u see this development…