Counter argument for no terminal value/poor longevity for newspaper industry
As Indian literacy rates rise the number of people who read the newspapers will also rise. In India especially in rural areas, it is a statement when you are reading a newspaper especially when you have crossed the chasm from being illiterate to being a literate. Apparently there is a trend in Indian of reducing the communal reading and buying Individual papers. This should also be good news for Indian newspaper industry. (ref below) It makes sense to me- if I am slowly coming out of poverty and getting into the often used middle class bracket, I would want to make a statement by going and purchasing my own paper, make sure everyone sees me/my son/family reading.
Before we say that the death of newspaper industry is here, we need to look at where the reasoning comes from and whether Indian market is similar to the other. Although the broadstrokes are similar, there are distinct differences. The often cited reason that internet use will cause the print media to disappear might be an oversimplification. The major contribution to the decline in western newspaper industry may be due to the financial crisis rather than the internet itself. Also there is a decline in the number of newspapers in the west, covering local issues and hyperlocal issues- while in India the reverse is happening. There is a significant increase of the regional language newspapers and there local editions. The local editions, reduce the time taken to reach the customer making the news still relevant unlike before where the dak editions were considered sub par. The very local regional newspaper has different clientele, priorities, and meaning than lets say TOI, Hindu. They cover local issues, local advocacy, people are eager to read the local issues, see their photos in the paper, see photos of local events, read about conditions of roads, advice on farming, health queries and local ads from business who cannot afford ads in big newspapers.
As major political news, national news has become a commodity and can be sourced from the net without any money, I am not sure if the local news is yet to be commoditised. And the often cited reason that internet connectivity India is poor is still relevant for rural India.
For instance, Malayala Manorama - which I have at home: - I have already seen the major news that’s there the previous night on TV or on the net. But the family reads it for local news, death notices (that a big reason- I am not sure if it’s a Kerala thing or its there all over India; getting obituary in paper, death anniversary notices in papers is a big deal. Earlier alliances used to be a big reason for newspaper subscription, but the websites have come in now. I have not seen any reduction in the matrimony ads in the newspaper though. Ads for marriage anniversaries is a new thing- placing an ad for your 25 wedding anniversary or the kids paying for their parents 40- 50 th anniversaries). It has multiple editions covering every couple of districts. This phenomena is happening in Northern state regional Hindi media as well (multiple editions). A big media house running a local edition can get journalists easy, pay them better, reduce time for delivering, command more in ad rate and displace any existing local players. Along with this there are issues of tradition, habit, generational transmission of reading the particular paper.
After a critical point the newspapers dictate the general discussion; for you to have meaningful discussion you need to have read the paper other wise you are out of it. You cannot have a discussion without reading NewYork times./FT, - because they set the tone and if you haven’t read it you cannot discuss. I don’t know if any Indian paper has reached that stage. But its an interesting idea.
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/medium-for-the-masses-how-indias-local-newspapers-are-winning-rural-readers/
http://ejournalist.com.au/v12n1/Hooke.pdf