Hi Hemant,
Any portfolio updates?
Have you re-looked at Arshiya recently? Your view on the logistics sector, given the newfoud thrust on infrastructure, ports, high speed rails…
Thanks,
Ramesh
hi everyone,
last few months have been very exciting and i have been fortunate to be fully invested in this dream run and plan to continue like that for another year atleast. global markets are quite likely to reach a major top something in the next 12-18 months which should give another oppurtunity to accumulate.
recently, i have been very busy with work commitments and i guess the forum has also been lacking in quality discussions due to inadequate participation from the founder members or seniors.
i made good short term profits(100%+) in aurobindo, caplin, granules and ptc india financial.
current portfolio:
repco 9%
gruh 7%
kaveri 7%
pi ind 7%
hawkins 7%
symphony 8%
cera 8%
vmart 5%
ajanta 10%
alembic 5%
shilpa 8%
astral 10%
page 9%
Hemant so nice to hear from you after such a long time. Please post more frequently austere are large no of admirers of your sage posts n picks.
Congratulations on your stupendous performance .
Thanks are due from my side for your wonderful pick n timing on Aurobindo Pharma@ 264 few months back . I am still holding onto it even when the price has increased to 700 approx as its Anda pipeline is strong, injectable have been formed under a separate subsidiary which may be hived off, new team performing well n PE still around 10-11 on FY 16 basis.
Are you still tracking it ? Any other picks you like at CMP?
What’s your take on Astral, Mayur, Shilpa technically n fundamentally ?
Can n symphony be bought at CMP?
I meant Cera n Symphony .
Hi Vivek,
Thanks for the kind words. Aurobindo is still a good stock to own. Like it both technically and fundamentally. I made my money in it and sold around 600 as I wanted to buy Hawkins. Hawkins has broken out technically from a long consolidation pattern and should head substantially higher over the next year or two.
Astral, mayur, shilpa, cera and symphony are compounders and should continue on their 25-30% path and if in case economy picks up we can get 35-40% from them.
I think Indian markets are headed substantially higher in the long term with usual corrections on the way. Even good stocks will occasionally give a 20-25% dip according to their own wave pattern and that’s the time to load up on them. I think there are three candidates for the leader of this bull run - housing finance, building products and pharmaceuticals. With time, it would become very clear who takes the cake. Whoever goes on to be the leader would finish the bull run at unimaginable valuations.
One stock that I think is an underdog and could surprise everyone is HSIL. It’s building products division is much bigger and more profitable than cera while the total market cap is same as cera. The reason has been the packaging division which has been a major drag. If economy picks up and liquor industry does well, the packaging division could perform well and add to the earnings and cause a big re-rating. Initial signs are there and it’s time to wait and watch. Technically it has broken into Elliot wave three and could go substantially higher. I am slowly nibbling here. This is one stock to research more and keep and eye.
Good to see you back hemant 
In housing finance space whats your technical view on CanFin and Dewan housing?
and Kajaria ceramincs in building products category please.
Thanks!
Niranjan
Hi niranjan,
Fundamentally, I like canfin, not Dewan. Technically, housing finance as a sector is in correction/consolidation mode after a frenzied runup. May pick up with sops expected to be announced in the budget.
Kajaria is a good company and a tremendous runup, may consolidate or correct for a while before the next leg kicks off. Overall, these are stocks to keep an eye on for an irrational crash if it happens.
Happieee to have you back bhaiya :-)… Had guessed you would have got into Hawkins
regards
mallikarjun
What’s the theme n trigger behind building products . Is narendra Modi affordable housing projects ,good demand, lowering of interest rates act as trigger?
But in tender situations the procurement of these products will be on L1 basis leaving out quality cos like Cera n HSIL. Also any glass cos are making decent profit in India due to major competition with plastic n pet manfg cos n breakage costs,higher transportation costs?
Piramal glasses remained an under performer for long until promoters buy back or delisting.Had heard earlier that HSIL may sell off its glass division.
Also your take technically on Avanti feed n Syndicate bank.
Syndicate bank has lower gross NPA of around 2% much lower than other PSBs, BV of 196 , PE n div yield of 5% , PCR of 70% QIP plans in offing, recent 500 million USD PLACEMENT OF bonds at a rate lower then that given to SBI . Belong to a sector which can give good turnaround n further reduction n write back of already provisioned NPAs.
Also look at Tata Coommmunication which is a asset play n improving business story.
What’s the theme n trigger behind building products . Is narendra Modi affordable housing projects ,good demand, lowering of interest rates act as trigger?
But in tender situations the procurement of these products will be on L1 basis leaving out quality cos like Cera n HSIL. Also any glass cos are making decent profit in India due to major competition with plastic n pet manfg cos n breakage costs,higher transportation costs?
Piramal glasses remained an under performer for long until promoters buy back or delisting.Had heard earlier that HSIL may sell off its glass division.
Also your take technically on Avanti feed n Syndicate bank.
Syndicate bank has lower gross NPA of around 2% much lower than other PSBs, BV of 196 , PE n div yield of 5% , PCR of 70% QIP plans in offing, recent 500 million USD PLACEMENT OF bonds at a rate lower then that given to SBI . Belong to a sector which can give good turnaround n further reduction n write back of already provisioned NPAs.
Also look at Tata Coommmunication which is a asset play n improving business story.
Hi Vivek,
On building products segment, if modi govt is serious abou their 100 cities plan, then this segment will have blue sky to grow. Even without that, growing aspirations of Indian middle class and increasing urbanisation would give enough headroom for them to grow. Also, they have a major theme working for them of grabbing market share from unorganised competitors. This lets them grow at high levels even when industry grows at a moderate pace.
Hsil is a bull market stock. If demand picks up a little bit on the packaging side, it would start contributing positive earnings which should allow the building products division to reach a bit less than its fair valuations. It’s building products division is worth a lot more on a standalone basis and if it is ever spun off, it’s market cap would double in no time. Even without that, it just needs the packaging division to break even to drive the multiple re-rating.
Avanti is strong technically and currently consolidating after the dream run. Should head higher shortly.
Thanks mate. Have started nibbling at HSIL.Now they are setting up the 3rd plant things look still better shud grow at 20-25% CAGR
Do you own Avanti? Could still up from here as World is moving towards a high protein ,Omeg3 fatty acid rich,healthy diet like shrimps & fish and co is in a sweet spot due to MPEDA effective work in in controlling disease in India,expanded capacity commissioned in march 14,TUF 25% stake,ethical promoter with great execution over 20 years,increasing opp size.I own it since 337 thanks to Ayush
Hi Vivek,
I have been small position in avanti but nothing to write about. This is not a stock which I can hold a big position in and sleep well at night. With portfolio growing in size, I am now focussing in surer gains than faster gains.
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Dear Hemant,
Could you update your latest portfolio please ?
Rgds
Vivek
Hi Vivek, I updated it on 15th June. Only change since then has been hsil to the tune of 4% of the portfolio with fresh cash.
Thanks Hemant.
I own canfin and looking to add Repco and Cera.
Would like to know your views on Selan explorations and Tata elxsi too please?
Cheers!
Niranjan
Hi niranjan,
Fundamentally I don’t know much about Sean or Tata Elxsi and don’t follow them. Technically, Selan is in a strong uptrend with consistent higher tops and bottoms. Seems headed higher after this brief consolidation. Tata Elxsi has been in an even stronger uptrend and shown some time correction after a vertical uptrend. Once it shows a weekly close above 670’ it could head towards 1000 over the medium term.
Thanks Hemant
Hi Hemant,
Page Industries is currently undergoing correction. Can you please find out the technicals of the downturn and whether this is good time to buy @cmp? Or more downside is expected and should hold our decision to buy at this time?