Thank you @zoro99, I agree that game won’t be smooth for any of the players, each player has to give lofty deals to defend and grow their market, Hathaway seems to be reasonably prepared for that, as they have already upgraded their network with high speed & capacity, although same is not yet reflecting their marketing plans, management claims that for their high ARPU subscriber they already raised data limits ranging from 200GB to 1000GB, this is without effective EBITDA margin.
Regarding Local player: local players usually don’t have their own network setup, usually, they are virtual operator just doing marketing things & selling plans and they lease network from existing big players… these guys don’t have any scale & cost advantage, as their network is on fixed fee’s they can’t do aggressive cost cutting… only on the marketing side, they can play around, I would simply ignore them as if the market gets cannibalized, they will be the first one to die.
Regarding State-run co’s: BSNL, MTNL, everyone knows how their services are, once experiencing outage it takes days & weeks to get a fix, yes they will also get market they deserve and mostly in rural areas(Low ARPU). where other private players are not venturing.
Regarding other telecom operator’s (Airtel, Idea-Vodafone): as Jio already damaged their balance sheet, and recent Jio move to aggressively acquire Postpaid subscriber(Postpaid & Corporates are highest ARPU subscriber) will further damage both capacity to invest & fight for broadband, only Airtel I think still can give a fight with diminishing capacity.
Regarding 5G: I know 5G as i work in the same field, it’s more about IOT and improving the latency(gap between the first request for data & delivery of data), it will be more focused on an Enterprise level for IOT & Automation kind of industries, as devices need to talk and should have least possible latency, its not for a normal consumer, is there anything useful you can do with 100 gbps speed, or even with 1-2 Gbps speed.?
For the normal consumer, the litmus test is streaming ability of network(Youtube, Netflix), whenever we do dimensioning of any network our benchmark is youtube streaming, you might have noticed, teleco’s market 42 MBPS speed but you will never experience 42mbps, it will stay around max 7-15 mbps, which works well for normal Youtube.
that’s why for a normal consumer if Youtube works fine… they never complain
Hathway already have a high-speed network, as I mentioned Streaming is the litmus test, and further marginal utility of speed is next to nothing (Law of diminishing marginal utility), this also kind of limits the incremental CapEx requirements in telecos we have seen till 4G.
I mainly considered Jio plans, as they are the one cannibalizing market and the new entrant in this space, Hathway is already able to compete with other player’s and still getting decent new subscriber’s.
One other advantage Hathway have is: they have around 7.3 Million total Tv consumer, not sure how many are in targeted cities, but still they can easily reach these consumers and do cross-sell for broadband.
Moreover, my investment is with regards to the perceived value which is at replacement cost(assuming, as I am not financial savvy) we are not paying for growth, and growth could be a surprise.
Disclosure: I may be biased and wrong.