Grizzly bear portfolio - keep it simple

Update:
ONGC 5%
HDFC Ltd 2%
MGL 2%
ITC 2%
Cash 89%

Thanks
Hiral Dedhia

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Can you pls let me know your reasons for picking ONGC among energy PSU stocks. I was trying to think ONGC vs say IOCL/GAIL or even NTPC/NHPC/Powergrid/Coal India at such valuations and excellent dividend yields. Have you looked at any of these?

Disc: Had ONGC as a significant part of portfolio long long back. Sold most at around 300 levels. Last week took some tracking position at 75. Also tracking position in NTPC at 90 levels

What debt instruments do you hold ? How safe it is ? What’s the process to move funds from debt to equity (means time lag).

Pls share the mechanism.

Though this is my first post but can’t stop writing seeing the name of the company. IMO, investing any money in ONGC is suicidal. It is one of the worst wealth destroyer company post 2000 era. So better invest money in FD than ONGC. If you need proof of its track record I can give details. I think very few people here would have invested in ONGC in the past as I did. I have a view that such company cannot be advised for investment even to enemy :slight_smile:

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How do you define the wealth detroyer - I mean which ratio and trend gives the indication of wealth destroyer.

In my opinion, a simple method of annualized return over last 20 years will give you indication and nail the truth permanently in the hard disk.

ONGC was available at a very good valuation and with dividend yield of 6-7% i though it was a good a substitute for FD. I moved some portion of cash to ONGC prior to Saudi - Russia oil war for short term with expectations of just about matching FD returns.
Crude price in twenties was something i never considered … lessons learnt!!

With respect to all views - Sooner or later crude prices will stabilize to a market determined rate. Othewise all exploration activities will stop in world and ONGC would be better off buying crude from Saudi and selling to IOCL rather than exploring. So would be any other oil explorer in the world. I am just thinking , is that possible that all exploration would end?

Amigo, in my experience as beginner we make mistake by giving too much of importance and top priority to dividend yield kind of funda for investing. Before pumping any hard earned money and jumping on stocks, we should always analyze the business, its propect and most importantly the govt control to milk its blood till death. One day you will find ONGC trading below par value as well. According to me never ever invest money in govt companies no matter how much gurus scream for value buys otherwise you will lose both money and time and cry in silence.

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About Government own businesses my view:

The asset allocation method is very interesting and i have been trying to find such methods that are successful. Do you have any proof of it succeeding with other investors or fund houses? Also, have you considered diversified mutual funds/index funds to instead of direct stock investment? For me looking at overall market valuation and deciding to enter based overall market valuation in to a specific company looks counter intuitive. In every bull markets there are companies in bear territory and vice versa. Hence asking.

Update:
HDFC bank 2.5%
HDFC ltd 1 %
Icici bank 1 %
ITC 2.5%
MGL 2 %
Ongc 4%
SBI 1%
Sun pharma 1.5%

Cash 85%

I have booked some profit in bajaj finance and maruti in last 1 month with a hope of entering at lower levels. I am in wait and watch mode. Not planning to deploy further cash in short term unless there is a significant correction.

Thanks
Hiral Dedhia

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Great moves in this great portfolio discussion. Lightening portfolio based on the upfront risk of Covid-19 in June and July just makes a lot of sense. India cannot escape the calamity like US went thru, lockdown or not, preparation or not, heat or not, rain or not. There is just too much close proximity to people, and people are getting desperate to work, unlike where US made WAH an open option for millions (not all). So, lets see if that happens, and if it does not, thank God, and we would have lost 5% or so in profits since stocks will jump up or would have jumped higher than our selling prices.

KKP

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Update: Booked some profits over last 2 weeks.

Cash : 92%

Looks like I will be going in Hilbernation mode soon :grinning:

On a serious note, Nifty is again heading towards 23+ PE with forward PE of probably 30+. The uncertainty is probably out of the way and things may move back to normalcy sooner than expected.

I have tried using a similar approach of switching between debt and equity with boom and bust. I missed the 2017 rally in mid and small caps remained in debt funds on sidelines. Started deploying to equity in 2018 and 2019. I don’t think I am going to try to time the market again. Too much of caution makes you sit on sidelines. You will be a winner sometimes but not everytime.

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I do not think that the Covid situation is going to get under control, anytime soon. In fact, i believe that it is going to be heartbreaking going forward. Whereas, at the sametime the stock market may keep going up.

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Feedback that I am getting from countries where the lockdown has been lifted starting last week is that people are getting out, going to restaurants and malls as if nothing happened. US job numbers released last week was also positive. In India we were expecting things to crawl back but apparently its sprinting back to normal.

That doesn’t mean Corona is not going to crawl back? This would be the disaster waiting to happen and US jobs data turned out be faked.

I agree the same is in India

But than we also keep on discussing the rising nos.
What i understand that lifting of lockdown and rising nos. Are directly co related
Lockdown has its own negativity and positivity
But the general view of public is that we want to start again and as soon as possible

Update:
FOMO kicked in, deployed some cash over past few days.

Portfolio:

Bharti Airtel - 4%
IEX - 5%
ITC - 7%
MGL - 2%
SBI - 3%
Tracking position - RACLGear, Hdfc Amc, Alembic pharma

Cash - 75%
Will look to aggressively add if there is a meaningful correction from here.

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