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As long as retail money keeps coming in, it will be pointless talking about how stock prices and thus their valuations are not justified by their prospective earnings. Under the prevailing conditions, the market will continue to go up because it has been going-up.
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In 2016-17, the total amount of money that was invested in MFs through the SIP route was ₹43,921 crore. It shot up to ₹96,080 crore in 2020-21 and to ₹199,219 crore in 2023-24.
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Retail investors (individual investors plus domestic MFs plus Ulips) now hold more than 40% of the floating stock of companies listed on the NSE. Foreign institutional investors hold 36.8%.
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Can you share this here? Its behind a paywall.
You can paste the article link on https://www.textise.net/. It will give you the text of the article.
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One thing I have learnt of all these years in market is this Never generalize . “Markets can remain solvent than you can remain soluble” -Anonymous
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Today more n more people are using online screeners like screener.in, tickertape, etc., which don’t capture lot of critical parameters which is needed to detect possible manipulation of accounts. The following link is a good read, to help you to understand red flags.
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Budget Summary
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Why one shouldn’t expect to make money without bearing risk, but you shouldn’t expect to make money just for taking risk. You have to sacrifice certainty, but it has to be done skilfully and intelligently, and with emotion under control.
The Indispensability of Risk - The Indispensability of Risk (oaktreecapital.com)
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Good discussion and importantly realistic
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Recession fears in the US are growing:
The Sahm Rule is an economic indicator suggesting a downturn once the unemployment rate increases 0.5 percentage points above its previous 12-month low.
In previous business cycles, every time this indicator crossed above the 0.5% threshold a recession followed.
It now stands at 0.4%, just 0.1 percentage points away from signaling a recession in the US.
The unemployment rate would need to rise to 4.2% in this week’s jobs report to break the threshold.
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Sahm Rule is 0.53 now. Brace for impact!
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That’s right. However, based on the interview of the creator (Claudia Sahm), this increase is due to supply of migrants and not due to slowdown in consumption or spending. Article goes into lot of details for the ratio along with Claudia’s quote on the same.
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