Great articles to read on the web

Another very interesting interview of Kenneth with Nirmal Bang. Apart from what I mentioned in the previous post, here are the new insights that I garnered.

  • Be scared when the smallest guy in a booming industry is making money and if the industry is becoming more and more fragmented
  • Don’t try to find cheap stocks in an overvalued industry as that stock is probably cheap for a reason, and if industry dynamics mean revert, this guy will be killed
  • Three major costs apart from material cost and their trends over the next decade:
    – Salary: Believes that wage inflation is not coming back over the next decade
    – Interest: Believes that interest rate will be lower over the next decade
    – Electricity, power & fuel: Steeply declining and believes that it will stay lower
    – All this might lead to a mean reversion in profit margins
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This should answer alot of questions which alot of people ask Mr. Hitesh on his post about current market conditions from the perspective of Mr Sumit Vartak

Newsletter edition Aug 2020

https://sageoneinvestments.com/2020/08/?s=08

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it can be disruptive move for the energy created and stored and can earn India good amount of export as having huge resources of aluminum

When Akshay Singhal decided to found a graphene startup back in 2014, he had no idea that the deep tech startup, Log 9 Materials, would end up developing a product which is capable of replacing and surpassing combustion engines and electric-vehicle batteries (EVBs). Akshay and his team intend to disrupt the energy sector with this product, a graphene-enhanced aluminium fuel cell, a green, quiet, and powerful alternative to conventional sources of energy. SECTIONS 00:37 Experimenting with Graphene
03:47 India’s First Graphene Startup
07:52 Raising Two Rounds of Funding
13:06 The $50 Million Month
19:25 The Challenges of Raising a Series A
24:45 Aluminium as a Source of Fuel
26:40 The Future of Log 9 Materials

Must watch if you are keen in Engineering Material stocks
Regards

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What is the level of NPAs expected in March 2021? How does it compare to the historical levels? Find out more regarding the current state of banking sector because of the pandemic. Good read

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I find useful, hence sharing it.

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Good introductory article about BFSI Industry (10 min read)
https://finmedium.com/2020/08/bfsi-industry-dismantled-10x10y/

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Interesting article analyzing the business model of movies (and also the COVID impact)

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https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-08-20/toughest-finance-job-in-india-keeps-yes-bank-ceo-awake-at-night

Systematic buy and sale
or
Averaging up and de-averaging down stock movement
Looking for article / video etc.
Please suggest.
Thanks.

Nice video from Samit Vartak on his style. The crux of the matter is to try to have very high earnings growth at much below market valuations (replicate Buffett of 1960s than Buffett of 2000s).

https://indianinvestingconclave.com/recordings/99

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Good interview where the DPIIT secretary is talking about the production linked incentive schemes in India recently announced by the government:

Some short notes:

  • These PLI schemes are linked to the incremental value addition that is being done by the company.
  • They are also paying a lot of attention to the quality of the Indian export because they realise that the quality of the Indian exports has to improve for more exports to happen
  • Empowered group of secretaries has been set up to take inter-ministerial decisions because they realised the importance of taking quick decisions.
  • CNBC TV18 sources have told them that one of the next set of industries that are ready for incentive linked production schemes are actually the battery manufacturing industry.
  • The secretary points out that the criteria for identifying the appropriate industries for the production linked incentive schemes is to think about which industries add value in India and job creation and where India has an edge in the manufacturing value addition.
  • The tariffs the government is imposing on imports are for a limited duration and they will be aligned to the global standards and they are meant to give a boost to the Indian a production lines but they will be phased out eventually.
  • The secretary said that the response (to the PLI scheme) has been very good for mobile and electrical appliances manufacturing.
  • A lot of manufacturing Pharma manufacturing companies that came on CNBC told that they are not taking advantage of the incentive link schemes because the land costs are very high and the production linked incentive schemes are only for Green field not for brownfield expansions.
  • The DPIIT secretary said that we have launched a portal to explore industrial land which is available even by GPS coordinates. These are lands with infrastructure.
  • The ministry of labor is undertaking massive exercise in simplification of labor laws.
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Successful investors fall among one of the two broad category of investment styles. Notably, both have flavor of value and growth investing:

Momentary investor : At the outset, it has nothing to do with momentary trading. Perhaps, it is the finest form of value investing technique. The style is not easy to master as it needs significant investment of time, efforts and energy. Having said that, this should not discourage investors from learning this style.

Modus Operandi: A momentary investor buys scripts deep, independent of market voices when valuations quote below intrinsic values (note: intrinsic value is not a static subject and its understanding may vary from one individual to another). He hold onto these stocks until a point where valuations stop supporting the underlying fundamental facts or the premise of buying at first place gets defeated due to rapidly changing internal factors or external environment. Such kind of investors know the art of playing cycles through experience or/and rigorous back-testing. Without being asset class or sector agnostic, they rotate freely from one sector /asset class to another basis the availability of value on table.

Real-life examples : Respected Prashant Jain and S.Naren.

Hoarder: On relative basis, it is a much simpler style of investing. Learning a ‘hoarder’ style involves lesser application of intellectual skills and more of temperament. In other words, patience is the single most differentiating factor between the two styles.

Modus Operandi: Before investing, a hoarder needs to build a long term view on character, quality and earning trajectory of the companies. Once established, he wait for prices to fall/crash below intrinsic values before initiating a buy (note: intrinsic value is not a static subject and its understanding may vary from one individual to another). Notably, he buys deep and in a pragmatic fashion. Timing of initiating coverage is the most important feature in this style (note: there could be a long time gap between building conviction and commencing buy on a script). After first purchase, the hoarder steadily accumulates the scripts during intermediate falls swayed by temporary business slowdowns or market panics. He believes in the idea of holding onto scripts over longer period irrespective of volatility in prices. Chiefly, he never think about hitting the sell button, although exit decisions can be taken owing to quality concerns or personal reasons i.e. requirement of funds etc. Another caveat to exit decision could be selling an overvalued or in some circumstances an undervalued position, if a more juicy opportunity is available.

Real-life examples: Normally, promoters and company employees are pure play hoarders, but it is difficult to classify them as full-time investors. In investing arena, legendary investor and respected Mr. Buffet can be deemed as one of the greatest hoarders.

To conclude, before entering the markets, a retail investor should decide which hat to wear basis his EQ and IQ abilities and follow the style throughout his investing journey.

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Personal debt is going down

Credit-card debt in the U.S. and other advanced economies has fallen. Fewer people are late on their credit-card payments. Consumer demand for new borrowing—through credit cards, personal loans and even pawnshops—is down sharply.

The main reason, according to economists and financial executives, is government stimulus programs launched in the U.S. and other advanced economies that have worked unexpectedly well. The flood of money, along with debt-relief measures such as deferred-mortgage and student-loan payments, has stabilized the finances of many households and even left some in better shape than before the pandemic—at least for now.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumers-flush-with-stimulus-money-shun-credit-card-debt-11596373201

How Robinhood is fleecing the very customers it was supposed to democratise

Welcome to the stock market, Robinhood-style. Since February, as the global economy collapsed under the weight of the coronavirus pandemic, millions of novices, armed with $1,200 stimulus checks and nothing much to do, have begun trading via Silicon Valley upstart Robinhood—the phone-friendly discount brokerage founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev, 33, and Baiju Bhatt, 35. The firm has added more than 3 million accounts since January, a 30% rise, and it expects revenue to hit $700 million this year, a 250% spike from 2019.

The problem is that Robinhood has sold the world a story of helping the little guy that is the opposite of its actual business model: selling the little guy to rich market operators with very sharp elbows.

Instead of taking fees on the front end in the form of commissions, Tenev and Bhatt would make money behind the scenes, selling their trades to so-called market makers—large, sophisticated quantitative-trading firms like Citadel Securities, Two Sigma Securities, Susquehanna International Group and Virtu Financial. The big firms would feed Robinhood customer orders into their algorithms and seek to profit executing the trades by shaving small fractions off bid and offer prices.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2020/08/19/the-inside-story-of-robinhoods-billionaire-founders-option-kid-cowboys-and-the-wall-street-sharks-that-feed-on-them/

The cart full of mobile causing traffic jam on google maps teaches us a lot more

We shape our tools and thereafter our tools shape us. Google Maps provides a particularly illustrative example of that relationship. Not only is it a closed system, with little transparency around what data informs it and how it’s used, but Google Maps also uniquely shapes the physical world. If it picks up a traffic jam—real or fabricated—it might redirect vehicles to less-traveled streets, in turn putting strain on infrastructure that wasn’t built for the extra volume.

Systems people take for granted involve inputs and outputs, and that they themselves are sometimes both. It shows how simple it is to fool a product in which people put tremendous amounts of faith. And it illustrates how maps aren’t neutral, either in their creation or their interpretation.

Corporate espionage

For as long as there has been commerce, there has been espionage. The methods for spying on competitors have changed over time, but the desire to uncover a rival’s secrets has not. Here’s a sample of some notable cases of corporate espionage.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2011-09-20/famous-cases-of-corporate-espionage

Is the future of a car not a car??!!

Firstly, autonomous driving doesn’t actually seem to be ready for the reality of messy, complicated streets that are teeming with humans. Most experts now agree that full self-driving tech is far from ready — and in fact, may never be ready. That is a stark contrast from the claims from some companies that insist it’s already here.

Further, self-driving cars face another problem of their own making: Their various sensors and safety technology is actually making human-driven cars a safer than their autonomous brethren. As just one example, automatic emergency braking has already reduced rear-end collisions by 50 percent, and the National Transportation Safety Board believes this figure will eventually rise to 80 percent. It seems that predictive or avoidant technology, combined with the knowledge of a human driver, is a better solution to the problem of collisions and injury than cars that just drive themselves.

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Both are articles are connected to each other hence mentioning both.

  1. What Doesn’t Seem Like Work? by Paul Graham: To the point essay, where Paul suggest that you should ask a question to yourself – “What seems like work to other people that doesn’t seem like work to you?”.
  2. How To Do What You Love by Paul Graham: After reading the above article I would request you to read this one. It dives deep into how to decide what you love to do and how to start working towards it.

Hope people find it interesting.

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Journey of Shree Cement under Shri HM Bangur

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The article talks about impact on stock valuation from Fed stimulus and expected stimulus.

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Very good post

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Professor damodarans latest market update.

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