44 Harsh Truths About Human Nature - Naval Ravikant (4K)
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Haven’t seen the video, found this interesting breakdown on Twitter on Mar-a-lago Accord to trigger Japanification of China (long read)
https://x.com/sahil_vi/status/1907624655399289016?t=igCbbQEwFo298-kIxSgR1Q&s=08
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Those who dont have time to read all the books that charlie recommended can listen to book summaries done by the podcast https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTiLo_I804gbK5nf80ijFS5ZqxyZP8Xr0&feature=shared. or can listen on spotify Unsupported browser
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Old Bridge Strategy Note: Tariffic Times Ahead!!! (8-Apr-25)
Macro Challenges
The macro environment will remain fluid for a while. At times like this, discussing valuations and stock prices may not be really material. Till the emotions settle, asset prices would at best tend to drift. For a while, Indian equities have been a pricey asset class to invest in, today, it’s reasonable.
On the other end, corporates continue to get increasingly cash rich. It may be a wait and watch in an environment like this. It is unlikely that there is any large capital expenditure cycle coming through, given the environment
Some Scenario Building - Our Take
• The US seems to want a trade balance, not an import ban
• It’s unlikely that a developed country wants/needs to compete with a developing nation for low-skilled jobs
• Low-margin products will continue to be manufactured out of developing countries. No signs of that changing
• Tariffs may be inflationary (take prices higher) for the US, and it could end up being deflationary (lowering prices) for the rest of the world as globally we are already surplus on manufacturing capacities
• Countries with a manufacturing trade surplus would be the most affected in the new ways of doing business. All countries incrementally would want to maintain trade equilibrium. This will keep the global market volatile and guessing for direction
• Demand destruction will be real. However, higher inflationary pressures, as prices of end products increase, could be good for corporate profitability
• Devaluing currencies may not be the optimum way of solving the current problem at least in the near term
A Positive Spin on the Outcome?
While we all are looking at the negativity of the trade and the slowdown, what will transpire is a release of cash from virtually all industries that are inventory-led in the USA. This can lead to a small opportunity by itself. Any company/industry operating in an uncertain environment is unlikely to invest in fixed assets – they may, however, invest in creating efficiencies.
From an India Point of View
For any developed country, India is a large market, we house the world’s largest population. It’s a futuristic market no one would want to miss out on or antagonize, in the medium to long term. As far as the current status goes, we have been treated with kid gloves on – warned, not punished.
Our recent interactions with our portfolio companies indicates some recalibration at their end, due to some element of the prevailing uncertainty, but it’s early into the cycle to conclude on the way forward.
Virtually all businesses out of the west are struggling to relook their supply chains located in China, Vietnam, Far East Asia, and Mexico. We are currently at the bottom end of the food chain; we seem to be positioned slightly better than most of the other countries around us.
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Do you have a full pdf format of this article
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Rajeev Thakkar on Investing During Bear Markets, Cash Strategy, PPFAS Strategy | Money Mindset
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Warren Buffet’s solution for trade deficit. This article is dated November 10, 2003. At FY 2002, the trade deficit was slightly higher than $400 billion and at FY 2024, the trade deficit of USA stands at $918 billion.
Warren Buffet recommends issuing Import certificates to American exporters and allowing imports proportionate to exports. That way USA could become net exporters again. I believe Warren’s idea is better than high tariffs leading to trade wars and worse hampering the free market.
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Market Outlook & Portfolio Update - April 2025 | Abakkus Asset Manager Private Limited
Watch here
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Performance update 
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At 35 minutes, Rishabh discussed about all etf portfolio.
The all-weather portfolio strategy includes Low volatility ETFs, Momentum ETFs, Gold ETFs etc.
This is very interesting.
Do anyone has more information about their PF constructions. Do they have one or multiple schemes? Do all their PMS just have ETF only, mean to say no direct stock investment? Thx
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Important snippet:
- The US national debt has increased significantly from $6 trillion in 2000 to $36 trillion by 2025.
- The traditional relationship where money flows into US bonds when equities fall is no longer holding – (My opinion – selling of US stock market may provide liquidity to EM including Indian market)
- The world is moving towards a multipolar system, where each country operates more independently. India is well-positioned due to its non-aligned status and large population.
- WTO’s influence is waning in the current global scenario.
- India is acting independently of the US, a significant change from past trends.
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Snippets:
- America would consistently outperform other economies, describing it as a bubble. Recently 80% incremental equity money was going to USA market. That was short of bubble.
- Trend is shifting away from US tech companies, Dominance of top tech companies is declining.
- Trump’s tariff strategy involves starting with extreme demands and settling for less, claiming victory even if the outcome is far from the initial proposal. Current tariff of 2%, if it goes to 10% that is great for Trump, however it may seems down to 10% from average 26% which is now.
- 10% tariff rate could reduce America’s economic growth by almost 1%.
- Increased capital flows into emerging markets, including India, could offset the negative effects of trade.
- India should engage more in trade and reduce its distrust of China. Many of the fastest-growing trade routes no longer involve America.
- China needs to shift its economy to be more domestic consumption oriented rather than export dependent. Also need to change their views on territory grabbing type mentality.
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