Granules India Ltd

I read about that in a recent Moneycontrol pro article on the impact of Coronavirus on the chemical & pharma industry.

Even I tried to search but couldn’t find anything related to that.

Also with reference to the Emkay report, what they mean to say is they can source the KSM for Ibuprofen from IOL Chemicals.
Is that right?

Yes, correct!
The BASF Texas plant reopened long time ago.
Such mis-info keeps going around, such as this, where Texas is in Germany and the German plant has already been built/operational (then shutdown) ! :roll_eyes:

Disc: IOLCP is 14% of holdings @ 285.

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To be precise, one of the possible ingredients is “Propanoic acid”.

IBB to Ibuprofen, common method is shown below and does not seem to need the Propanoic acid!

Source: (search for “Propanoic”)

Yes, when first discovered by Boots, it was made from Propanoic acid.
The method is now most commonly used. Only other reagent required is Acetyl chloride (CH3COCl) and looks like H2 and CO.

source:
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/242/5/052001/pdf

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If it mostly revolving around Ibuprofen, Vinati Organic provide raw material for Ibuprofen.
And last year it was the cause to get higher earning in Vinati Organic.
How is your though on this?

image

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If this turned true then it would be really turning point for company.

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Granules had stated that the reason they had taken a stake in Biocause was to get assured supply of the raw material that they needed for their manufacturing. After Chinese curbs related to pollution issues, manufacturing these raw materials had become costly and there were frequent shutdowns of the Biocause plant. Hence both the objectives were gettting defeated - low cost and assured supply. Hence they decided to sell sell their stake in Biocause. But long before that they had already made arrangements to source these materials from alternative suppliers - they had mentioned European suppliers I think (but not sure of this).

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Restriction on API export : Impact analysis

Mr KPs view on export restriction

  • Export is NOT banned rather restricted, now company has to apply to dgft for export permissions and they will permit based on past export history
  • Some shipment may spill to next month
  • Paracetamol API / raw material supply delayed by a week from china
  • Granules has inventory for next 10 days / there may be a gap of 2-3 days without inventory / next shipments are in water- no air lifting (as transportation costs have gone higher)
  • Q4 revenue may possibly fall (due to procedural delays at dgft) & will spill over to next quarter
  • Don’t see any disruption in margins & don’t want to exploit Indian market and will go with long term contracts
  • There will be increase in raw material cost
  • API demand is high in India & prices have gone up, as production has increased but exports not happening hence expect prices to come down in few days

Update on [pledge]

My personal view - promoters released old pledge created on lower levels and created another pledge on higher levels effectively reducing pledge percentage.

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There is gonna be a buy back at Rs. 200

Promoter will unpledge most of the share, after buy back mostly 2-3% will be pledged.

They have recently created a fresh pledge and rough calculations show that the pledge will be around 8% (or greater) even after buyback & planned release of pledge by promoters.

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https://scrip.pharmaintelligence.informa.com/SC141859/Granules-India-Buyback--Ray-Of-Hope-During-Coronavirus-Turmoil

Surprise increase in promoter pledge

Its contradicting their plan shared during buyback plan & recent concalls

This looks like additional pledge to cover a margin call triggered by drop in share price. once the buy back is complete in a few weeks, it should go down.

Did anyone attend today’s concall? I kept calling but couldn’t get thru.

Are retail investor allowed to join such investor calls? I have never attempted other than routine quarterly / Annual concalls after result / AGM

Yes this today’s call was exceptional…to address the impact of corona on the business. The call was open to all.

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Here is link to today’s call.

On my pledge front I would like to mention that though the margin cover is very comfortable with the lenders, I had pledged more of my shares, just in case there is a drop in share price due to the current volatility in the market. This was done as a matter of abundant caution. The pledge now stands at 45.4% of my personal shareholding compared to 29.8% previously. It is also 16.1% of the total equity share capital of the company compared to 10.6% previously. Once the buyback is completed, this pledge will come down significantly to around 4-5% of total equity share capital of the Company.

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Researchbyte is doing an amazing service to investor community by recording and promptly making transcript available for others to use. There is a 30 min con call video available here. I am sure there are much more details in the con call than what Granules published to the exchanges.

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