Can anyone provided this Angel broking report on GIC HF ?
Seems a good buy due to low mktcap vs huge opp size & govt incentives and tailwinds for the HFC sector.
Discl- Invested since March April 17.
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gic.pdf (296.9 KB)
You can go thru this report by edelweiss. The report is available freely over the net.
Invested since lower levels.
GIC Housing finance - link in pdf from Diwali pick- by angel broking.
http://web.angelbackoffice.com/research/archives/fundamental/company_reports/Diwali%20Top%20Picks%20October%202017.pdf
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Link from katalystwealth.com
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Recently gic housing finance had some investorâs meet with some institutions. I am trying to look into the outcomes of various investors meet of GIC Housing finance but could not find much information.
Can someone please share with me some inputs for better understanding about the outcomes. Thanks in advance
Q2 GNPA now above3%.
Worst asset quality and slowest growth among all the housing finance companies.
Trades at 3x current P/B which is not cheap by any means for such numbers.
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FY18 highlights
Disbursements grew 31%
Op leverage at play with staff and other expenses growing in low teens
PAT grew 24%
LAP grew slower than housing portfolio and is still a very small % of the pie
GNPA down to 2.34% as compared to Q3 GNPA of 3%+
Stock at 13 times FY18 earnings and 2.2 times FY18 book.
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Can Someone give detail about Q1 result?
Q1 result is not published as of yet. It was to be published on 2nd August 2018 but it was postponed due to IND-AS migration as permissible by SEBI.
Discl. Holding from lower level.
I see a lot of fluctuations in NIM from quarter to quarter in Edelwess report.
In AR of FY 18 NIM for FY 17 & FY 18 are 2.86 and 3.15 respectively. Spread for GIHF is very low at 1.39 & 1.46 only.
This edelwiess report of Aug 17 is claiming NIM at 4.4% in Q1FY18.
Where Edelwiess is getting its data from?? there is lot of difference between 3.15% and 4.4% of NIM
Q1FY19 EPS at 9.18 vs 8.58 YOY
Awaiting details on NPA, NIM and SpreadsâŚ
Whatâs the view on this now? Seems quite attractive at these levels.
Relook at GIC Housing Finance-cut 01-Business view
Book value as on 31-03-2020 is Rs 234.55.
Dividend income in last 05 years (01-04-2020 to 31-03-2025)-Rs 22 i.e 9% of 31-3-20 book value
Book value increase-Rs 234.55 (31-3-20) to Rs 364.78 (31-3-25) i.e. 55% of 31-03-2020 book vaue.
So, gain, in 05 years is 64% of 31-03-2020 book value.
Relook at GIC Housing Finance-cut 02-Investment view
Cut 01 is looking at the company from business performance point of view.
Cut-02 looking at it from investment perspective-
The stock is available at 50% discount (approx) to book value.
Assume, the discount/book value growth remains same after 05 years also.
In that case, investment of Rs 100 will lead to dividend income of 9%2=18%.
Book value increase is 55%.
Total return =55+18=73%.
Relook at GIC Housing Finance-cut 03-increase in discount to book value
In cut-02, assume that discount of price to book value widens to 75%.
Then book value will go up from Rs 100 to Rs 155, but price will go down from Rs 50 (50% of book value) to Rs 38.75 (25% of book value). Adding, Rs 92 (dividend income) gives Rs 56.75 i.e. return of 13.5%.
Relook at GIC Housing Finance-cut 03-decrease in discount to book value
In cut-02, assume that discount of price to book value lessens to 25%.
Then book value will go up from Rs 100 to Rs 155, but price will go up from Rs 50 (50% of book value) to Rs 116.25 (75% of book value). Adding, Rs 9*2 (dividend income) gives Rs 134.25 i.e. return of 169%.
Further, liability side is not an issue/rating is pristine, limited scope for fraud (borrowers are small in size, promoter is Govt owned)
So, we have an investment that currently, over a 05 year horizon, has a low chance of loss, reasonable chance of nearly 75% return and an upside case of 160% returns.
Key watchout-Negative-GIC taking steps to divest.
Key watchout-Positive-Stronger than past performance, rerating at higher P/BV valuations.
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Relook at GIC Housing finance-Expense side (w.i.p)
Employee expenses have grown from Rs 42.53 crore (2019-20) to Rs 70.23 (2024-25). It is CAGR of 11%, there was growth each year under this head.
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RoE was 8% in FY25 and will be 7-7.5% in FY26.
Between FY20 and FY25, avg RoE was 11%.
Though current NPA has halved from FY20 NPA, this fall in RoE is the reason for stock again reaching <0.5 P/B.
If RoE improves to 10% and the stock is still available at <0.5 P/B, then this stock is a good investment. Right now, LIC Hsg has better value than GIC Hsg.
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