Thanks Nibin for the perspective. Couple of points -
a) TCI Express also had revenue and profit de-growth in last couple of years but is trading at EV/EBITDA of 20 so isn’t ratio of 10 too low for combined entity?
b) Went through the audio of their recent analyst meet. Their new MD is Ketan Kulkarni who was part of Blue Dart earlier. He has aggressive plans in Air Express..Plus his focus on improving service quality seems impressive, they expect revenue growth to be 10%+ as well as EBITDA growth to be 20%+ CAGR till 2028. Considering conservative estimate of 10% for both also..we get FY26 EBITDA as around 230 crores. Gati’s average EV/EBITDA is around 13 for last 10 years so that will result in market cap of around 3000 crores. And share price of Rs 20-21. Is this too far fetched? Do let me know your views!
Couple of years before management was guiding for 3000 cr revenue within 3 year . But actual revenue was degrown and they dropped that guidence when new ketan took charge . So I am bit skeptical about management guidance. They were able to improve ebita is a good sign but volume growth is still not visible. I am also invested in hope of future performance but need to wait till management delivers
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