I’m confident in the structural demand in the long term but cautious on timing in the short term.
Things I will track are EPR enforcement clarity, rPET demand pickup, segment mix shift & capacity utilization.
(Disc: Invested with Tracking Position)
Surprisingly, despite a crude shortage noone is talking about Ganesha Ecosphere when it’s rPET /rPSF is finally viable against virgin materials.
All retail and institutional momentum lovers came into the stock on EPR hopes when rPET wasn’t even viable against virgin PET. However, anyone who tracks spreads will see the following
Virgin PET Spot Granule Rate: ~INR133/kg
rPET Spot Rate: INR 114 to 117/kg
Scrap Rate: ~54/kg (South India)
Unlike earlier, when scrap cost INR 40-50/kg and rPET traded at INR 90-99/kg, implying a rough gross margin range of around INR 40-50. This margin basis the above numbers is at INR 60i-ish or higher levels per kg. Today, the company has EPR, is adding capacity, and has earning momentum till the war continues.
Virgin PSF is also up INR 25 or so from the pre-war scenario, while RM for these guys is around INR 13-14 on the spot from the pre-war scenario. Chances are the company has been able to more than pass on its cost increases basis the spot (this segment struggled heavily in FY26).
Reliance is saying that it has never seen a shortage of this degree.
Yet, as always is the case w fallen cos., noone is talking about these changes. This is a long oil vol. trade wo any windfall tax rn. Ofc, new capacity remains a concern but if oil isn’t coming down sharply, it’s a good hedge in the portfolio.
Disc.: recently bought and tracking.
@IsaacAsimov
Whats the source of RAW material & spot prices data ?
Is it indian data specific or general world market ?
And where can someone track these prices ? & how frequently is it updated there ?
Most of the time, you need to be in touch with informal/formal recyclers for these pricings, I was in Delhi for Plasti Indian Conference in Feb and received different quotes for prices from different suppliers but it did give me some sense.
I will quote prices of Feb 2026 based on machine suppliers (think starlinger, erema), and peers of ganesha (think JB Ecotex, Indorama Dhunseri JV, etc)
105-110
105-110
104
90-95
103
100-105
Ofc everyone has different quality, margins etc but you can get a rough sense. Similarly, I had collected Scrap Bottle Prices as well as vPET prices. The consensus was the Food Grade rPET was selling at 10-15% premium to vPET back then and reason was that these prices are affected based on scrap bottle prices, and rPET manufacturers want to maintain margins.
Note : These are oral prices quoted by sales team, take them as a grain of salt
Disc : Invested and tracking since 1+ year.
