Fdc ltd

If Carlyle has valued it at 4000 crores and market cap must double or the share price must go to above 200 rs. If they buy 65% then they must buy another 25% which will trigger de-listing so they may have to pay a lot more than the offer price to promoters.

Saw promoter on cnbc coming and denying any news of stake sale. But this is usually the first thing promoters trying to sell off the company tend to say.

Lets see how things unfold.

why they try to hide from shareholders? is there any benefit in hiding?

fdc seems to have broken out of its consolidation phase and from an inverted head and shoulders pattern.

comments on charts.

Hi Hitesh,

You are perfectly right. Here is the chart of FDC on Point and Figure:

One can see very clearly, that the stock had made a triple bottom at 84. ( See three “O”).The stock after making a triple top at 94 ( see three “X”) and a spread quadruple top (See four “X”) has broken out and touched 104. If the stock crosses 108-10 and then 114 it will make a new high. The stock is now a momentum stock as the one week SMA has cut the five week SMA from below. See the chart

Remember momentum well as one can make a lot of money here. See Kokuyo Camlin chart too. The stock is in for a break out now.

i bought it at 102. Will i get opportunity to make an exit?

help help pls

consider this as tution fees. Never buy a stock unless you have conviction in the stock. and never buy stock that has run up a lot. Most of the stocks always cool off after initial rise. Thats the time you get to study the stock and decide on investment worthiness of stock.



help help pls

consider stock.

This has to be one ofthe most important lesson in stock market investment. Almost all of us would have gone through these motions during intial part of our investment phase.


But i bought thinking that stake sale is for real. if its real then i am sure the kind of valuations its trading, the buyer will pay more. With 400 crores in cash and equivalents, the enterprise value is just at 10 PE.

If I were you I wouldnt worry too much because by itself the company is quite attractive and if the growth momentum shown in last two quarters continues, then it may keep its uptrend intact.

FDC is a solid portfolio bet and one should not worry about short term market gyrations. I can understand your pain having bought near the top but if one were not able to digest 10-15% downside in a portfolio bet (here it is close to 6-7%), then one shouldnt be investing at all.

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i am ok with the fall but the money i put in is meant for another stock which i wanted to buy when it will fall. the stock was tv18 broadcast. But now my capital is blocked.

@Rakesh: In markets one has to have patience for things to play out. Easy money is never easy :slight_smile: In Equities never invest money which would be needed over short term.

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Hi Rakesh,

Investment in a stockis about conviction inthat company. So if you are convinced that tv18 broadcast will be a superior bet over FDC then you should move the money there without any delay. Loosing money is not a good feeling, but if u have conviction on a stock u will ride over this and more often than not will have hansome gains. The most important thing as Hitesh put it is the lesson that u take away.

lets hope by next week i will be able to sell for 104 rupees.

Hitesh: Why is unichem good company. Trading at 30+ PE. Erratic earnings.

Lot of people would have bought into FDC on the news of takeover. the recent fall is bcoz of the same guys selling the stock after the news has fizzed out. We should track the fall and as and when it stabilizes(i.e. all the weak hands are off) we can go for a buy. This may be blessing in disguise for people to enter FDC at a lower level.

If the takeover news comes out to be true in the future nothing like it.

Disc: I am planning to move from Granules to FDC with this opportunity.

go through the whole unichem thread from beginning to end and you will probably guess the answer.

As I said let things settle down. I am not sure at what point things will settle down.

May be people with technical expertise can suggest at what point this stock has a resistance to offer.

Just a quick note Rakesh, EV and P/E cannot come together.

We need to compare apples to apples and not apples to oranges.

EV takes into calculation both Equity and Debt, hence right matrix to consider on the earnings side is EBITDA or operating income before depreciation, interest payments and taxes. Hence the correct multiple to look at is EV/EBITDA

PAT or Net profits is equity earnings which is compared with Equity (Market cap) hence the right multiple is P/E or Market Cap/PAT


EV/EBITDA for FDC is ~ 9 times which is not very cheap. Note that EV is less than Market Cap as net debt is negative. P/E is around 14 times (based on Mar 2012 earnings)