1…Prediction of market is futile exercise.No one can predict market with 100% surety.
2…Rather than predicting market ,we should keep investing in good stocks at reasonable cost
3…Everytime when market crash,people think this is totally different type of crash that is not coming back to previous level.But in long run it always peak.
As per me ,pharma and agro are good sectors at present shutdown, because demand of them will not much affected,though supply may be temporary affected
Spanish flu was even worse, some 50m people died but it didn’t bring the Great Depression for some reason
This time as well markets won’t collapse the reason being that when many people expect a crash it doesn’t happen
Every one expecting a crash have repositioned their portfolio either going into cash or moving in ultra safe stocks
Definitely many people moved to cash or safe stocks from mid to March end. Though some people would have entered again due to FOMO, many more would have withdrawn / reduced exposure in April / May due to cash requirement / crisis stretching out beyond earlier expectation. US is special situation due to enormous stimulus being provided.
Personally I sold off stocks by mid-March and reduced MF exposure in April. Now watching the situation closely with entry based on number of new cases, impact on demand for goods & valuation of identified stocks.
there could always be this case of - this thing could have been done better or that thing should not have been done or this was ill timed or that was too late.
Given the demographics of our country, the rich-poor divide, the sheer number of density in places like mumbai, the sheer indiscipline of people to stay home and so many other things, we have still done quite well. Weather it is luck or weather it is due to govt can be debated any other day when Covid is behind us.
I dont think it is fair to say that less cases in vietnam ans malaysia is their success but less cases in India is our failure of testing and classification.
I work on ship and since February, have been to Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore and have seen first hand how seriously (or jokingly rather) people take the virus here.
Singapore who took pride in controlling it earlier without a lockdown is today suffering. remember that whole of Singapore and its population is smaller than Mumbai and still its numbers by far exceed that of Mumbai. This even when Mumbai has its share of irresponsible citizens not following the lockdown guidelines.
Our huge population will always mean that howeverr large testing we do, it will always not be enough by conventional statistics of tests per million or so on.
I think one must understand the emotions of the migrant workers that look forward to being with their family in times of crisis. it would be just inhumane to see every migrant worker as a pawn and just a worker in this economic cycle and to be used that way.
I feel they have all the rights to go to their family and i am quite sure they will come back when things have settled.
It was expected that lockdown will bring down the infection and it was true. However few isolated incidents have spread the infection to far and wide leading to this situation eg a factory in Noida where a visitor caused huge infection throughout north India.
Secondly in our system, the states are independent.Today the states in big trouble r listening to central gov whereas the same states would not HV listened to it at all.
In summary,it’s always easier to look backwards and find faults but advising actions for future us too difficult like no responsible person or body has the plan as to how to lift the lockdown without backlash.
As much as I admire the openness and transparency in US, looks like even this has to be taken with a tiny pinch of salt, considering the election year and all the support and accusations Dr. Bright is getting.
I wish the crisis does not take the turn as he mentioned and also wish his warnings will be called predictions after the crisis is over, with the benefit of hindsight in the future.
The situation is troubling to all, as it is, so nobody wants this to escalate and get out of hand. The cascading effects on the economy, if something has to happen to US, is one thing and if the restlessness in US triggers a psychological breakdown, which happens more often in US, on a mass level, and if it becomes viral might evoke the same emotions allover the western world, will have devastating affects.
I pray this crisis has only economic impact and the impact subsides in a couple of years and does not start the beginning of the end.
While the pandemic by itself isn’t a “Black Swan”, the response to it is a Black Swan event, isn’t it?
World has seen pandemics, numerous companies shutting down, business sectors losing relevance all of a sudden, a few countries getting locked down during wars etc. But for the first time in human history, we’ve had most of the world under complete lock-down… almost zero travel, not just between countries but within countries, people getting out of their houses only for essential activities, a huge number of people doing WFH while it looks like a lot of companies might prefer continuing it even after lockdown gets over, behavioral changes related to hygiene, unprecedented drop in demand and supply of goods and services.
Companies and countries “might” have planned for epidemics, wars, accidents etc. But could they have predicted and then planned for what we are going through now? Doesn’t this make it a Black Swan event?
WHO has warn that pandemic may become endemic if it is not controlled.
When we study epidemic curves of active cases of other countries ,they are flattening.
But india has very dense population and i think, there are chances that corona may not be eradicated from india in near future or may become endemic in india
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The pandemic has sent the global economy for a toss with GDP lowest since the financial crisis and Great Recession ended in 2009 but the stock market which fell in first few weeks of COVID-19 have already made up most of the losses with WTI oil rallies 20.5% and Brent recovered $30 after three weeks. Dow Jones jumps 0.6% gets boost from Apple, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
I have made a ‘watchlist’ for corona virus that helps me track all data relevant to me, posting it here incase anyone wants to have a look at it
I tend to look at these announcements with a bit of skepticism till the actual vaccine is out for human use. There is a long way to that and the markets seem to be behaving irrationally. (They always do that )
Company in Adtech and AI/ML space which is unaffected due to corona and infact flying high
Does anyone think this company is under/over valued based on the investments(Series C, D etc.,) from US based PE firms it received so far as per Latest update on BSE
He is playing his odds. And that is how one becomes a billionaire, by betting big when odds appear to be in favour. Odds are in his favour because a real bear market like the 1929 one comes around once in a century. Presently, the dissonance between the ground reality and the stock market run is like never seen before.
I don’t agree to most of the article. He is basing his bet on the liquidity flood from US and EU in form of rate cut and “unending” FED support.
The Corona Virus threat is real! It’s not a prank or a hoax. India is going to get hit worst. Pain for Lenders, Real Estate and Auto. Disruption is on the cards.
GDP growth is going to be the slowest for one year, and Corona Infections still haven’t peaked out. Just the fear is going to cause much less consumer spending.
Now FED has no room to further cut interest rates. And unemployment is a crazy 13.3% (fudged, should be an apolcalytical 19%).
RJ is bull. WB IS BEAR.
Baap baap hota hai. Beta Beta.
I discovered that the article has an ulterior motive when it downplayed the effects of Corona Virus. RJ says its not a plague, just a flu because the Mortality Rate is low, 30% versus 4%.
What he ignores is, when the plague started out, it too had a low MR. But, when the patients werent getting the required and timely treatment, the MR became 30%.
For Covid-19 infections, once a patient starts to show symptoms, that means his immunity cannot control the virus, that is when he needs immediate medical attention. That is where India came short, during the plague and even now. Giving medical attention is an insurmountable task for the local governments. And the percentage of the people showing symptoms is very high, around 45%.
The threat of spreading will be worrisome due to one of the highest population densities in the world. No one has an “power point presentation” prepared for this, even if he does he’d better not make it public.
After UNlockdown 1.0, looking at the way people are behaving, some medical experts are furious and expecting infection peaks to go much higher from here.
The thought of this makes me worry. The public spending is going to be drastically cut down, and consumer confidence at an all time low.
Well said. The thing is it is not just about the pandemic either. The article completely glossed over the migrant labour issues. A lot of people have migrated from urban areas over the past couple of months. Some of them have walked/cycled 1000s of Kilometers! You think they will be back right on the next day after economy reopens ? Problems are much more deeper and structural actually.
P.S. Doesn’t mean I am advising to stay away from markets, as I am myself almost fully invested.
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