Commodity and Cyclical Plays

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Hi @madhavikkutti - Was looking for the historical price of Graphite electrodes with no luck.
Can you please share the link from where you are tracking the GE prices.

Thanks,
Pandi

Thanks @Raj_A_A for sharing the insight full article, good study on the GE story.

Hi @pandi.rao, I doubt if any site provides the historical prices. I track prices through various news articles. For instance, Sachit Jain from Vardhman Special Steels today told CNBC TV18 that, the GE price increased 6 times since May-17 and currently stands at around USD 15,000 per ton. Please watch the video here:

thanks @madhavikkutti for the details.

Monthly chart of Hind copper with Andrews pitchfork

This is for those who are long term fundamentally bullish on the prospects of hind Copper

The stock has today touched the downside target of 65ā€¦this is a good price to make additional purchase in Hind copperā€¦for the next few months, the stock may move along the lower forkline with a + or - 5 rupees price rangeā€¦or maybe even a 10 rupees rangeā€¦

but when the stock leaves the lower forklineā€¦then it moves towards the middle forkline

Disclā€¦holding a big qty at higher priceā€¦holding for long termā€¦

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Hear the above videoā€¦Graphite Electrode prices has shot up to $14500 / Ton

Perfect cycle playing out in front of us. Sugar, an upcycle of 2 years, superb wealth was created. And see, what is happening in downcycle, huge wealth gets destroyed. Luckily for me, it played out perfectly. Had exited sugar quiet a while ago. Timing is very important in commodity cyclical plays.

One of the slides in my presentation, talks about huge underperformance in downcycle. Seems to be playing out now.

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Jiten thanks for the guidance

One should accumulate now as the many stocks making new lows and down considerably

Your views on steel & copper cycle will be helpful

One should look at supply. Which is abundant in sugar. I am not investing in any sugar stock at this point.

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Invest in sugar once demand matches supply, which will happen close to 2022. Current demand is 25 MT, production guidance for this year is 29 MT. Sugar demand in India rising around 5% pa. Sugarcane yields are rising fast as well. And we are not able to export as international prices are way below ex Mill prices. SO unless there is some sort of government subsidy on exports, downslide will continue. Government may intervene to some extent but low sugar costs are not bad for the government in election year. There might be some pull back, but the downward movement will continue for next few years unless something big happens that changes this demand supply situation drastically.

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I think krrish sethā€™s question is abt investing in steel and copper cycle now, Please confirm

Steel, what has changed, except for a tweet. ? Negotiations will go on, proposals will be watered down.

Copper also remains strong, IMHO.

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Sorry for the dumb question Jiten. Which tweet you are referring to? I am interpreting that both steel and copper are in strong upmove, right?

Rgds.

Is someone tracking hydrogen peroxide? Ground level check suggests prices have risen steeply in last three months from Rs 30 /kg to Rs 65-86/kg for the standard 50% grade. Traders suggests shortage in the domestic market due to local players exporting, but unsure how reliable. Now, National Peroxide is a company that makes this product. It is the largest producer in India. It reported Dec quarter realization at Rs32/kg. So realization can be much higher in the coming quarters.
I can gather Indian demand supply but canā€™t get a hang on global demand supply.
Views invited.

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He is referring to the tweet by Donald Trump. The new trend in USA is policies are first discussed in social media. Today there is a new Tweet by him that he is eager to accommodate the western firends concern who stood by him at all times. As prophetically stated by Mr Jiten, negotiations will water down the proposals. Good Luck

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Meghmani organics is putting up a H2O2 plant. Capacity is expected to come live by Dec 2018.

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I did an industry analysis a few months ago-I am not sure if H2O2 can be exported. Its highly toxic and extremely hard to transport. I remember thereā€™s hardly any sea trade of H2O2. I would suggest verifying the export theory.

However, I remember there is a shortage in the Indian markets and buyers donā€™t have power due to lack of options, so in general prices could firm up if demand goes up since production is limited.

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Thanks for pointing this. I will try to gather more info on this from my industry contacts.

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https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/steel-output-cuts-the-new-normal-in-smog-prone-china/