Coffee can method

I don’t think anyone can say what a company can and will do after 10 years. To give you a hypothetical example, a simple thought of diversifying into an unrelated sector can occur to the owner of the company in the middle of the night, and he starts creating a plan the very next morning, and in 10 years, 40% of sales can come from this midnight thought.

A lot of things, technological, financial, geographical, constitutional, personal, familial can change in 10 years. So I think it is hard to say what can change, I think it was Jeff Bezos who said that the question of what will not change should be asked. Also, if there is no support of technology, governments, even people, sunrise sectors may not see growth as believed.

So while one can surely think and plan for 10 years, those 10 years should be divided into 3x3 or so. And if a company is performing more than our expectation, and if we are confident of the performance going even higher, we will always have the opportunity of buying more, but for higher price, which many follow. Some average down, some average up.

And there are a few threads more than 10 years old, you can look at them to know more about investing for 10 years.

And some investors too change with time, not all but some. What seemed like a good story may start looking like normal when one gains experience and finds better opportunities. Not everyone can afford staying invested for 10 years, even if they can, one may not be too happy with the result after 10 years. Age of the investor plays a role too. So there are some moving parts.

Just my thoughts, and I am a long term investor too along with short term views. I also want to see a few multibaggers in my PF, the kind of multibaggers which compounded slowly, but steadily over the course of 10 years, whose journey when I look back makes me happy.