This what happens when we invest in stocks with weak technicals.Fundamentals are superb no doubt in that but price will only increase when technicals supports.At the end of the day price as a whole everything which we as fundamentalist may not know, and i as investor will only benefit if price incease.I am also stuck in this stock since 2 years.
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disagree. cleanscience story has largely no play of technical but more fundamentals. there are moving parts in story that brough stock where it is today.
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@manthansoni1991 so fundamentally the stock/business has weakened from future perspective ? Seems like the syrup issue would be a fundamentally detrimental issue over long term ?
You can refer my posts above in this thread to see what did not work in story!!
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Going through all the discussions, we can arrive at an inflection point where valuation model( mathematics) is required to determine a margin of safety before entering any space. Graham model must have been the need of the hour of his time.
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Since long I was waiting for them to file commercial production of PC-1. It looks like what today they have announced is for it - production of Hydroquinone & catechol.
I am little bit surprise also, bcoz both of these products are used to make MEHQ & guaiacol by conventional method (the process which other manufacturer are using). There might be some other use. Not sure what is the rationale behind this step - Whether they want to produce MEHQ & guaiacol by conventional method also? Or they directly selling it to end customer for other use? Or selling it to their competitor to produce MEHQ by conventional method?
Also both the products are not high value product (Sub 5$). If they are making it by unique value chain then only it can garner better margins as indicated previously.
Lets wait for next concall to get better idea.
Also after that stake sale by promoter, there were lots of transfer of shares (gift) within promoter group. Did anyone studied it closely to gauge some conclusion ?
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Thanks for this information. So, I think they are doing backward integration for their some of the products (Not MEHQ). Also Siddharth himself shared problem of catechol. So, I think they might have figured out process which can yield more HQ then catechol or might find out use case of catechol. I was reading 2022 concalls & during those time HQ prices shoot upto 13$. So, make sense for them to secure raw material in-house & also sell excess production in market.
Also I guess, here product ramp-up & utilization will be very fast as they are going to use it captive purpose & same set of clients will be using it unlike total new product line like HALS which required lots of time for approval, get network of dealers etc.
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Do you feel getting back in? I feel worse is behind now. I am considering adding after Qtr result come out. I feel this Qtr will be muted as directed in concall. Tariff was still there entire Qtr, Next Qtr may be tarrif will be gone and new products will slowly contribute to topline. still open Q of customer loss in MEHQ in China. if that volume is absorbed, we may see good result in Q4.
The results are not good. Sales is down by 20% and profit 30%. Every week stock is making 52 week low
I listened to concall on same day. I was bit surprised to see information that could have been shared in last concall. Lost 1 customer in china with good volume in mehq. Continuous margin pressure. No clarity of improvement in next 2 quarters. Very unfortunate. I am not invested. Will continue to watch quarterly from sidelines if story turn around.
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Company lost customer in 4MAP not in MEHQ! MEHQ side pressure because of Lower price of HQ is causing Conventional players aggressive! Technologies moat still intact! This quarter is full reflection of all bad! With the US Trade deal and EU FTA prolonged pain in stock price reached to an End
What happened in this Quarter
Direct Sales to US got Impacted due to Tariffs added to this Second Order Impact plus Chinese customer backward integration in 4MAP! As per management also this was the base quarter even if the demand environment remains same
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Could you explain what is 4MAP,MEHQ,HQ for noobs understanding.
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Even in we can find in Clean science product catalog
I listened to the Q4 con call, the arrogance of Siddarth is still intact despite bad performance since last 3 years. The way he is giving 1 or 2 word answers reflects his arrogance. such arrogance runied the once famous @laxmiorganic, Dreamfolks as well.
I got some shares in IPO and sold @100% profits, i though 1200 is good area of accumulation but now its b/w 700-800. Even there are some spikes in Q4, what i can sence from the call is still feel lot of headwinds are there due to pricing and competativeness issues.
One good thing is that even there is not much growth in the topline, they are able to protect their margins ~40% in the last 3 years.
On the otherhand, nuvama came with a report of 66% upside target, anythougts from other forum members who are traking this company for FY27 tragectary.
Q4 Margins may not Sustain because of Top level Management not taken Performance Bonus approx 11Cr(or something) which is directly reflected in Q4 EBITDA!
Yes, 5% uptick in margins on account of this. GM also slightly improved QoQ but at similar level on YoY