Has anyone done any backtesting excercise
I know its probably difficult to search for cup with handle on data although there are sites that give maths
I am wondering just short and long term moving average cross back testing on historic closing prices ?
I have downloaded data since year 2000 to 2018 and want a headsup or a pointer if someone has a code in python, ruby or r would really appreciate.
LT : Stop loss hit on Friday and the news is also out now…
The reason why the proposal was flagged down is that the company had too much debt on it’s books. Essential a buyback would be funded by even more borrowings. This is like giving dividends out of borrowed capital.
The flagging down, means LT has too much debt. Which is not good.
Agree with the point. L&T is a major engineering and construction company. which always take borrowing to execute the projects. That’s the business model of the company. The total loan of the company stands at 1,23,553 Crores (D/E 1.94). But after paying an interest of almost 8093 crores, its still making a Net profit of 8103 crores per annum. In the present context, the 9000 crores may now may be used by the company to reduce its debt instead of using it for buyback. So I thought its good for the company though its a SEBI flaged action, if it happens that way. Its my outlook. Any comments?
Disclosure : Invested
Interesting handle formation in VIP Industries. Not too much correction or price volatility and tight-ish handle. Air passenger growth is the biggest hurdle right now in it breaking out. Plus the Q3 results are expected to be muted as impact crude price reduction will be lagged.
Mangalam Organics - The psychology of the (deep) Cup. Nov 14th and 19th saw large volumes and both these days flirted with 560 levels. One of these days was before Q2 results and another after, both equally irrational. About 44k shares were delivered on Nov 19th, a bulk of it post good numbers. Most of these shares must have hit the market again today as holders who were in the red from the day of purchase to 3 months, seeing at its peak a 30% drawdown (it hit 410 levels) from then must have thanked their stars and exited. That might explain the 576 to 528 fall today and the subsequent strength when the selling abated.
It has formed a bullish pinbar and managed to close at a fresh 52 wk closing high on a day that wasn’t great for the broader markets or for itself. 1.37 lakh shares traded with a 93k delivery today is the highest since early last year in terms of delivery. It has however gotten to a P/E of 8 as of today. Unsure how much higher it can/will go as it is still a commodity stock with a management that is uncommunicative on what’s driving the numbers. I think conservatively can expect 9-10 levels before next quarter which would still be another 15-20% upside from here.
Disc: Invested/Traded in the last few months. I am no expert and I get it wrong as many times as I get it right which is nothing to go by and also microcaps like these can sway to the whims of a few individuals and technicals can be unreliable. Please do your due diligence.
Some stocks that’s near the neckline, breakdown would bring further downfall, if they can hold, can see short term gains.
Sterlite Tech:
HDFC Life:
The breakdown could see IPO price levels.
ICICI Pru:
This could test all time low, can wait for some clarity.
Maruti
Though went below the support, it managed to hold, but on the verge of breakdown. If breakdown, the next support will come around around 5900-5850.
Disc: Not a buy/sell reco.
VCP Patterns:
Mark Minvervini’s VCP pattern is known to be a good breakout pattern. Its similar to the cup & handle pattern, when the cup & handle fails and if there’s a multiple handle like pattern appears while the contraction size reduced around half of the last contraction (something like first 20% contraction, then next contraction will be like 10-15% , then 3rd contraction becomes 5% and so on), Mark terms that as Volatility Contraction Pattern.
Contraction Ts:
Also, if one see such patterns in 52w high, then the uptrend is likely to continue. And he calls that as a super performer in infancy.
I’ve followed that pattern and gave a try at consolidation breakout, all of them worked with gains ranging from 5-14% and then saw some bearish signals and exited. Stoploss for these pattern are the level of latest contraction bottom.
Insecticides:
Exited upon evening star like pattern + RSI in overbought zone
Minda Corp:
After RSI hit overbought zone, stock struggled to move, again it hit overbought next in few days, so exited.
Alkyl Amines:
As anticipated, the breakout did happened, but the bad market pulled down. Didn’t buy as my order didn’t execute.
Aurobindo:
Expected to do another contraction, so entered at 710 and still holding.
Here the VCP setup is yet to complete, so need to be cautious.
Acrysil:
Like Alkyl, another one setup which got breakout and spoiled by bad market.
Disc: Once the setup are invalidated it may not work, Not a buy/sell reco.
You have mentioned a lot of patterns and i agree with you, hitesh2710 and phreakv6. As i had pointed out in contrarian investing thread before also; sugar has done well from that time. Cement too as observed seems to be forming good base. Other names i’d like to add to ur list which would make techno funda picks for 1-2 years would be Indiacem, Strides, Glenmark, Dhanuka, Tata steel(provided a bit more upside surpasses like 490-500).
iNVESTED in all of them
@phreakv6. I do not mean to sound obnoxious but since we both use investing.com charts for daily simple use, i suggest replacing RSi with STochRSI. You get crossovers slightly in advance to MACD cross which is very helpful. If using monthly chart with minor stochrsi cross, weekly always generates a buy which works very efficiently. 
Bulkowski calls them ascending scallops. In effect all you need is a flat trendline at the top and and ascending trendline joing lows and you’ll have a ascending triangle. Whichever way it works. You’re right about downside crack nullifying the patter.
Hi, Do you track textile sector ? Though most of them doesn’t show any sort of base, some are in the complex(time) correction, some are in sharp correction down around 80+%.
Really hope there’s no murky relation between DHFL & YES Bank.
Closer look in last few days.
A lot of such charts of YES & DHFL are doing rounds in social media.
EDIT: Tried linking another NBFC(IBHFL) with these cos:
Disc: This is purely chart observation only.
Tata Motors showing sort of inverted H&S, last time it happened in Sep-18, thanks to bad markets for spoiling the party. Now exactly before a big event it’s another inverted H&S sort of pattern, its again a make or break time.
On the other side Tata is moving to the top of the table in the customer satisfaction. Gotta read from this:
Upon googling found the source: https://india.jdpower.com/press-releases/2018-india-customer-service-index-mass-market-study. Hope the results stands by this.
Lets see if TaMo can hold the pattern and breakout or the market/results drag it down yet again.
Disc: Not a buy/sell reco.
IBULLS HOUSING CHART. Attached chart showing a rounding top and the stock precariously poised just at the support zone. Very interesting chart to see how it plays out.
axis bank has started making multi year highs. its a very long term chart and hence should be equally strong and bullish. i have a feeling that this outperformance will last for quite some time (maybe a year or two) and if the markets remain stable or mildly bullish , this stock will outperform. no current position as this being a expiry as well as the budget week.
i have the opposite view for the index and looks like a one way down move soon till 10200 is on the way. this will get negated if the index closes above 11050.
regards
sold 11000 call for the month of feb…
interesting times for the financial industry hitesh bhai. below 640 there will a massive bear squeeze for india bulls and chances are it might follow suit with dhfl. watching closely for price action to confirm what trens it will follow… thanks for the post
Agree. In the last 4 months or so (since Oct-2018 lows) Axis bank never looked like giving up, it was holding up nicely. It shown a clear breakout out of the complex correction pattern and starting a new impulsive wave.
