for me all i want is nifty to stabilize for some sustained redistribution bounces…
i have almost liquidated most parts of my core portfolio during the last run, some distribution is remaining …
for the trading pf which is also totally cash right now,manually booked gains , losses what ever there was in the positional plays a last week, with a clearer head now i am closely monitoring, the 200day wilder moving average which i trust more than any moving averages…
and nifty 50 i right at it…
the white line moving average is that one…
historically it has been the support of all the bull markets, and resistances for the bear markets…
i expect a rally form this over sold hole , specially interesting fact is, in the daily chart, the bank nifty is at this moving average and is describing a bullish divergence after breaking it today…
just sharing a personal experience…
regarding bank nifty, i have been scalping the bank stock charts last 2 weeks for which i have to use micro timeframes like 1 and 5 mins charts…last couple of days, the bulls were really making it difficult to short sell with comfort, the oversold situation was very visible, which was not the case last week… although well the market i think didnt know what to do at the end, so just “sell the Friday and go away”…
this is what happened with midcaps at the 200day wilder moving average, when it a;so displayed a bullish divergence like banknifty is doing right now…
why i am so much interested in a relief rally, is because pharma as a sector is just not correcting, the strong hands are there… one pause in the selling pressure might create a huge demand for the pharma free float… which has all completed accumulation , currently in phase d in wyckoff accumulation schematics, i have discussed the schematics before… and this has a propensity to markup…
where this is ultimately going to is anyones guess, but whats interesting this time compared to all the bull market ends, including 2008 is that, the bond market has entered a whole new territory… may be a bear market after 30years plus of bond yields on constant decline…
how this will come into the equity market, i am very skeptical…
one should be really concerned about the margin of safety and the fundamentals , from now on, while considering any risk asset… 2018 early correction, has taught me, a very important lesson, how much technical are important too…
taking out 9k on the nifty 50 should be very difficult for the bears…
coming week should be crucial decision point…