Guys what do you think about the Promoter selling? Especially MD Devendra Surana, his stake is down by ~4% in the company since Sep 2025
The promoter hasn’t sold any stake.
This is an ongoing reclassification due to demerger. The ~4% stake is currently reflected under public shareholding in the name of Bhagyanagar Copper Private Limited.
In fact, as per the credit report, the promoter is expected to convert debt into equity, which should lead to an increase in their stake.
2 Likes
Thanks @RocketMan , this helps
1 Like
Solid results
-
Debt reduced
-
Operating cash flow turned positive
-
62,000 EBITDA/tonne in Q4 at ~60% value addition.
The company is on track to become the most profitable copper player on a per-tonne basis among all listed peers.
-
FY26 average realization was ~₹962/kg, while current copper prices are ~₹1,300/kg, meaningful upside potential for FY27.
-
No inventory gains due to hedged operations, unlike some peers.
-
Expanded AI data centre busbar capacity.
With ~35,000 MTPA capacity and ₹1,300/kg copper, revenue potential is ~₹4,500 crore without further expansion.
As value addition scales from ~60% to 100%, EBITDA per tonne should improve further.
Future EPR-driven demand is not priced in at all.
Some disruption in Q1 is possible due to the Hormuz situation, but if one can look beyond that, significant valuation catch-up is on the cards.
9 Likes
Any idea about the 150 cr fund raise which they have mentioned in the concall?
Yeah, it will be used to support working capital, increase the share of value-added products, and fund further capacity expansion.
1 Like
I can’t find a single data point that explains why Vidya Wires is trading at 2.5x Bhagyanagar. If anything, it should be the other way around. Market’s wild sometimes.
2 Likes
My calculations suggest the company could get close to ~100cr PAT by FY27.
Management has guided for 20% volume growth, which takes output to ~30,000 MT. At 62,000 EBITDA per tonne, potentially even higher as value addition moves from 62% to 66%, that implies:
30,000 × 62,000 = ~186cr EBITDA
Which should translate to roughly 100cr PAT.
For context, Precision Wires is trading at ~8,000cr market cap with ~130cr PAT.
So what the “right” valuation for Bhagyanagar, is anyone’s guess. Also, the market doesn’t seem to be assigning any premium to backward integration (recycling) as of now.
I think the gap is largely due to lack of institutional coverage. That should change once the company crosses 1,000cr market cap.
8 Likes
we have a copper risk here because if copper price corrects then EBITDA margins can contract and the management have assumed a 5% year on year growth of copper price
and if we assume 100% utilization then we will reach EBITDA of 217 crores
so capacity utilization and copper price are the thing to watch out
if both falls then we can see pressure on company’s stock price
correct me where i am wrong so that we can improve our thesis
Absolute EBITDA, not EBITDA margins.
This holds true across most commodity-linked businesses, absolute EBITDA is influenced by underlying commodity prices. The same applies to jewellery retailers, gold financiers as well.
That’s why having a view on the underlying commodity is critical before forming a view on the company itself.
If you’ve read my earlier posts, I’ve tried to provide context around copper’s supply-demand dynamics.
Coming to the second part, current capacity stands at 35,000 MT, and with copper prices approaching 1,400/kg, the company can potentially achieve ~5,000 crore topline even without further expansion, so there’s still significant runway left.
On capacity expansion, management has indicated in earlier concalls that sufficient land is available at the existing facility, meaning incremental expansion is largely a function of adding more machines.
With the upcoming 150 crore fundraising, I do expect expansion plans to be announced as well.
3 Likes
Freeport Indonesia pushes back Grasberg copper restart by a year - The Business Times Freeport Indonesia pushes back Grasberg copper restart by a year - The Business Times
Everything going against copper production internationally. Prices might not come down sooner
1 Like
This is a great primer on Copper : - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dj3Ps8Gt0U
1 Like
so i am assuming 90-95% capacity utilization and 1250 copper price and 62000 EBITDA per tonne
so around 33000 tonne * 62000 EBITDA = 205 crores EBITDA
and it will easily get converted to 80 crores assuming 40% conversion of EBITDA to PAT
with 80 crores PAT and EBITDA margins of 5% it can command a price-to-earnings multiple of 20x so we can market cap of 1600 crores in next year.
This are very conservative guidance so after such a strong rally there is more steam in the rally according to my thesis
205cr ebitda will easily convert to ~110cr pat.
Anyways let’s see what happens.
Fair assumption but i am more conservative guy
1 Like