I listened today to the concall and went through the notes posted above which capture almost all the relevant details.
My impression is that a lot of recency effect is reflected in stock price. The issues in Assam are fresh in everyone’s minds and we are wired to extrapolate things into the future.
In the concall itself, management said that if situation remains as it was in late December, then the bank is past its worst phase in assam, and no more provisions may be needed.
There has been some effect of 41 crores due to change in accounting policy for processing fees which earlier were amoritised over the tenure of loan but now since all high cost loans of gruh are replaced by funds from bandhan, the amount has to be paid off now as the loans are retired.
Ex of gruh numbers, loan book growth is to the tune of 33%, which in current scenario seems good. NIMs which went down below 8% are likely to come back to 8% plus from next quarter onwards.
All throughout the concall most of the questions raised were regarding Assam situation and further provisions if any going forward.
Bandhan remains one of the long term structural growth stories which is likely to grow in the range of 25-35% CAGR for next few years but it might continue to be plagued with issues like agitation, violence, rural stress and so on and so forth. Long term investors should focus on such opportunities to acquire the stock when newsflow is negative but chances of long term story getting affected are low.
Not invested now but it remains in my watchlist.