kunal
can you find out details
1). what is white spot disease ? is it contagious ? what’s the worst case -can exports get rejected ?
2). can this spread quickly ? what’s the cause of this disease and how soon can it be controlled ?
3). is it caused by farmer’s invidual negligence or an outbreak ?
It’s important to understand details to understand the risks associated. succinctly put, please find out if it is a cough/cold equivalent or a malaria equivalent for a human ?
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This condition was first reported in Japan in 1993 in shrimp that had been imported from China. The same virus infection was also detected to have infected white shrimps (P.meguiensis, P.indicus) and Tiger Prawn (P.monodon) in India in 1994. Similar disease infection was reported in Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia and Thailand and several species of Penaeus have been affected, including P.merduiensis, P.chinensis, P.indicus and P.japonicus. It is possible that White Spot Disease ( Systemic Ectodermal and Mesodermal Baculovirus âSEMBVâ ) may be associated with slightly different viruses in different areas. Outbreaks spread rapidly through areas, but there is an association between poor environmental condition and outbreaks of White Spot Disease. The characteristic feature of the infection is White spots or patches under the carapace. This may be associated with a red discoloration and many other non-specific signs of gill health, including damaged appendages and external fouling. Initially, the shrimp are often observed near the surface of the water and they stop feeding recommendations for Yellow head and White Spot Disease. The typical White Spots appear in some, but not all of the shrimp soon after the first signs of gill health and up to 100% mortalities can occur in less than 7 day. The problem has occurred in post in some cases, it may be difficult to evaluate information on the action of product. Such information is often supplied in scientific terms and may even be intentionally misleading. Companies selling products for use in shrimp pond should be able to demonstrate that the product has a reasonable chance of improving production. Even with very effective products there will be no guarantee, since there are no products which can compensate for poor management. Information on the possible improved production should be based on a large number of farms, if it is not, then the company cannot be sure that the product will have any effect. Farmers should also be wary of misleading information. INTRODUCTION 1. Mode of Infection This is water-borne disease spread by host found in the water or ponds, such as zoothamnium, crabs and fish. Birds can also be carrier through its faces. 2. Early Signs of Infection â Shrimps appear weak and not active. â The shrimps will appear on the water surface, swimming and gathering around the pond, which makes it easy to collect or be attacked by predators. â Lost of appetite. 3. Clinical Symptoms â It color turns pale or reddish. â Appearance of white spots of 0.5mm-0.2mm diameter, especially at the inner surface of the shell on its head (carapace) and at the tail. Finally, white spots will cover the whole body. â Death will occur when white spots infect the whole body. â Death will occur when white spots infect the whole body. i. 2-3 days as in the young shrimp/juveniles. ii. 3-10 days for adult shrimps. â Serious infection will cause the stomach to shrink and damage to the gills. TREATMENT So far there is no effective treatment for the disease. CONTROL OF THE DISEASE Infected Shrimps and Their Disposal Farmers are required to follow the advice by relevant officers from the department of Agriculture with regards to the movement and disposal of the infected shrimps. The infected shrimps should never be thrown back into open waters. INFECTED POND â Farmers should carry out total cleaning up according the following procedures. â No water must be discharged from infected pond into the open waters. â Apply chlorine (Calcium hypo chlorite with 60% active ingredient) at the rate of 3000 kg/hectare and leave for at least 72 hours before the ponds are dried. â Dry up ponds and leave them exposed to the sunlight for two weeks until the bottom of the pond is dried up. The dried sediments are then collected and suitably disposed off. â Farmers are advised to stop production (break cycle) for at least one season if their ponds are infected by the disease to avoid - See more at: How to prevent your shrimps from white spot disease ? | Shrimp Care Aquaculture Products Supplier And Distributors In Malaysia
The problem of white spot disease in gujarat is an isolated phenomenon and has probably involved certain areas only; so the news is not available anywhere. Such sporadic incidents due to poorly maintained ponds by farmers is possible, and if contained early, can prevent further spread.
Fish feed prices on rise. We need to control our emotions and ride the beautiful story of Avanti as opp size is huge for Indian companies and business model is very scalable, ethical promoters with superb execution track record, ROCE expected to remain high, risks factor very controllable due to huge coastal length line of India, excellent weathers , low labour costs, capex done n more capex being planned and huge opp size for world moving towards healthy non veg food like Shrimps.
Vivek
Agree with you - only at this price all the risks are priced in - one has to remember that this business carries non linear and tail ended risks - like insurance companies. One disease outbreak will wipe out 2-3 years.
Also, this is a function of how competitive they can be in the global market place - if because of tax exemption or something else, another country can make fish feed at 5 % lower cost, there will be a significant shift in demand.
Also, one must remember that increasing fish feed and eventually increasing prawn prices will result in substitutes - no one is going to eat only prawns for dinner if they cost Rs. 500 a plate when you can get other fishes at say Rs. 300 a plate.
Nothing to worry, just need to watch given that the risk reward ratio at these levels is not great. For early birds which bagged this worm, it’s been a satisfying meal so far !
Latest piece of development related to shrimp farming.
Silver Bullet has developed an water treatment technology that can control the bacteria which causes EMS disease. This will minimize the risks that are prevalent in shrimp farming.
Hi Vivek
Any idea why this one is sinking like a stone?No major announcement from the company except some insignificant stake sale by promoter. Also, as far as I can see, barring some incidents of white spot disease in Gujarat, there is no national or international news about shrimp or shrimp feed that would justify this sell off.
Heard that shrimp prices have softened .
But that makes RM cheaper for processing cos like AFL.
However 80% of AFL business is from feed which anyway is working at full capacity,remains unimpacted and the prices there were not increased much also.
No news of any disease or any other perturbing news.
opportunity size remains huge for indian farmers even if prices soften a bit.
Seems IMHO a story of weak hands getting out.
Thanks Vivek for the quick reply. I have similar thoughts. But, in a bull market, this is one of the very few stocks that has seen a steep correction from a top of Rs.2,120 to a bottom of Rs.1,402 today. Was wondering if I was missing something.
The only thing that I can say is in case of small cap companies the volatility in the stock prices will remain…The fundamentals have not changed and if anything it is providing a great opportunity to enter/accumulate at CMP.
1)Avanti plant is operating at full capacity .
2)FY 15 will be great. Q3 & Q4 results will be good.
3)Shrimp Prices have come down due to resistance to US consumers for extreme price rise.
4)They will start rising once the balance between price n consumption is reached.
5)No advent of EMS or any serious disease so far in India
6)Farmers making handsome profit even at current prices
7)Avanti feed brand like Mannamei standout for quality in the market,enjoy negative working capital,have good distribution reach ,hence phenomenal ROCE of 55%
8)On verge of displacing CP as no 1 Indias no 1 aqua feed co
9)AFL is one of the most honest,ethical,minority share holder friendly group in India.rare to find such group.
Opp size remains large.lets ignore these short term fluctuations and buy on dips.
Delivery volumes were high today on both NSE/BSE. Intelligent investors consistently buying into this high quality co and weak hands moving out
Not much to worry .Stay invested.
Discl- Invested in the co since last 1 year.
Thanks Vivek for summery. Avanti deserves serious
Shall we not celebrate “Ghar Vapasi” (back to Valuepickr) after facing market’s south journey in December.
Valuepickr’s senior members and regular members went little bit away from blog during last bull. There were lots of repeated posts by new born members. Moderation is required to improve quality.
Cheers
Kunal
I concur with the views presented here.Lets not forget that 2120 was hit for a short period of time,the comparable is 2010-2025.So,we are down about 30% from there.
Almost every stock got sold into,doesn’t matter what business it was in.Today was an extraordinarily bad day…10 Declining vs. 1 Advancing stock! The fall has come on trim volumes,except yesterday.I don’t think we should get scared even if some big investor sells.Who knows what he/she is thinking? As long as valuations are reasonable & there is visibility on growth,we should be fine.Also,there is little ownership on the Insttl. side.So,I stay bullish. “This too shall pass”
Disc.: Invested…views maybe biased.
Has anyone looked at waterbase ? Its a similar company (I think). Should benefit from a similar industry shift right ?
Has anyone looked at waterbase ? Its a similar company (I think). Should benefit from a similar industry shift right ?
What is the current capacity and what would be the capacity in 2016, 2017 ?
Congrats to M/s Avanti Feeds Group, the 10th Indian shrimp company to attain three-star BAP status: http://ow.ly/HQKui
Management indicated in Aug AGM that
The share has tanked by 11% today morning. Board meeting to review the quarterly result of Dec14 qtr is to be held tomorrow. Does anyone know the driver behind todays fall in price?
Discl: Invested
Revenues: 385cr. vs 278.6cr.
PAT: 34.5cr. vs. 22.44cr.
9 month EPS: 103.8 vs. 60.8,
Export revenues are down,domestic biz continues to shine.I am satisfied,don’t know how the markets will react…but,should see a positive reaction.Balance sheet continues to strengthen.
Disc.: Invested.
