December Sales Fig. out:
| Particulars | 2012 -13 | 2011 - 12 | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales for Dec | 2844 | 2360 | 20.51% |
| Total Sales from Apr. to Dec | 23592 | 19543 | 20.72% |
Hi,
At Rs 180 isnât ATUL is trading at forward P/E of >10? Just feeling a bit jittery 
Cheers
Vinod
We expect to do better in the second half: Vijay Kedia
http://newindianexpress.com/business/ceo_talk/article1373837.ece
Cheers
Vinod
Just as you were filling a âbitâ jittery, its time to be even more jittery, stock is up 10% to 192 now 
Feeling odd here. When a seemingly genuine ceo telling that they planning to increase their sell by 3.3 fold in 3 year, the stock is bound to rise 10%. If someone has a long term horizon (say 3 yr), one should accumulate this one even at CMP.
If ceo is off the mark by 25% and they could achieve only 7.5B sell in 2016. the stock should increase by 2.5 times assuming pe of atul auto remains the same. This is without considering the fact that similar stocks (like Mayur, Ajanta) have undergone pe expansion, institutional buying once they reach a particular MCap, which Atul auto is slowly reaching.
Hitesh bhai/Seniors,
Can you please let me know if I am wrong here.
Complete exit done. Forward PE of 13 looks too much for me.
There must be some active buying interest from some quarters, some newsâŚ
Cheers
Vinod
Dear Valuepick guys,
Atul Auto closed @ 205, what a fantastic move !
Atul auto is a gem to hold for next 3+ yearsâŚ
regards,
Shanid V H
subash,
CEOs will always be bullish on the prospects of their companies. But at the end of the day the company remains a cylical and there are a lot of things that could go wrong. At cmp I think a lot of good news are captured in the stock.
I feel same about a lot of stocks where fy 14 earnings are being discounted when we are midway in fy 13. I guess it is definitely a time to be careful of chasing momentum in the hope of making a quick buck.
I second Hiteshâs views. When everybody is bullish, it is time to be careful Cautiousness is the need of the hour.
With Forward PE at 13 I am not going to put in fresh money into the stock.But neither am i exiting as the prospect of the long term still holds good.unless that changes i believe we should hang on.We might get better entry point in future for fresh cash to be deployed here
I have also been quite thinking about what to do on Atul Auto cause yes, if one looks over short to medium term, the co is trading at about 11-12 times FY13E earnings. However, while looking at the quality of earnings, they are pretty good and one wonât come across such cos frequently, where - the co is debt free, having almost negative working capital, doing cash flows of more than profits, growing at decent rates and sharing the earnings by way of dividend. And if they are able to maintain even 20% growth rates for next 2-3 yrs, stock can still do well.
I agree with Hitesh bhai, that there has already been a lot of action in the mid/small cap space and one should be careful and try to raise some cash/move to defensive undervalued ideas.
Invite more discussion on Atul Auto.
Regards,
Ayush
Disc: Still holding majority of the qty. Did profit booking on the qty bought few months back after seeing good growth in nos.
I hold quite a bit of Atul,Definitelywould be interested in understanding the sell site of stuff,
Ayush
i could understand the reasons for selling Technofab,
but could you help out on the reasons for selling Ashiana hsg
i think this company has a long way to go:-
1). manages to grow even during slowdown.
2). oil price decontrol will favor this company.
3). I think fy 13 EPS will be more than 25. H1 EPS is 9+ and H2 is expected to be better than H1 since Q3 has shown 20% growth over fy12 Q3. i think it is quoting at 8 forward fy13 EPS.
I think it has a lot of value left. some correction after a big jump is expected.
disclosure.I am invssted here
Small update from streets. Iâve started spotting a few Atul passenger autos in Konkan (Bbay-Goa) highway route for the first time Dec-end.
Though PE-wise valuations are starting to catch up but I think as Ayush pointed out the quality of earnings being very high, there is a very good chance that intrinsic value will keep going up. This being a Diwali quarter, Iâm positive.
Ofcourse, my views are biased as itâs one of my top core bets.
Rehan
How does oil price deregulaion favor it? Most of its vehicles run on diesel, which will become expensive with deregulation. It does not have a good produt in cng/lpg. It is still working on petrol vairant.
Raskhem
As per interview with the mgt , ALL provides better mileage compared to its competitor. So if diesel price rises, this should sell more than competitors. Running cost is a major concern for the buyers who are very sensitive.
Yes if the gap between petrol and diesel prices narrow down significantly,then ALL will lose.
@hardtotarget: Sold Ashiana as my exposure was small and stock had a very sharp run-up. I really like this co but looking at weak nos due to accounting change, Iâm hoping for better prices to re-enter.
@rehan: It would be fantastic if they do deliver EPS of 25+ for FY13. But I would like to assign a very low probability to it. I think doing an EPS of over 20 would be tough.
Also, looking at the way everyone is bullish here, I would like to highlight negatives too:
1). The proposed LCV project - As of now it doesnât seems to be happening, but if done, it may be a negative
2). The 3 wheeler market size is not growing very fast and hence it wouldnât be easy for the co to maintain high growth rates for long.
3). Being a small cap co, several things can go wrong all of sudden.
So please remain balanced and take a call accordingly.
Regards,
Ayush
1 Like
| Col 1 | Col 2 | Col 3 | Col 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Particulars | 2012-13 | 2011-12 | Growth Rate |
| Sales January | 2808 | 2371 | 18.43% |
| April to January | 26400 | 21914 | 20.47 |
Q3/Fy-13 Results outâŚ
Total Income up 30% to 103.55 Cr from 82.91 Cr.
EBIDTA up 80.3% to 12.35 Cr from 7.07 Cr.
Profit before exceptionals almost doubled to 11.88 Cr from 6 Cr.
Net Profit up 168% to 8.28 Cr from 3.09 Cr.
EBIDTA margin is 11.9% v/s 11% (SQ-12) and 8.6% (DQ-11)
NET Profit margin is 8% v/s 7.2% (SQ-12) and 4% (DQ-11)
Total Raw material costs as a %ge to Income is 77.6% v/s 78.1% (SQ-12) and 80.1% (DQ-11)
Employee costs to Income is 5.3% v/s 6% (SQ-12) and 5.4% (DQ-11)
Other expenses to Income is 5.2% v/s 4.9% (SQ-12) and 6% (DQ-11)
Tax Rate 30.8% v/s 27.7% (SQ-12) and 37.3% (DQ-11)
Fall in material costs and steep fall in other expenses helped EBIDTA.
Lower rise in depreciation, Increase in other income, and lower financial costs as well as
Exceptional loss of 13 lacs last year quarter v/s no exceptionals this quarter helped Net profits
9M/Fy-13 v/s 9M/Fy-12:
Total Income up 23.5% to 266.77 Cr from 215.93 Cr (Fy/11-12: 298.8 Cr)
EBIDTA up 39.5% to 28.57 Cr from 20.48 Cr (Fy/11-12: 27.5 Cr)
Net Profit up 60.6% to 18.36 Cr from 11.43 Cr (Fy/11-12: 15.59 Cr)
Realization up 2% at Rs. 112347 v/s Rs.110341
Reported 9-month EPS 16.73 v/s 10.98 (Fy/11-12: 16.51)
At 02 pm on 04/02/2013, stock on BSE trading at Rs. 214/- Up 3.5%
Realization for Q3fy13 is Rs. 112624/-
And a small correctionâŚ
Exceptional item loss in Q3fy12 was 1.07 Cr and not 13 lacs as mentioned.