ValuePickr Forum

Alphageo - Creating Seismic Waves

It is really sad whatever is happening to this company. It was on my radar sometime back for its return ratios and future potential. It is really shocking that they had so high ratios despite alleged siphoning of funds. It is a lesson for other promoters who indulge in these activities and also for investors who have no means to verify true character of promoters beyond annual reports/AGM and screener numbers.

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I appreciate your honesty. Nobody would know, I have a subscription from one of the most prestigious advisory, which also works as an NGO on financial literacy, also known to unearth scams.
They also had this Stock suggestion.
I can only say bad luck to you and really appreciate you run a concentrated portfolio.
Don’t give up on that, you just need one good winner.
Cheers!!!

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This advisory had also recommended krbl. These goes to show how important diversification and management integrity are in creating a portfolio of stocks.

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Take this learning and move on, mate. I know it’s difficult to bear pain and cut your loss, but it is crucial for becoming a better investor.

Be wary while investing in such bull market ‘bubblies’ with one time order book. I was lucky to realize this and made a timely exit. While looking at rear view mirror is important, but even more important is to look forward.

i have a straightforward back of the hand rule when i invest - base case earnings…if there is even slightest of chances that the base case earnings cannot be maintained in future, do not invest! Key learning for me with order book based companies (more specifically government orders).

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I have 4% allocation. I had also allocated based on the same advisory that you are talking. Money down the drain. Even i had done analysis. the company looked good. I have lost 72% loss.
This market has been teaching me very costly hard lessons this year. But its better not to invest in such a company with such a management.

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Most of the retail investors bought @ above 800/-. Its downward journey started since October 2018 when it fell below 500 then never recovered. First I though it is going down due to pledging of shares by the promoters and recovery is possible once shares are unpledge. As small/mid caps are making new lows daily it looks difficult for Alphageo to recover when it is almost 70% down. Concept of long term holding is not working these days.

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“Many shall be restored that now are fallen,
And many shall fall that now are in honor”
These are the staring statement that I come across when start reading security analysis . To add to above in process of these one should perfect the Art of doing Nothing. strong text
Tips always flips , anchoring to price and investment based on price movement is not a good practice.Reaptedly Senior VP ask to find out the interinsic value of a business. And then apply Margin for unknown events and error in making ones interinsic value . There is no perfect formula but one should , in order to have long term invester , should have sound investment philosophy and knows one self first before investing? It is easy to preach than to practice .With the Sound processes and practices of using checklists often take care the most of the mistakes which is common in nature .i do have burn my fingers in some other stocks . You need to answer following questions before exiting any down stock
1 Do you need this money over next 5 years ?
2 Do the company’s product or services will remained in existence for next 3-4 years ?
3 Does the company has same conditions in past ? How does it survive ? .

I do have used to jump in to conclusions very soon and made mistake made not to check the background of Promotors results i book LOSes

I am invested in a company that operates in niche field it is 30 down I buy more it goes 30 more down I bought more it goes further 20 % I bought more . But still sitting at loss … But my point is if you CONVECTION in place than it is worth adding more but if your original thesis is full of follies than better not to average down .IT better to exit .

The thing is we forget our process when Bill takes the charge and we sharp our horns once bear takes charge . My humble opinion is take time and write down the SWOT of your Stock . One thing is Sure Market Knows more than one individual.

Disc : Not invested this is not any recommendation to buy sell or hold . I am not SEBI approved analyst

Booked the loss…all business related thesis intact…when i bought it…but this corporate governance…not digestible…I can not stay with this guy…

Disclosure: no sell/ buy recommendation…I am.not sebi approved analyst…my views may be biased…

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Could you Please hare out the name of the advisory …

I do own stocks in my portfolio which have gone down 30-50%, but i havent sold them. The business is good and I am adding more.
I have sold this stock not because it fell down more than 50%, but because of the connection to the VVIP chopper scam. I would not like to be associated to such a management, hence I sold it. It does not matter to me , if business is good or not. The management is not clean.

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Security Code : 526397 Company : ALPHAGEO

Clarification sought from Alphageo (India) Ltd



Exchange Disseminated Time 05/08/2019 20:00:19
The Exchange has sought clarification from Alphageo (India) Ltd on August 5, 2019 with reference to significant movement in price, in order to ensure that investors have latest relevant information about the company and to inform the market so that the interest of the investors is safeguarded.

The reply is awaited

Disclaimer

Source: bse

Disclaimer: I have no idea about alphageo, but I see attraction to such companies as fatal attractions.

Reason:
One could conjure rosy picture about big order for a local major in seismic oil exploration services provider. However, there are several multi-national companies in this area, and why would alphageo services be superior to them to ensure order booking?

I am just taking random pot shot at this (because the same kind of local India company Tejas Networks - dented me :slight_smile: )

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Its all about the time horizon. Stock returns are lumpy by nature. The best buys are when the market is down.

Alphageo is down because of the nature of the business. One big contract and it will rebound with gains within 10 days. Nobody can predict when that contract will awarded. Its execution skill is its moat.

I am invested and not selling.

Alphageo is again in lower circuits since 3 days. Is this related to IT raids or some other reason?

Two orders from ONGC received worth 112 Crores. Link to the announcement.

Order size is almost equal to market cap of the company.

The company is highly cyclical, and earnings are bound to be lumpy. Recently the company has moved into seismic services for other mineral exploration also. They also got a small order. One can invest here only with a very high risk appetite.
[Disclosure- Invested]

A company with the worst investor relations.

When I queried about their order book few years back, they first told me that the CFO is busy. When I didn’t buy this alibi, they finally verbally told me that it was my decision to buy the shares, and that the company isn’t able to answer any questions beyond what is published in the numbers.

Next minute I exited the stock.

Investors beware

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