Ajanta Pharma is included in the model portfolio of Forbes and Sanjoy Bhattacharyya.
Q4FY13 for Ajanta had a one time hit due to retrospective tax claims.
Factoring in the current growth momentum, company should end FY14 with around ~210 Cr profits and ~60 Rs EPS.
Factoring in a moderate 20-25% growth on the higher base, with increased tail winds from rupee depreciation and increasing export percentage, Ajanta should do ~75 Rs EPS for FY15, which would provide a 60% odd upside in the next 12-15 months even from current price.
Thanks Rudra.
Are these projections for standalone or consolidated financials?
Also look at the Q3FY14 presentation of the company…which gives a lot of insight on the stregth of the business model (available on researchbytes.com)
Ayush
Thanks Ayush for the heads up on the document. The presentation is very forward looking.
At 9M EPS of Rs 43 and 14 for 4Q FY14 (assuming an average; 43/3), total EPS for FY13 comes to 57. The business seems to be fairly valued, IMO, at CMP with P/E of around 16. With a 40+ kind of ROCE, P/E of 16 seems good.
Bought today too at Rs 900. Intraday low was RS 776! Good for investors to add at a lower level with this kind of volatility.
There is a seasonality in the results. Generally, 4th Q is the best. Third quarter EPS was 17+, so last Q one should be close to 20. That would give us 63 Rs as the EPS for the current year. IndiaNivesh has given the most bullish projection, which is at 68 Rs for the year. Even if we take 63 as the EPS, stock is trading at less than 15 times a quarter forward. Looks cheap to me.
As per the PPT, they are going to start the production at the new plant from Q1 2015. That should improve the result in the next year.
Disc. - Invested. View most likely biased.
I am out of town and unable to access these documents. Can someone please email these two(oct13 and jan14) documents time at gupta.hemant@gmail.com.
Hemant,
It was after a long time we say your post.
Where have you gone? Everything okay?
Please post more often.
Dear fellow boarders,
Does the Stock still looks attractive at present levels?
I have missed the rally. 
will the coming LS polls have any major impact on the stock ?
Not sure about LS but last year in the march quarter the tax rate was around 50% and dollar was at 54 so there will be uptick in the margins for this quarter. Also, if sales increase by around 30% we will get eps for march quarter of around 17-22. So looking at 1 year ahead it can give returns of more than 24%. Also dahej facility will begin production in Q1fy15.
Disclosure: Invested so opinion can be biased please do your own due dilligence
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Hi Arpit,
Personally I feel one can buy at these levels too. I bought it recently at 985 levels.
The analysis and projections above and some reading helped me arrive at this decision. Hitesh has also given projectionsas below (with a disclaimer that “these are mere projections and need to be taken with a pinch of salt :-).”:
projections would be eps for ajanta
ajanta fy 14 …70… fy 15 85-90
But again please do your own DD 
Ajanta Pharma is probably the only quality company which hasnt participated at all in last 2 month market rally. With great growth shown continuosly over many years, and triggers ahead ( capacity expansion), theexpected PE of about 15 for 2014Eis very low. My guess is it will see huge buying once the buying resumes in pharma stocks and closer to April end near the results.
Disclosure: Investedfor many years. Recently increased stake.
Dahej SEZ commercialises next month and possibly Savli facility will commercialise in Q4FY15, so post normalisation, can one expect 1000 cr additional sales ?
My sense is that although sales will increase, but not by disproportionate quantum as management had indicated the major aim for expansion was to reduce outsourcing. Increased in-house sales would compensate reduced outsourcing and improve quality control and standards. So impact on overall sales may not be as big as imagined.Retaining current outsourcing and increased in-house sales would be ideal from an investor perspective.
But, the most critical question is: Would management focus on increased in-house sales in future affect overall nature of business and reduce asset turnover for coming years. Could there be significant reduction in ROE as margins are already at elevated levels and are unlikely to compensate for reduced asset turnover, if that happens?
View Invited
Disc: Invested
Market knows that 9M EPS is 43 and even a conservative FY14 EPS of 57 tells that this stock is trading around 17 PE. Is it undervalued or the market knows something that I don’t know? A Pharma stock trading around 14 PE (estimated) whereas Nifty PE is around 19! Am I missing something?
Indianivesh has revised the target to 1216 and the quarterly EPS estimate to 18 in the recent report . I think the stock has been consolidating for the last 6 months and this quarter results can act as trigger for the next upmove. The stock looks really interesting with FY15 EPS in mind. Sustainability of such margins looks difficult to me.
Hi Fellow Boarders,
Ajanta has been a very good wealth creator for all the VP followers. Having missed the bus completely and looking at the current valuations and its consistency in delivering market beating results, I am contemplating loading up this counter at cmp.
Have some queries and would be glad if someone who is following this one can answer.
Believe Ajanta has no USFDA approved plants ? Why are they not taking the US market ( most profitable and huge moat ) seriously ?
Believe they have started focusing on US foray in late 2013 only. If so what sort of plans does the management have on this front.
Also looking at the Managements track record can we assume that the company would be able to churn out very good numbers once they focusing on the US market.
Results on 5th May.
http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=336edc9d-8ec9-45c2-9e97-8f705c9d5828
Hi Sandeep, strongly recommend that you read the Management Q&A religiously - 2 of them.
Also read the latest investor presentation - 22 ANDAs files, 2 approved, 1 launched. Expected market size of ANDAs filed post generic comes to 19800 Cr. They do have USFDA approved facility.
Ajanta does look good, trading at below 12 times FY15 EPS. The run-up in the last 3 years seem to be putting off investors
Results on Monday. Standalone projections-
| Mar-14 | Dec-14 | Mar-13 | Dec-12 | Growth | ||
| Optimistic | Pessimistic | Dec to Mar Growth | ||||
| 12% Sales Growth, 33% EBITDA | 5% Sales Growth, 30% EBITDA | |||||
| Sales | 336.95 | 315.89 | 300.85 | 249.44 | 229.34 | 8.8% |
| EBITDA % | 33.0% | 30.0% | 32.3% | 27.4% | 26.1% | |
| EBITDA | 111.19 | 94.77 | 97.22 | 68.43 | 59.84 | 14.4% |
| Net Profit / EBITDA | 65.0% | 65.0% | 64.2% | 39.6% | 54.4% | |
| Net Profit | 72.28 | 61.60 | 62.42 | 27.09 | 32.57 | |
| EPS | 20.45 | 17.43 | 17.66 | 7.66 | 9.21 | |
There could be minor losses in currency forwards. Fianlly, it should close FY14 with EPS of 60-63 & another for 3-5 subsidaries. In any case at 15 trailing PE, which seems greatvalue especially when rest of the market has rallied heavily.
Discl: Invested