Nice summary thread on this business.
Posting India’s quarterly LPG import numbers from now on, instead of monthly. The idea is to look at the broader trend and match the narrative of increasing LPG imports with the actual numbers.
| Apr-Jun '22 (MT) | Apr-Jun '21 (MT) | YOY change |
|---|---|---|
| 4246 | 3495 | 21.4% |
The source of the 2022 data is here and the historical data is here
The above numbers are not exactly comparable as Apr-Jun 2021 was the peak of Covid 2nd wave in India and the growth numbers may look inflated. However, even if we look at 2019 or 2020 numbers, there has been a growth in LPG imports. The “Apr - Jun '19” imports were 3258 MT and the “Apr - Jun '20” imports were 4063 MT.
India’s quarterly LPG import numbers for Q2 below:
| July - Sep '22 (MT) | July - Sep '21 (MT) | YOY change | Apr - Jun '22 (MT) | QoQ change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4463 | 4687 | -4.7% | 4246 | 5.1% |
So, a 4.7% drop on a YoY basis but 5.1 % increase QoQ.
In Q1, FY23, Aegis did 637 MT of gas volumes (slide 5 of investor presentation). With India’s total import volumes at 4246 MT in Q1, that implies 15% market share.
Aegis has been hovering around the 15% market share for a while now. It will be interesting to see how that number moves with VLGC compliant jettys coming in at Pipavav and Kandla terminals getting operational.
There are two threads on Aegis, realised it today. Not sure, but will add updates on this thread. Some immediate term good news is that Aegis might get boost in gas distribution volumes due to probable pice differential increase between LPG and Natural gas.
Two news - Govt cuts agri cess (15%) on LPG and Gujarat Gas hikes natural gas rates by ~6%. this might benefit Aegis gas distribution volumes.