This was an year old article and it was shared then.
It was posted in this thread: Yes bank
This was an year old article and it was shared then.
It was posted in this thread: Yes bank
When it comes to a bank the first thing is to protect its capital, which is being questioned by RBI in NPA divergences.There are better opportunities available why to take risk if stock price has fallen too much unless you are a trader.
Per screener ROE of YES BANK is
17.67 compared to HDFC BANK 17.87.
Disclosure: held for short period before rbi divergence analysys last year. I will not be buying in near future.
Please confirm if the below interpretation of your investment rationale is correct -
“Yes Bank was a one man show & hence it got into all sorts of wrong things & hence I did not invest. Now if this one man goes away, all problems will be solved & I will invest”
How easy it was for you to assume that Yes Bank played the right tricks to fool RBI, institutional investors, SEBI & auditors all the while? Also how strong is your gut feeling that removal of the one man will solve all the problems?
Could you also enlighten on your source of information that Yes Bank has been a one man show. It will help gullibe investors to be more informed.
What if it should have shown much lower profits than it is showing now? A down to earth professional banker Ramesh Sobti has made more money for investors than promoter run YB. You could go through old articles (2005-2010) in which he had shown deep desire to create an earning machine bigger than HDFC with better consistency. After a decade one needs to ask this question … has he created an organisation to achieve the same? a clear no. Banking is not just about numbers and branches. It is a trust and reputation biz too and he has failed miserably on these. One can roll up the thread and my view on the stock has not changed since 2015. Sorry too much of crowding here… this is my last on this thread. Will revisit it in 2019 and 2020 if it remains an independent bank. Good luck to everyone!
What’s so wrong with having one person in charge of all decisions supported by an able executive team? Why do we look for promoter’s skin in the game then?
And why is it being said now repeatedly that RK was the one who brought Yes Bank to this stage and that there was a premium attached to the bank because of RK if he’s the problem?
A whiff of problems and suddenly a man who has built the bank from scratch is a culprit in everyone’s opinion!?
On concalls, it’s Mr Rajat, Mr. Raj and Mr. Pralay etc who answer questions and convey mgmt thinking. Doesn’t look like they’re puppets doing RK’s bidding.
PSBs had a lot of decentralised decision making where a junior level branch officer at PNB could renew LCs worth thousands of crores and look what ultimately happened?
Don’t get me wrong: I think RK should make way for new leadership and give them independent hand to clean up the books but I don’t think he’s completely dissociating from the bank as he has already clarified in his tweets!
Most of boarders here are investors - problem of recent fall laying in margin calls - it’s typical Indian traders - they can trade in futures just with one lot of margin money with cash settlement - let’s dust settle down and see the price moment - is the bank stay live in next 5 years ? Does RBI allow to bankrupt YES ? We can sensibilly estimate nex 5 years BV and discount to present value makes value buy or not ? If everything is perfect , we can not buy in reasonable valutions as most of pvt indian banks are most priciest banks in world If indian GDP growing 8% require minimum 12% of growth if banks in worst case …
Dis - invested around 210 levels and waiting to invest more
“Also, Yes Bank’s management dilemma can be taken as learning lessons for other banks to how strict RBI is when it comes to misconduct in financial books especially in case of gross NPA. Few lenders like Bank of India, SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank are among few to report divergence in their NPA.”
Extract from the below article
Report of HDFC bank showing divergence in NPA
HDFC is considered the leader of the pack. These kind of divergences have come several times in the past in reputed banks. So such a fall is not warranted for divergences atleast.
The other issue is RK exit. People in banking space if could throw some light as to the concentration of superior performance of Yes Bank is attributable only to RK due to his rapo built in the industry over the years or is the market creating panic out of nothing.
My opinion is that the stock is falling on the concern of divergence. If the issue was big enough for RBI to remove RK, there is clearly something going on. You can’t lend to everyone on the street and then claim 1% NPAs. I feel we’ll see the real pain when the new management comes in and starts the clean up. There is no smoke without fire.
Disclosure: Bought a very small amount at 190, no position before that. Was tracking the stock but didn’t buy because of NPA divergence concerns. I find comfort in valuations, although I am skeptical.
My 2 cents, If history have taught us anything, it is extreme fear & greed, I still remember Sikka’s episode and how INFY went down. Though here its a cocktail of divergence, RBI mandated MD’s exit, CARE’s reaction god knows what else, What I know that the amount of divergence is negligible, I have a reputed auditor here, rating agencies always come last to change ratings, Yes bank have gone through the same fate during CY2013 and historically (form 2013) in this PB band, 1Year expected forward return is minimum more than 100%.
|PB Band||Mean Returns||StDev||Max Returns||Min Returns|
Although past performance is not a future indicator, but am putting my neck on the line for Yes
My personal experience during my IB days tells me their due diligence for SME clients is awesome (some of the current Equity analyst dont even bother to talk to Distributors before writing a report, but thet do that)
Disc: Invested, looking to add more on dips (unless I find the bank is outright fraud).
Then question is what did yb gain by ‘lending to everyone on the street’ as you put it. It has been reporting similar PATs to kotab n indusind (private banks who have similar deposits and casa base).
Thanks for sending across a mail to personal mail id as well.
Am not a big investor. Nibbling here and there. Have seen that behavioural influences cloud my buying/selling decisions often. Your call of exiting in Jan was great!. My brother and me kept talking about the trust factor of the numbers of Yes Bank for a long time. Yet, when it neared Rs 400 recently, didn’t even offload small portion😁
Since the % of Yes Bank is about 1.2% of my holding, will sit tight hoping to ride out the storm. Wondering whether to add a few in this mayhem…
This is the crux which I think most of us are missing & @Yogesh_s has aptly put it.
The price action has made us think of ourselves as dimwits as stockholders but as Bezos says Stock is not the Company and neither the Company is the Stock.
If we digress for a moment and look at the liability side of YBL. I think the bank led by Rana has done a stupendous job & no one can take that from them.
@sumi00 you have maintained your personal stance that the promoters or the management is not as you would like and that you have exited after making your 7 bagger long ago. Wanted to understand why would you buy once the management is changed. What do you see which makes you optimistic about the business opportunities? What is good in the bank as per you? And why did you enter pre 2009, what factors impressed you in the bank that led to your first ever 7x? Thanks.
Latest tweet by Basant M on yes bank …
I could not make out much from the images that’s uploaded by him so posting here if some one can take a look and suggest
The nation wants to know. Who shorted #YesBank before the news ? #TheThoughtfulInvestor
Then question is what did yb gain by ‘lending to everyone on the street’ as you put it
Loan book growth.
It has been reporting similar PATs to kotab n indusind
In my opinion PAT in banking stocks does not mean a lot.
A large number of people have invested in yes bank and some of us have opinions about its management but just wondering how many of us actually have bank accounts at yes bank… I work in jaypee Hospital and have my salary account with yes bank for last 3 years, so wanted to share my experience with them.All doctors at Jaypee Hospital have there salary accounts with Jaypee Hospital (Salaries ranging from 15 lakh pm to 1 lakh pm). Previously I used to have my salary accounts with SBI, IDBI, HDFC banks. The reason I am stressing about salary accounts is because most banks put a lot of effort to give good services to salary account holders as its a recurring source of income to them.
The biggest red flag as far as I am concerned is there corporate exposure, yes bank has has been growing thanks to there corporate exposure, but the same exposure can also lead to higher NPA in future. As a matter of fact their biggest exposure is to Jaypee infratech and Jaypee associates and sitting at Jaypee Hospital we keep on hearing that yes bank have converted there huge loan to Jaypee group into some sort of share holding. Not sure if it’s just a rumor or truth.
I can’t change my salary account bank thanks to there tie up with Jaypee group but atleast I can choose not to be an investor with them.
My experience at the branch has exactly been the opposite, even during the demonetisation days. They are the best bank to deal with for me. Courteous staff, personalised service, everything gets done quickly. Could be because it’s a small branch. My experience has been at a branch in Goa.
‘A large number of people have invested in yes bank and some of us have opinions about its management but just wondering how many of us actually have bank accounts at yes bank’ since people here want liquidity to buy shares, many of us here would have bank accounts with yb, 6%on savings…my experience with yb has been the opposite, With YB experience being best among all banks, better than kotak, icici etc.
Agree. Yes bank has best customer service.
I had my salary account with them for almost 10 years.prior to that ,I had FDRs wit them.i applied for ipo thru manual ASBA in Mumbai while my account was in Delhi.I asked them my cheque book at different branch and lastly I asked them my account closure letter 3 days after closing my account.Every thing done efficiently and smoothly
Saw this news now. Is the cleaning up process started? If so, good for the investors.