Source:https://twitter.com/ManishTewari/status/1045110452890537985
Figures are in Millions and not in crores as he says.
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1841 crores of outstanding debt? 10-25 bps of loans it seems but still big money.
1.5 times of BV - 175 is key support level and unless itâs break that level , price stay rangebound till calmness comes into market - Panic selling give good opportunities as long as we have strict discipline of enrty and exit price - " Story of stock likely catch the fancy of crowd " - now story is in rumours and sell side - time Tell us either we right or wrong - Simple India need somebody to fund growth of 8% , either itâs Pvt or public banks - RBI and Govt knows very well that another scam in Pvt completely derail credit growth in India - after all most of participants in market knows problem of yes like divergence and management issues - itâs got elevated now and market and ilfs support the trend - intrestgly no bulk deals in NSE ⌠seems to be few more trading sessions itâs trader paradise âŚ
Disclaimer - long on this stock around 225 levels
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Another troubled company in which YB is the largest lender among PVT sector banks!
Which troubled company you referring to ? Is it part of RADAG ?
ILFS transport which is facing liquidity issues. What is RADAG?
Sorry Reliance ADA group I meant .
Case of governance failure and skeletons to tumble after appointment of new board. Scrip may be taken a fresh look once new board is formed without RK.
I am newbie. So, not sure if my understanding is correct. I think the reason for extension is to clear all the backlogs regarding NPAâs and start afresh with new CEO. I am a customer of Yes Bank and see that there is lot of pressure on managers to have funds by end of month. Service wise its better than HDFC bank. Hope new CEO will tighten few things to make it more competitive. Their credit card approval is fair with thorough checks.
Disc: Invested in the drop and also customer of the bank.
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I consider myself a layman compared to knowledge of people here. IMHO,if one takes 2-3 year view there is less downside risk and great chances of upside. I think they being private bank would be able to resolve their issues with new team and capture the space vacated by PSU banks.
Disc: Invested and planning to add more if price corrects more
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Since many boarders are intimately familiar with Yes Bank, I have a few questions:
- Why is the GNPA and NNPA of Yes Bank so low? Even stalwarts like HDFC Bank has higher NPA?
- There was a mention that Yes Bank does better structuring which allows them to keep NPA in check. Can anybody throw light on what is the structuring they do when they give loans? My sense is that they take security from the promoter including his residential place and so on. But I thought almost all banks do that?
- In one of the analyst calls, management talked about a nuclear option if company doesnât pay. That was the first time I heard that their structuring may be somewhat unique. Not sure if anybody can throw more light on this?
- Their treasury income and profit has consistently gone up in the last decade. This is when we have had volatile interest rate. Do we know how they are able to generate these amazing results?
Disc: Recently took a minuscule positions Yes Bank to study more and decide if I should scale the position.
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Do you feel that stock price will run-up in a very short time and you wonât be able to buy it? My advice would be donât try to average down. No one is in a hurry to buy this stock and neither you should be.
First let the price stabilize. Then it will be followed by a long consolidation (base formation) probably for 2-3 years. Then whenever price starts increasing you can buy in bulk.
Till then you can invest your capital in some other stock for real returns. It will enhance your portfolio returns as well as you will be able to buy a good company at the right time.
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The way yesbank and other financials are behaving past few weeks is eerily reminiscent of what happened circa mid july-august 2013 . The primary factors spooking the markets are somewhat similar to what happened during that period :
- Rapidly depreciating rupee.
- Murmurs surrounding fiscal deficit.
- Strong likelihood of Interest rate hikes by RBI
Hereâs the performance of some of the major financials during that period.
| 15-07-2013 | 28-08-2013 | Fall | Peak | Fall from peak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YESBANK | 500.35 | 225.85 | -55 | 542.75 | -58% |
| BAJFINANCE | 1481.15 | 984.25 | -34 | 1581.15 | -38% |
| DHFL | 159.05 | 115.1 | -28 | 221.05 | -48% |
| GRUH | 234.3 | 199.25 | -15 | 246.9 | -19% |
| HDFC | 848.5 | 652.75 | -23 | 929.5 | -30% |
| HDFCBANK | 695.45 | 561.95 | -19 | 725.15 | -23% |
| ICICIBANK | 1061.05 | 796.35 | -25 | 1231.95 | -35% |
| INDUSINDBK | 506.35 | 344.55 | -32 | 529.35 | -35% |
| SRTRANSFIN | 678.65 | 508.35 | -25 | 835.4 | -39% |
| LICHSGFIN | 237.85 | 162.55 | -32 | 297.25 | -45% |
Ever since 2014 financials have enjoyed a benign and favorable interest rate environment leading to rapid growth .This looks like marketâs way of rapidly repricing the financials for a more challenging interest rate environment. Yes bank for whatever reason (corporate governance,Accounts fudging accusations etc ) has always been the most volatile of all frontline banks during inflection points. its difficult and fool hardy to catch a falling knife and pick a bottom , i would wait for a 15-20% rally from the most recent low before thinking of making a purchase .Buying based on a Fall from Relative valuation multiple just a month or two ago can be hazardous.
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Received a message through whatsapp. If true, looks like some bad time ahead.
Arun Jha has sold 40000 shares on 24.9.18
Ms Madhu Kapur has sold 3.50 lakh shares on 21.9.18
Mags Finvest has sold 5 lakh shares on 21.9.18.
If some investor friends can get some information on bulk deals, will be of good help. Intention is to alert friends of possible problems in the books of the Bank. Not to create any kind of panic.
What I can confirm is one of the PMS scheme has exited fully from Yes Bank during last 10 days.
Wish that my assessment is wrong, but feel everything is not alright with the Bank. Or else the Board would not have asked RBI to consider its request for extension of RK till Sep 19
Disc: Invested, added a small lot on 21.9.18. With the kind of clarification by the Bank to NSE, will wait for some time for a clear picture to emerge
How much is 3.5lac shares out of her total holding
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First of all, not sure if whatsapp messages can be relied on.
EVEN IF IT WERE TRUE, according to the latest shareholding pattern, Madhu Kapur holds 7.62% or 17.53cr shares. Is a sale of 3.5lakh shares material enough?
Similarly, Mags Finvest holds 1.7% or 3.91cr shares.
Not sure who is Arun Jha or the PMS you are talking about.
The bigger question however is, do you want to base your decisions on a whatsapp forward?
Disc: Invested
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It was Birla PMS, am invested in that
Hi Mahesh
I doubt this is the case.
Since 21st when stock started tanking only one insider trade for disposal of shares has happened (rest are either acquire/disposal in same quantities or pledging of shares). Sanjeev Pandey a Senior President at the bank sold 22,500 shares on 21st.
At least this is what is filed as Insider Trades.
I think there is a lot of rumour mongering going on. Lets wait and watch 
Rgds
disc: dont have ybl in my portfolio since jan 18.
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Hi Deepak,
Intention was to alert the investor friends that everything may not be alright with the Bank. Coming days/months would probably bring clarity to the issue.
Few of the investor friendsâ advice is not to bottom fish nowâŚ
Regards