HDFC Prudence Fund has increased its stake from 2.93% to 4.52% by adding 1,37,077 shares in Q1.
OK the results seem dull as management had warned. Topline and bottom line growth < 10%;
is it a buying opportunity then ?
the stock price has not reacted much kind of a status quo though i was looking for a correction due to lack lusture results.
it had collapsed previously last year i think and as is the adage in bull markets
" is it different this time around ? "
would like the bullish boarders to respond i am bearish @ cmp.
Tiller sales were lower q on q which was made up by good growth in sales of low HP tractors. What was the reason why tiller sales fell??? Monsoon delay or some other reason?? If we understand this, we may be able to judge as to whether the company will get back to its normal growth path in the coming quarters…If it does, It probably would make for a decent entry point at CMP
when the earth shakes big trees fall … if you were to read between the lines samir arora and arshiya international the case in point i would not get swayed by prudence also there top up price may be 600 to 700 not the lofty 1500 to 1950 range.
markets don’t like uncertainty IF should not be the reason to pay 1550.
The reason for negligible reaction to what some might call lacklustre results is that management had categorically stated the q1 in all likelihood will remain lacklustre. Hence there was no element of negative surprise.
Markets usuallly react violently to surprises be they positive or negative. (surprise is usually meant to indicate something totally unexpected. e.g Hawkins q1 fy 15 results. )
so should we expect a negative surprise going forward
every thing said and done on the surprise front if you were to buy @ 1550 would you be paying ?
i salute the genius in you identifying so many winners @ early stages.
let’s hear from horse’s mouth … just what the doctor ordered
I would agree with Hitesh bhai.The stock has already corrected from 1900+ levels to 1550,on the back of a ‘sedate’ guidance by the management.Thus,now,the stock should stabilise at worst & start moving up.Being a discounting mechanism,the markets will now start looking at hints about Q2,which in all likelihood,should be stronger than Q1(better rains!)
Attended the Agm , key takeaways
First quarter results were tepid because of :-
2). general elections , this caused some confusion and delays related to government subsidy plus restrictions on cash movements had some impact.
Monsoons have picked up but so far not broadbased in terms of coverage like last year . Some areas have drought and some have floods .sales lost in first quarter may not be recouped as purchases are likely to be deferred till next year / season even if monsoon situation improves substantially.
Last year was exceptional as everything like monsoon ,prompt disbursal of subsidy by states fell in to place at the right time
Company doesn’t expect big growth this year , maybe 10% growth is best case scenario .
Rice transplanter sales have doubled in the last year . These are imported from China and assembled locally by vst . Though transplanters are subsidized now, Company doesn’t expect big growth in this segment as these are difficult sell.Farmers are not keen to invest in it as it’s usage is seasonal -only for period of one or two months in a year during planting season . Usually one guy buys and rents it out to the entire village.
Competition increasing as big players like mahindra, sonalika are also targeting the tractor segment which company operates in.
Company will increase advertising and marketing in next six months with media campaigns to increase visibility of company’s tractors. No details on ad budget etc
Disclosure : mostly exited last month on price run up and monsoon uncertainty. Small tracking position.
Promoters have been buying small quantities in the November/ December.
Any updates on the sales of tractors and tillers in this quarter?
It seems M&M is not expecting tractor sales to pick up before March 2015 (though they operate more in the greater than 20hp category).
Just came across this article - Apparently Mr. Pawan Goenka sees the tractor market in India being saturated in about 8 years…After which only replacement and components demand will be there…This should see growth rates halving from current levels, as per the article…This seems like a huge negative for the entire sector…If this is true then PE’s in this sector could remain subdued or reduce, even if growth rates were to pick up sometime in the near future
72600 Shares were traded at 1392 today.
HDFC mutual fund sold 72494 shares yesterday.
The management has decided to restrict the production to 4 days a week both at Bangalore and Hosur plant.
Historically VST management have always been grounded regarding announcements. They have always forcasted moderate numbers but have performed better than that.
With reducing number of days of production they have made right decision to cut costs and shows sign of efficient management.
For long term viewers story still seems good.
There is an update from VST Tillers that production days back to 6 days at Bangalore and Hosur plant.
The production was ramped down only in December 2014. This seem to be positive sign for the company however, the stock has fallen quite a bit in this week.
Negative for VST Tillers and Tractors.
I am new member to this site and I wanted to share my write up on VST Tillers: https://goo.gl/Yxyrvl
Looking forward to lot of learning and insightful conversations with you.
Having gone through both the John Deere and VST posts, is it feasible to have small-scale combines/harvesters for small farmers in India?
Food for thought: http://opensourceecology.org/wiki/Microtractor
Positive for Swaraj Engines? They are the sole Engine suppliers to M&M Tractor Division!