My presentation was on mental models and repeatable pattern recognition.
The key points were that patterns can take the shape of:
• Same sector (Different geography)
One can see this in these sectors…
– Banks, FMCG, Consumer Brands, Diagnostic industry, Mobile towers, Gaming, Alcohol beverages, Airlines, Cable TV, Digital advertisement, Financial services, Insurance, Commodity Exchange, Rating agencies
• Adaptation Time lag (Adaptation in China/emerging market)
What happens in one country may happened in another country but with a time lag
– Automotive, Mobile, commerce
• Emerging Industry dynamics
One can try and see a pattern emerging and either be careful to sidestep the problem or be alert to grab the opportunity
– Enzymes, Pharma sector, IT sector
The other key idea was that one never knows when and from where the dots connect. It could be from an article from a magazine, a talk given by a investor, a newspaper article, a book one has read years back, a case study in business school…if one keeps an open mind the dots may connect to give an attractive investment opportunity …
The counter point was that things don’t always repeat in the same way because of many variances like local competitive intensity, local regulations, different management teams, consumer behaviour etc. As an example, the airline industry in India is far more price sensitive and all airlines behave like low cost airlines. While in the west, there used to be incumbents that behaved in one way and the low cost airlines behaved in a distinct way. Trying to directly extrapolate the thesis may not work out well…
Education of a fellow investor version1.pdf (381.2 KB)