Vivek Gautam Portfolio

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
101

What a timely clearing of leverage…

Regards,
Raj

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102

We need to conquer our fears.

The battle ground is not in markets.Its in our mind.

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103

The shorter our investment horizon is more we have to worry about market conditions.

Think of 2017/2018/2019 and this crash may appear as short term blip.

Don’t focus on what we don’t have control over i.e. Market.Instead focus on what we have control over ie investing in companies under quality management with good opp size and good earning power.

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104

Thanks for sharing @Vivek_6954.
Wow…that is an inspiring investment journey.Liked your calculative moves and huge transition from being an IPO investor to making concentrated bets with leverage.Active investing is really tough especially if one is doing it as part-time.Very very few like you have succeeded.It is an absolute delight to have people like you here which this forum very a special place for newbies like me.

1.Which made you the maximum money in your journey?

2.How many hours per week you read about stocks?

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105

Hi

Seems i was wrong, HUDCO is indeed hitting the market and that too with a better rating. Here is the link…
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/housing-urban-development-corporation-set-to-hit-the-market-with-rs-1710-crore-tax-free-bonds/articleshow/50646893.cms

Best

106

Thanks.

I was just following my passion which is stocks.

max money was made in stocks in which my bet as big as lot of homework gets automatically done.

There are so many success stories here also thanks to collaborative efforts.

leverage is a double edge sword.Beware specially in bearish times

107

@Vivek_6954,
Sir could you please share books which you read right from beginning of this wonderful journey

108

Few well known books like

  1. Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki

  2. One up on wall street by Peter Lynch

  3. Pat Dorsey books

  4. The thoughtful investor by Basant Maheshwari

I feel implementing what you read is more imp then reading a huge no of books n not doing anything

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109

Anybody thinking of applying in Hudco tax free bonds issue opening on 27 Jan?

How is Hudco qualitatively as orgn n business wise? How is the liquidity in these bonds?

Any other tax free bonds expected in near future?

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110

WOW Vivek…Rich Dad Poor Dad would be my first choice too. It simply changed the way I thought about money and assets and liabilities. A must read for anyone beginning his financial journey. I got so impressed with Robert Kiyosaki, that i read all his books in quick succession. But his first remains his best.

sorry to butt in, but Common stocks uncommon profits would be my 2nd fav. Even above One up on wall street. Phil fisher makes it appear a lot more concrete, as compared to Peter Lynch who comes only second to Warren Buffet in his folksy manner.

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111

Are you adding anything in this downfall Vivek?

112

Did anybody applied in tax free bonds recently? Nhai Hudco have all listed at 1050 vs issuance price of 1000. With revenue secy clarifying recently that in fy 17 tax free status might not be given to these infrastructure related bonds due to objections from banking side n imminent rate cuts these bonds can appreciate more.

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113

I was lucky enough to buy basket of MFIs and related NBFCs which are giving very good return like Satin,Manappuram and recent listings in the sector.The reasons have been discussed threadbare in other threads on VP.

TCS has been converted into MFIs and pharma

Pharma have been underperforming .Will it recover its golden days once the US elections are over? Nowadays competition is v tough with too many FTF on the patent expiry days. Views Invited.

Modi govt is working nicely with lot of ministers working hard and results are now visible on ground. Seems lot of juice is left in PSUs from Power,Petroleum,Road ,Defence and related pvt cos in these sectors.Anybody investing in them?

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114

If you do not mind, could you share your latest portfolio? Thanks

115

I had a chance to attend Samir Arora talk in most bearish time period of Feb 2016 and had made some notes. Chanced upon them recently and put it up here lest its lost permanently

  • For last 20 years Indian market return in $ has beaten Warren Buffet returns even the index fund has beaten

  • Equity market do very well over long time & WB has outlived very well.Hanging around is part of job

  • MSCI is flawed and India is at a disadvantage due to it

  • Indian market is v diversified unlike single them market of Russia mostly commodities,Taiwan which is mostly hardware.It both helps and hurts.

  • India has commodity and PSU banks.Lenders to these have lost and it has neutralised whatever saving India had with soft crude

  • The 3 themes he likes .

a) Genuine beneficiaries of liberalisation in India.Ie allowed to do something which was not allowed earlier by GOI .Eg value migration which happened with BSNL to pvt telecom cos.the same can still happen where govt still has major share like railways,Hospitals,Port Sectors,Airport,Airlines etc. As such he likes GOI theme of privatizing the sector without privatizing the cos.Examples galore like banking,telecoms etc

b) New themes which were so far absent in India .Like DTH ,cable and other examples of urban under penetration

c) Anything that looks like Tech ie Indian cost US prices.

He is bottom up investor in these 3 themes.

What he has left out is

a) Commodities

b) “1 Billion consumer” illusion in India

c) State owned cos

d) Indian cos expanding aggressively overseas.He cares about India and not Indian owners.

  • He doesnt believe in concentrated portfolios. If the co is good & from a good sector he buys 35-45 stocks

  • He believes in long and short approach(60 & 40%).Buying some and shorting some stocks

  • He doesnt like Ease of Doing and too many reforms.Eg he doesnt want too many new bank guys

  • He was v prescient on talks of deep recession engulfing the world in Jan Feb 2016 strongly repudiating it saying as US is the driver of world economy.China is a factory country.If crude and commodity crashes some body gains like India.

  • China has already overinvested and for many years China will not be a consumer of commodities.

  • He doesnt has any short term views on equities but returns will be good after 1 year as base effect will become in favor of Indian cos.Several cos had massive losses in the quarters ending on March 16.

  • Raghuram Rajan has saved India as he has forced and exposed the banking underbelly.Just imagine the scene if he had not done so.India has to return $ 35 Billion bonds this year in 2016.

  • He continues to like private banks ,NBFCs and his other old favorite themes

  • He is quite negative on most of Indian ecommerce cos and would like to short them. Only a few like Ola and maybe Paytm will survive.r

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116

I have applied in Dilip Buildcon Ltd IPO n bought more on listing.

117

For me the game changers were 2 stocks Maruti@125 and TCS @ 212.5 in 2003-04.

These were the 2 opportunities where I took big bets even on leverage and sizeable impact was made on your net worth. So when conviction and opportunity is there backup the truck and load.

I am a voracious reader but read entire gamut including non financial topics. Unfortunately this at times leads to diluting your attention span which is v dangerous.

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118

Aptly said Vivek ji…

Regards,
Bharat

119

So have you found your next Maruti & TCS?

120

There have been several thanks to Gods grace and great friends and forums like VP. Hope u had a look at my PPT posted on 11 Jan.