Vivek Gautam Portfolio


(Vivek Gautam) #244

Besides highlighting the factors in my earlier post , best returns come in after 3- 4 years of holding provided story & tailwinds are still intact like happened with Avanti GWR Shilpa etc.

If the facts change & tailwinds disappear switching to a better sector with tailwinds helps greatly. I recently switched from MFIs to HFCs,

As posted earlier by me good allocation & averaging on upside from your existing portfolio stocks greatly helps.


(hemtan100) #245

Phenomenal achievement Vivek. Mine has been a more sedate 35% CAGR in the last 5 years, bosted in part due to the over-allocation to HFCā€™s in the last 1.5 years.
Do you see an opportunity in the marketā€™s reaction to PFC Q4 results where most of the plants would be commissioned in FY18 and FY19 and hence their provisioning stands reversed?


(Rakesh ) #246

Great CAGR Vivekji !!
Indeed you are inspiration for all of us.

As you mentioned you have recently shifted to HFCs, which cos do you feel are good?
What is your take on on HFCs space as a whole for next 3-4 years?

Disc- I am invested in HFCs, would love your view on the sectorā€¦


(Vivek Gautam) #247

yes seems so.FY 18 results shud be better after this hopefully one time cleaning up by Rajiv Sharma the new MD.
Incidentally he was the MD at REC when he followed RBI directive on his own & did flushing in March 15 & 16 itself . REC remained aloof from this shock at PFC


(Vivek Gautam) #248

I added to my old positions in HFCs. Indias mortgage GDP ratio at 9% implies huge opp size.


(sta) #249

Hi
How do you average up. Do you depend on technicals?
Thanks


(Vivek Gautam) #250

Once the company executes I buy more forgetting the price anchoring.I convert stocks not executing into the ones that do


(sta) #251

Thanks for the reply. Could you give an example. You mean you are expecting 20% growth and if the company gets that you average up without. Thinking whether the price has run up or not. Do see the quaterly results to make your decision
Thanks


(Vivek Gautam) #252

Yes basically to see if management is walking the talk or not . Go through the old ARs & read what he was promising? has he able to achieve that or not? offcourse results are best way to judge that.


(sanketkulkarni1987) #253

Vivek ki, congrats on your excellent performanceā€¦ could you please throw some light on how do you calculate your portfolio returns ā€¦ do you use the nav method ? Also when you say 9.25x do you mean the nav has jumped 9.25 times in last 5 years ā€¦ I am still figuring out the best method to track pf returns and your inputs will be helpful


(Prodipto Mondal) #254

hello,

If possible can you please share your recent portfolioā€¦

thanks
prodipā€¦


(Vivek Gautam) #255

Yes NAV method. I am mostly invested in equities only so not much contribution from other sources .


(Aniket Gore) #256

Outstanding Vivek!

I am more sedate at 7x in 10 years.

Also tend to be more midcap oriented v/s smallcap allocationsā€¦

Wish you continued success - good luck!!


(nitin.verma) #257

Great results vivek . Itā€™s also heartening to see other members doing as well and the value pickr community growing as a whole. I have started investing in 2013 and fortunately it was a low hanging fruit at the time. I have managed to be decent inspite of the negative returns in 2016. Total returns are 7x for a period of 4 years from 2013 january till 2017 may. Hoping to keep the hurdle rate high and my head stableā€¦


(maheshkumar) #258

wow great results nitin sir


(maheshkumar) #259

congrats vivek sir
great returns


(Ram Arvin) #260

Extraordinary performance Vivekā€¦two simple and powerful points u mentionedā€¦be with the tailwind industry and company till they walk the talkā€¦average up without price anchoringā€¦donā€™t show mercy in shifting to another industry with tailwindsā€¦

I feel chemical, HFC and infra to be nextā€¦whatā€™s your take in current and future tailwind industries and any specific stocksā€¦can you pls advise


(Sunny) #261

I find the pmay scheme as tailwind for hfc. But still canā€™t find the reason for so much hope from infra players. In my limited understandingā€‹, I found that the reason why the players of previous bull run donā€™t perform well is due to the competition intensity of the players in existing players. We can hope for a comeback but donā€™t you think that ahead of the normal comeback we need some sort of edge in a company. I might be wrong also. Just shared what I thought.


(Amit) #262

Vivek Ji, it was great talking to you today to understand your investment philosophy. I wish you continued success in this journey of investing. Please share more on this forum as we all look up to you to learn and get better at investing. Sharing is caring. Thanks again :grinning:


(Vivek Gautam) #263

Tks. It was nice speaking to you.Wish I was as smart as you are at your age. Forums like VP have played tremendous role in investment journey of so many investors.Kudos to VP.

I keep on sharing my picks n investment rationale here.But its always better to stick to ones own PF picks until you get a compelling opp like VSCL at TTM PE of 8,RONW of 24%,great cagr due to good opp size ,75% promoter stake & a v ethical IITian first gen promoter having a superb track record already of selling FEM to [email protected] vs IPO price of 40 Rs. No wonder Ramesh Damani bought nearly 1 lac shares at 75 rs.

I had duly mentioned me buying VSCL on 5 june when plenty of stock was available in price range of 56-60 rs.Even on next day when RD bought VSCL has an excellent thread started by Manoj Agarwal on VP.

Is moneycontrol displaying the price of VSCL(Vadivarhe Speciality Chemical Ltds) yet or not? surprising delay & disservice to their readers.