Thank for the update guys.
I think information about volume is important as it is reflective of demand for ATBS. Vinati has a strong low cost competitive advantage in the ATBS business. ~56% of the operating profit comes from the ATBS business and it has been the main growth driver in recent years.
If demand for ATBS does not get significantly impacted by the fall crude prices, and the ATBS market continues growing at 10-15%, then it would give me comfort as an investor as I know that Vinati will be able to reinvest (by adding capacity) in its moat, sustain a very high ROC, and grow earnings accordingly.
Vinati is also diversifying into other products that it expects will contribute significantly to its topline, but I don’t know if Vinati has or will be establish a moat in these products.
A company that has a wide moat business, is able to reinvest in that wide moat business due to strong demand prospects, and is trading at 16x earnings, sounds like a bargain.
However, a company that has a wide moat business that it cannot reinvest into, and must deploy capital elsewhere, is a more uncertain investment. In such a case a 16x multiple may not be a bargain price.