Many of us have been pondering over what to with VP Portfolio picks - most of which have seen tremendous stock performance - many of whom have been big winners.
It’s important to keep in perspective the kind of spectacular growths registered by most of these businesses. In some cases like Ajanta Pharma and Kaveri Seeds - we have seen these kind of growths being responsible for overvaluation-undervaluation playing catch-up. And therefore there is NO DEBATE on recommended actions.
However there are a few like Mayur Uniquoters,. Astral Poly Technik and Atul Auto which may look over-valued to most folks. So why are we not recommending a complete exit for say Astral Poly Technik at ~50x trailing earnings (last 12 months)??
A more nuanced approach to Calibrated exits from our biggest winners has been outlined - after deliberations with many senior investors/fund managers over the last one month and more. We are sure most of us will benefit - form the experience sharing already captured therein - and we hope many more useful insights will emerge - to help us navigate what may be uncharted waters for most of us.
I agree with Rohit Sir’s view. A few other things to look at would be Mkt Cap vis-a-vis the Opportunity Size. The kind of mind-share (along with the market share) these companies are capturing.
Another important aspect from price point of view is : Each time,Astral , Atul or Page have captured new highs, they hav stayed there and consolidates big time, before resuming their next up-move.
Can someone please share with me the link showing stock analysis of Shriram City Union. Public portfolio reports says it was recommended on 29th June 2014. Can some one please guide me where to look for these recommendations or analysis.
The first things to do is to check the Home page - scroll down for - Stock Story and Management Q&A Section if the business has been formally dissected. You will find Shriram City Union Finance there.
Going through these 2 structured info-pieces will apprise you about 80-90% of what you need to know to understand and appreciate the business. Post that its a good idea to check the Forum discussions (- use the Search Box at Top Banner RHS), fire more questions or help in finding out more about the business.
This is the official VP Public Portfolio Recommendation and VP Scorecard thread. You can find all the earlier recommendations made roughly every 6 months - by scrolling up/down through the numbered links (1 2 3 4 5 etc) at the bottom of the page.
Kitex Garments Stock Story - we will attempt to provide at the earliest
ValuePickr CORE Team has come out with following Recommendation for those with a clear 2-3 year holding horizon.
ValuePickr Long TermPortfolio
Recco Date
CMP
Recco
Kitex Garments
23 Aug, 2014
332
BUY/accumulate on declines.
Recommendation Guidelines:
BUY/Accumulate on declines: Visibility is strong. Available at 20x 1yr Forward PE. Fair PE Range 20x-25x
In view of recent run up in prices, it is advisable not to chase the stock. One can add on consolidation/correction.Better entry points may be available along with general market trends, and should be used for averaging down
Regular readers are advised to adopt a cautious approach, assess if you are comfortable giving the benefit of doubt on some What Does not Add-Upissues(click on the link to know more), and only then heed the Recommendations, which if you read clearly has been issued with theCaveat - DO NOT CHASE THE STOCK! Buy around CMP! Accumulate on Declines.
Warning to Novice Investors:In our considered view, What doesn't add up - are big gaps between stated and what seems to be the current picture on a few specifics (that are material as per current understanding; we retain the right to modify this stance with new data/information, and/or when more clarity emerges from Management-speak)
Just a suggestion from my side to the VP Admin team as per my understanding on what i read about SEBI analyst guidelines we are not allowed to put a buy sell or hold or explicitly recommend any stocks.
But we can still inform, analyze and communicate to fellow VP members using a different terminology say like the future prospects the stock in discussion are
1). Good - sort of a Buy
2). OK - Sort of a Hold
3). Not Good - Sort of a sell.
We could still maintain a list of stocks like the VP public portfolio may be renaming it to Watchlist or something else and then having a view on each stock on the list under the future prospect column.
I have been reading up stuff in the threads, It has been a wonderfull learning experience from all the insights that get shared on VP. I think it would immensely help newbies like me and everyone else if we still continue the VP porfolio in some manner. Would greatly appreciate if we can work around it somehow instead of not updating it.
I feel it is good not to give any recommendations on this forum as I have recently come across quite a few people (with zero idea of any company on Valuepickr scorecard and zero knowledge about stock market as such, invested randomly in VP recommended stocks or the entire portfolio). I think it is good that many people got benefitted from this. But this holds a long term risk both for VP forum and also for these lay investors as in stock market it is very difficult to be consistently right for a very very long period of time.
Since I myself was unaware about VP popularity till few months back, I never tried to check with people about why they invested in a specific stock (it is actually none of my business).
My suggestion to VP core team would be …
Disclose your holding and entry price and exit price as soon as you buy or sell a stock on this thread…
If that doesn’t suit you, then please disclose it as soon as you complete a purchase or sell.
Anyone discussing a stock, outside core team (like me) should mandatorily disclose if he bought it hold it / ever hold it / sold it / studying it etc.
It is naive to assume that everyone would follow it but I do feel, if VP needs to remain transparent, wants to hold its high moral ground and try to help small investors (like the ones I mentioned above) it is imperative to develop certain disclosure norms as an “Honor Code”.
Disclosure of a holding or action doesn’t tantamount to recommendation … You can very well mention that at the entry page of the site. Persons who agree to that condition would only be allowed to enter the site.
Today, ValuePicker Scorecard(now, unofficial) has crossed 1 Crore Rs, with an investment of 18 lakhs, created a wealth of around 5.5 baggers over the period of less than 4 years.
My heartiest congratulations to all the Senior Value Pickers, Donald, Ayush, Hitesh, Vinod and many others, who gave their valuable experience and those who trusted and invested in it.
I concur with the general view that Valuepickr seniors should come out with stock discussions when they narrow down on a stock opportunity. This would be a lifeline for novice investors like me. It may be in the form of stock discussion only like management interviews, stock valuations, future prospects, expansion plans etc and with no specific recommendation to buy or accumulate. This way we can read through all the discussion and take an independent view to invest or not. This will not be in violation of SEBI rules I assume.
Vikas, at this point, the reason for senior’s silence is that I dont think there are many (if any) stock opportunities!
We should use this time to spend more time on reading about the greats rather than study businesses. Ofcourse, we should have a shopping list ready for when a correction comes!
I suggest to explore possibility of continuing scorecard thread as it was being maintained in past. I am not aware of exact guidelines/ mandatory requirements for stock recommendation to be made by anyone. However I request administrator & senior member to explore possibility for the same with wording it properly supported with adequate dis-clouser/statement in line with SEBI requirements?
I am a new user. The last reply to this topic is 188 days old & portfolio is 1 year old. Will this portfolio be updated periodically or is it closed? How the things function here?
