ValuePickr Public Portfolio


(Vimal Dixit) #81

Donald…whenever I read you I feel dwarfed…not only you have created a great forum…the generosity in thoughts, entire thought process and quality of expression is…just great, keep the way it is.


(Supratik) #82

Thanks Admin for acknowledging our request.Great implementation!!

THANKS A TONNE!!


(Binu) #83

The new table on the home page definitely helps new visitors to the site. Glad to see the valupickrs driving the changes and admins open to implementing relevant ones.

Donald, if you like any help with refreshing the portal, let me know. I can be of some help.


(biju john) #84

Donald/Administrator,

eagerly waiting for the reco on kaveri,it seems to be hovering at a price which seems to be attractive,the stock has been discussed threadbare,is there something that seems to be bothering you?i have been holding it and buying since the time hitesh introduced it.Most of the stocks in my portfolio are valuepickr ones and i just held it once i was convinced of it.Ajanta pharma,mayur and pi did well for me(held on to PI,despite mahesh giving up half way through,maybe iam disinclined to buy and sell too many times).Does Kaveri fit into the same model.We cant be tracking packets sold etc every year and is it a good pick for the long term,irrespective of cotton acreage etc.The valuepickr stock which didnt do well for me was gujarat reclaim ,which i sold.Iam somehow not convinced of inclusion of avanti feeds in the valuepickr portfolio.I can conclude that in the last two years since i have followed valuepickr discussions,have made decent returns.


(Manish Vachhani) #85

Iam portfolio

Avanti Feeds is an opportunist portfolio call, not a long term portfolio call.


(JatinK) #86

Hi Admin & Donald,

Most of Valuepickr picks have performed really well in last 2-3 years. As a result of that, most (like PI, Ajanta, Mayur, Astral) are fairly valued now i.e at 15-20 PE.

So, over next 2-3 years, chances of PE expansion are very minute for these stocks. What we will get now is just the earnings growth.

So, I think, its high time to research & analyze & recommend next set of 5-6 stocks which can repeat Valuepickr’s past performance. Stocks which can show not just earnings growth but also PE expansion. Some stocks which look promising but needs to be researched more - Acrysil, Kitex Garments, RS software, Zensar Tech, Orbit Exports, Selan Exp etc.

Request you to analyze these/ other stocks further.


(Vijay D'Souza) #87

I would like to express my deep gratitude to Donald and our other senior valuepickrs for the excellent guidance and humble and gracious way of answering to almost all the queries posted by us.

Almost all the stock picks at valuepickr have had a dream run for the past year.

This refers to the Astral Polytechnik, Atul Auto and Kaveri seeds. Are you going to post a recommendation on these stocks. Eagerly waiting your views on these stocks.

Rgds

Vijay


(Rudra Chowdhury) #88

There is lot of discussion and much deliberation on Capital allocation. Since it is somewhat deeply intermingled with one’s conviction, we need a allocation free benchmark in order to analyze the true benefits of capital allocation.

The Valuepick portfolio have had tremendous success in the recent past, while all major indices have moved no where over last 3-5 years. Hence, the portfolio would serve us as the ideal benchmark to gauge our own portfolio performance.

If after much deliberation our current capital allocations and portfolios are unable to beat/match this benchmark, it is simply better to mirror the Valuepickr portfolio itself.

Assumptions:

  • The portfolio initiated with 12 recos between 12-May-2010 and 29-Mar-2011. Rs 1 lac is put into each reco at the recommendation date.
  • Stocks are exited on recommended exit dates and cash added back. Once a stock is sold, the net proceeds are added back to cash pool.
  • For each new ADD recommendation on both existing/fresh stocks, purchases worth 1 Lac is made.
  • Dividends are ignored, so is transaction costs and other charges, which cancels each other
  • Opportunistic portfolio is ignored for this benchmarking as it pertains to long term investments only.

Current Performance:

  • There have been 17 BUY and 8 SELL transactions since May-2010. The current PF consists of 6 stocks only.
  • The portfolio has compounded money at a staggering **74.2% CAGR **turning the initial 12 lakhs to 45.18 lakhs at present.

Benchmarking:

The current VP NAV stands at 37.65. The NAV will be published on a quarterly basis, which would help us benchmark our respective portfolios against it.

Valuepickr-Scorecard.xlsx (15.6 KB)


(Administrator) #89

Guys,

This is the official thread for ValuePickr Scorecard. And is meant for Updates!

Kindly help keep this space clutter free, for easy access to official updates.

The Rudra analysis and all comments/refinements/suggestions subsequently may please be re-posted (if considered necessary) in this ValuePickr Public Portfolio analysis thread. Kindly do so within 48 hours, or latest by 13:00 hours, Wednesday 27 Nov, 2013. Discussions can be continued in that thread, freely.

Please co-operate. Beyond 27 Nov, 13:00 hours the recent spate of messages will be deleted from this official ValuePickr Scorecard thread.


(Pankaj J) #90

Hi Donald, Adminstrator,

Can you please remove word “scorecard” from the title/link.? The score card is also linked to cricket and hence the link is blocked through proxy. I can read all the threads but not this thread.

Thanks


(Divi Uma Maheswara Rao) #91

Hello Donald/Admin,

when do we get updated scorecard…


(Divi Uma Maheswara Rao) #92

Dear Admin,

Why PAGE and GRUH has not feaured into Value pickr score card…

as those 2 are solid long term bets along with Mayur…and those are consistant 25% growers…

can u please enumarate the reasons…


(BIPRADAS BANERJEE) #93

Sir,

Can you please update and attach the link for the updated scorecard.


(Excel Monkey) #94

Waiting for ValuePickr ka next dhamaka

Both PI and polymed are up 50 to 100% since recommendation

PI Industries Management Q&A Link: …/…/…/company/p-i-industries/management-q-a/management-q-a-sep-9-2013 , TermPortfolio Recco Date | CMP | Recco | PI Industries
150

Recommendation Guidelines:

Buy, Add on declines:


(Amit Goyal) #95

Dear Admin,

I am new to this community. The previous ValuePickr Scorecard was in June 2013. I am eagerly waiting for the latest November-December 2013 ValuePickr Scorecard. I am refreshing this page two times every day in anticipation !! Hope you will understand !! :slight_smile:

Regards,

Amit Goyal.


(sandeep) #96

Hi Donald,

Given that you have completed most of the Management Q&A, can we expect an update on the valuePickr portfolio ? Any convinced bet for addition into long term valuePickr portfolio ?

Eagerly waiting.


(Donald Francis) #97

Guys,

Please be patient. This job is not an easy one, as it may seem to some:).

Work is ongoing. There may be a couple of additions to the Portfolio if Conviction in the stories build up based on further work that needs to be completed.

Cheers.


(jitendra) #98

any new stock for add ? I have joined few days back this form


(Hemant V Bhatia) #99

Hello Mr Jitendra,If you have joined recently then please go through the whole forum ,insted of jumping from thread(this one) to thread(Hitesh portfolio) asking for tips

form.


(Administrator) #100

Time for another review of our Portfolio Picks and fresh Recommendations. We are delighted at the continued stellar performance of the businesses we reposed confidence in. However it is also time to introduce a measure of objectivity in how we view the opportunities - in the light of current (high) valuations.

Taking off form our Capital Allocation & ART of Valuation threads, Business Category A, A+, B+, B - introduced. Some new columns introduced like Fair PE Band, 2-5 Yr Potential PE Band, 1Yr Forward PE (while recommending). We hope these additions will enhance the quality of our recommendations - highlight and encourage active discussion/thinking on Business Quality!

This is a continuous learning process. We hope to keep improving on this small start. Hopefully this will be the spur for further refinements in our investment thinking and decision-making.



ValuePickr Scorecard 5: Feb 2014

ValuePickr Long-Term Portfolio

Idea Initiation

Initial Reccomendation

Category

Absolute Returns

Annualised Returns

CMP

Trailing P/E

Fair P/E Band

2-5 yr Potential

Current View (at CMP)

Qualifying Comments

Min 2-5 years Hold Timeframe

Date

Price

Date

Price

1 yr Fwd P/E

12-Feb-14

1

Mayur Uniquoters*

18-Aug-10

59

10-Feb-11

60.0

6x

A

673%

97%

464

19.68

16-18x

18-20x

HOLD; Add on big declines

2

Ajanta Pharma*

17-Jan-11

90

17-Jan-11

60.2

7x

A+

1503%

147%

965

19.15

20-22x

22-25x

BUY; Add on declines

Attractive on 1yr fwd basis

3

Astral Poly Technik

2-Mar-11

124

29-Mar-11

50

12x

A

672%

103%

386

27.59

18-20x

20-22x

HOLD; Book Partial Profits

Valuations running far ahead

4

PI Industries*

7-Mar-11

59

7-Mar-11

59.4

12x

A+

312%

62%

245

20.63

16-20x

20-25x

HOLD; Add on big declines

5

Kaveri Seed Company*

18-Jan-11

67

14-Aug-12

160

10x

A+

228%

121%

524

16.54

16-20x

20-25x

HOLD; Add on declines

6

Poly Medicure

6-Apr-11

261

20-Nov-12

200

12x

A+

103%

77%

405

21.78

18-20x

20-25x

HOLD; Add on declines

7

Shilpa Medicare#^

18-Aug-10

217

12-Feb-14

321

13x

A+

-

-

321

18.54

18-20x

20-25x

BUY

Attractive on 1yr fwd basis

8

Alembic Pharma^

7-Aug-12

69

12-Feb-14

232

15x

A+

-

-

232

19.80

18-20x

20-25x

BUY

Attractive on 1yr fwd basis

* Price adjusted for Splits/Bonus

Notes:

1.Usual names figure in the Recco list - Ayush Mittal, Hitesh Patel, Mahesh Shah, Donald Francis.

2. More names making solid value-addition to community â Tirumal, Omprakash, Dhwanil, T Anil Kumar, Vinod MS, Rudra. Raja Panda, May the tribe keep increasing!

3. This is as impressive a record as any â especially as Overall Markets have gone nowhere. We need to keep up the good work and introduce more quality businesses

4. # An exception was made this time in the case of Shilpa Medicare, where a Management Q&A has not been completed. However Senior ValuePIckrs have enough insights into the solidity of business/management and strategic plans

5. ^ Alembic Pharma has significant exposure to US Market and carries USFDA inspection related risks. Shilpa Medicare is going for USFDA approvals for its API and formulations plants (likely in 12-18 months timeframes)



ValuePickr Opportunistic Portfolio

Idea Initiation

Reccomendation

Category

Absolute Returns

Annualised Returns

CMP

Trailing P/E

Fair P/E Band

2-5 yr Potential

Current View

Qualifying Comments

Min 6-9 months Hold Timeframe

Date

Price

Date

Price

1 yr Fwd P/E

12-Feb-14

1

Atul Auto*

19-Sep-11

65

10-Oct-11

65

5x

B+

342%

89%

289

11.19

8-12x

12-14x

Hold; Add on declines

2

Avanti Feeds

05-Sep-12

157

01-Sep-13

205

3.5x

B

78%

-

365

5.37

4-8x

8-10x

BUY; Add on declines

Attractive on 1yr fwd basis

3

Indag Rubber

15-Nov-11

147

01-Dec-11

150

4x

B

58%

23%

237

4.53

4-8x

4-8x

Exit/Book Profits

Notes:

1.The Opportunistic Portfolio exercise first arose out of discussions and needs from a Capital Allocation framework point of view

2.Accent is on sheer undervaluation, but good improving fundamentals, low risks with low debt, and good dividends - these are the investment cornerstones

3.The Opportunistic Portfolio is also a good way of keeping enough CASH available â having the flexibility to switch, redeploy, and take advantage of corrections in the market

4.Couple more contenders are under serious consideration currently. However completing due diligence may take some more time


END OF RECCO