(Growth_without Debt) #223

I think we are exaggerating negativity associated with Vakrangee by comparing it with Satyam. Both has different business and different business model. However, truth will prevail ! Who has malafied interest Promoters or guys who want to buy at low by crashing its price by floating old news in news media !
Just wait & watch.

Just one example - Nobody doubt about honesty of Piramal group. But that group also had SEBI investigation ! This is cut-out from recent right issue application !

Did - Invested with conviction!

(rvetri) #224

Satyam did not fall 50% at that time due to allegation. It fell because of
2008 global financial crisis. And all the fifty baggers from 2008 till date
fell 50% too in 2008. The comparison is erroneous. By the 50% loss logic,
nobody should have touched any of the indian best stocks after 2008. And
such logic without any basis - precisely offers OPPORTUNITIES.

(sandeepayachit) #225

Piramal Enterprise :grin:


It wouldn’t hurt if the company issued a no default statement to CARE ratings.

(GP Harsha) #227

One more observation, during Satyam saga promoter was holding only close to 3% of shares… and i believe those were already pledged. I understand VK promoters are holding more than 42% and none of them are pledged.

(mehta.piyush44) #228

Was Satyam a debt free co at the time
Also promoters were holding less than 10% whereas here it’s a debt free co
Promoter holding is 41 %
And it will be the biggest beneficiary of Modi’s insurance scheme for the
poor which is allocated in this budget as it is the only co which has last
mile connectivity
Also I m guessing on some crypto/ blockchain like news in vakrangee in

(atul1082) #229

What exactly is this?Could u pl elaborate?I find vakrangee is also there in list

(rvetri) #230

Ohh… Another false allegation…sebi and finance ministry had decided to
cancel this no default notification till further notice… All fake
irrelevant news except for proof of fraud…

(Growth_without Debt) #231

(phreak) #233

@rvetri - You are not viewing this objectively. This is not a judgement and we are not judges. Burden of proof is on the person who is alleging something and your stance seems to be the same which is alright. But the difference here is that, for something to be judged, we need all the relevant facts and there is information asymmetry here as the promoters are always going to know better than us minority shareholders. This is of course true for every company listed in the bourses and not particular to Vakrangee.

Some who are pointing the red flags might be doing it so that a collaborative research can at least somewhat even out the information asymmetry here. It is left to the ones who want to put their money in if they consider this an opportunity despite whatever is being pointed out. Everyone’s risk tolerance is different. The idea here is not to judge or to forge opinions but to list red flags as we come across them because that’s what this forum has been good at.

Right until proven wrong seems to work for you but for some people when it comes to their money, wrong until proven right is how they see red flags. That sort of inversion is very important to question our opinions the way an Einstein, Darwin, Planck or Munger did, so that when we make a decision we can be sure we have considered all the risks.

(butun) #234 This was concluded to be a procedural lapse

(Growth_without Debt) #235

Mr. Ranbir Chand Datt has been appointed as a Nominee Director of Life Insurance Corporation of India (‘LIC’) on the Board of the Company in place of Mr. T. Sitharthan by the Board of Directors at their meeting held on February 12, 2018.

(rvetri) #236


Thanks to your balanced views. I am also asking unbiased balanced questions

The question to ask is - who decides that all that Vakrangee did was wrong
in the first place. None of their customers who are the who is who have
complained. None of their franchisees have complained. None of the public
who use their services have complained. But people who have neither a
direct relationship nor an indirect relationship have some allegation based
on hearsay. And based on some accounting policy. Which is fine - Did they
ever ask the management to clarify their accounting related questions. I
don’t see any.
And erroneous link is made to Satyam. And erroneous report that Satyam fell
50% due to an allegation. There was absolutely no allegation against Satyam
till the scam was declared by chairman and MD himself. Nobody ever had any
hint till that date when the chairman told everyone. And the price fell 50%
before that and that was due to the 2008 financial crisis when every share
fell 50%.

And what is the allegation ten days back. A news report based on something
which happened one to two years back and something which SEBI discarded as
nothing to probe into at that time itself. So when the news was live,
nothing happened to the stock. And when the news is recirculated after 1 or
2 yrs, the stock falls. So, is there a scam within the company or someone
outside the company is in the scam…

To my mind - no company can cook its books and keep paying taxes on cooked
income for 10+ yrs. Unless, the company itself is authorised by RBI to
print money so that they can pay those taxes. And it is precisely such fear
without any basis - provides opportunities.

(Peabody) #237

There is no dearth of gullible investors in India. Time and again that truth resurfaces.No wonder promoters like Vakrangee and Tree house will thrive

(Prashant Negi) #238

There are many companies where one can make money. Then why invest in a place, where there is doubt.

(khushi) #239

Today full page front page add of vakrangee in Hindustan times and Gujarat Samachar and some other papers too.

Seen such a add of vakrangee for the first time.

Disc : not invested no planning to buy unless it falls to 100 or below.

(Kumar Saurabh) #240

Few months back we had witnessed a similar situation where people lost money. For an investor, it is difficult to find and tag something to a fraud . It is a game of probability on various symptoms (even for institutions who rely on probabilistic predictive models by SAS etc unless the forensic teams get exact evidences , at least the forensic starts with a high probability cases)and how well we are able to identify those symptoms. Also, the word “fraud” can have varied definitions for every stakeholder . So, I would rather call it financial irregularities.
Would suggest one to read “financial sheniganians” on accounting irrregularities . Also would suggest to read “quantitative value” on quantitative models to find sympts of major accounting irregularity. Ultimately, everyone has to take a call by defining his own threshold line but one must know what lies there or what does not lie there and how severe it is from his own reference line. Had done some work just to emphasize on importance of analysis and due diligence to avoid future surprise in such cases. The analysis was done for only 3 years of annual report and financial statements for a period between 5 years to 2 years before the mess up came in public. Idea was to highlight the importance of research. Here the company was a debt free company with a PE backing with a visible franchise in a recession free sector. Problem happens when despite of our ability to do the hard work, we do not do or get biased by our own behavioral limitations in some cases. Some cases r easy some r difficult but it is important to do what is required .Attaching my findings to learn from history. Disc: not invested, not interested .

Dissecting Annual Reports and Governancev1.pdf (1.8 MB)

(phreak) #241

Something I found interesting in the shareholding pattern.

There were a bunch of companies - Seahorse, Highpoint, Abhirati, Newtree, Cyberbetix, Ashtavakra, Bluepearl who all took huge positions in FY11/FY12 - All of them are Mumbai based real-estate or trading companies. These have steadily offloaded over the last few 5 years at different rates of return (See Price field). These companies disappeared from the holding in Dec '17 completely and then came the big crash.

Interestingly LIC made its entry with a huge position in Mar '13 and is now holding the bag with a rather large position.

(neil_loamas) #242

thanks @phreakv6, very interesting pattern. Instead of March if we could get December, it would have been more vivid. Anyway, thanks

(Growth_without Debt) #243

I appreciate this forum to dig in all corners to build confidence/conviction for taking near to correct decision.
But if you see at positive angle of the share holding pattern, all such trading companies were out before March 16. Now Vakrangee have genuine share holders.
Suspicious point - After exiting Vakrangee by such trading companies, Vakrangee share price not corrected but raised more than double after March 16. So these people could not re-enter. Hence, to re-enter they might applied dirty tricks to crash the price. The news was also in Mumbai Mirror edition only !!