@rajpanda I have been following Uniply for about 3-4 months now ever since the management changed. I got the opportunity to talk to Keshav couple of months back and it did look interesting to me as well . I followed up my conversation by doing some on-ground research I did some scuttlebutt in Gurgaon and found that Uniply is an unknown brand. No one keeps it. The ATS no one acknowledges as a product and mostly people just dish it. I also through a friend got some feedback from the Chennai market In Chennai nothing has really changed (This was done very recently). I also spoke to an ex-employee who shared that they are extremely small in TN markets such as Coimbatore, Madurai etc
So at this moment, you are really taking Keshav’s talk on face value without any numbers and also the claim that they are leaders in TN is in question as per my feedback.
Now coming to the industry- my reading after doing scuttlebutt and going through the numbers of all the listed players is that the market is extremely competitive. Most players like Uniply are debt-heavy and they make average returns at best. If you just go out and ask for a ply you will be swamped by options and you can’t really make much difference between a Rs 50 ply and Rs 150 ply. The implication of this is that brand creation is extremely difficult, only Green and Century have been able to create some brand recall- that too after so many years of investing into S&M.
From whatever data one could gather, it would be very difficult for someone to build a ‘brand’ in this market, especially coming from behind. Sure GST will help, and the move towards organized trade will help, but I would wait for the basic financials to improve.
Bulk of the trade still happens in cash-even for branded players, that’s a risk too.
The share was taken up to 37 and then dumped to 20 bucks a while back and it has now started its surge again. Its always a bit uncomfortable if the shares only do a UC or an LC and that too consistently.
Net net, Prudence would be to wait and watch and if the story plays out then you can still make a good return, but right now the risk reward is not very much in your favor.