Few words from Ujjivan’s HR Head
Few Insights on how Ujjivan’s competitors are faring in Q4-
Equitas - 400+ % rise in NP in Q4 YoY
Bandhan - 20% rise in NP in Q4 YoY
Disclosure: Invested
I am not sure of exact numbers, but Ujjivan has done more provisioning than Equitas and Satin. Hence their books will be cleaner than others after 1-2 quarters.
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Some interesting things-
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Ujjivan will announce the result on 10th May.
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Ujjivan is the HDFC Securities pick of the week.
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Found this video on youtube which gives high level idea of Ujjivan-
Ujjivan Financial Services - YouTube
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Ujjivan has made a breakout 1st time in last 4 months with this level of delivery. Today’s data shows delivery of more than 600000 shares which was last seen at this price levels on 18th Jan.
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Found some technical charts-UJJIVAN LONG for NSE:UJJIVAN by Subrahmanyambv — TradingView India
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See this-Ujjivan now at home
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Ujjivan weekly. Seems to have opened this week above the resistance trendline. Maybe its time to revisit those 2016 highs.
Disc: Invested during demonetisation
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Reason for today’s hissy fit. Although Ujjivan doesn’t give farm loans, its just the weakening of obligation to payback what is owed that spooks the market perhaps. It is sickening how this supposedly reformist govt. too resorts to populism when it concerns its own survival.
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If giving money to the poorest is populism then what can one say.
One should not be so blinded by personal preference that we forget how poor this country is.
I personally don’t believe populism is the solution for poverty. It patronises it. But that’s a discussion for another day in another forum, not here.
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Kotak Institutional Equities have changed the status of Ujjivan from Add to reduce. However, they kept the TP of 420 unchanged.
Do you believe giving farm loan waiver will elevate the country out of poverty? Can we work on finding/compiling data to find how many people were elevated out of poverty by farm loan waiver given by Uttar Pradesh?
Do we have any other model of poverty elevation to look for?
Definitely it won’t pull them out of poverty. That no one is questioning. But to have these discussions you need a full stomach.
Till such a point that they are malnourished and incapable of joining the economic machine we must take care of them. You can go to any remote town and see what I am talking about.
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To me the logic explained here looks too presumptive. There are at least 3 events which have to fall in place (i.e. BJP winning elections, manifesto being implemented and loan waiver for farmers impacting the MFI business of Ujjivan) in order to the risk being realized. Moreover, each of the event is mutually exclusive and hence the probability of all three lining up is too small. This seem to be case of “man with a hammer” syndrome.
Discl: No holding in Ujjivan however have been tracking this sector (SFB and microfinance) closely.
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All the prominent MFIs (Satin, Ujjivan and Bharat financials) have clearly explained multiple times that Loan waiver is not a Risk factor for them. But still Analyst are ignorant about the facts.
Summary-
-SFB was not mentioned in manifesto.
-Even if it was covered, govt generally compensate the amount
-Only have 1.5% exposure in crop loans in karnataka
-Company has witnessed several manifestos with loan waiver in last 1.5 years like UP, Maharashtra, Punjab, etc. It had minimal effect on Ujjivan.
Farm Loan Waiver in past has started series of defaults by general public as local political goons stops on field officer of MFI from recollection, even though they understand MFI loan is not waived.
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Interview with Sanjiv Bhasin, IIFL
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Only loans provided in Karnataka and categorized as crop loan will be waived. No horticulture loan, farmer loan, etc. will come in this category. - My understanding
Hey can you share the entire report. Would be very helpul!