This is what they said in the concall - "Customers who have not paid a single EMI during November and December is only 41000 accounts, which amounts to an overdue of Rs.70 Crores."
And they already provided provisioning for around 54 crores in Q3.
What you're saying is also correct - Samit Ghosh said in a separate interview that about 180 crore portfolio is at risk and much of that may have to be written off.
Overall will have to wait and see how this plays out - overall write offs could be a little higher than my estimates in best case and a lot higher in worst case - but company will still remain profitable in my view.
Link to the sheet - "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mfX10uGX9mqsnhICj1mppX2mNcR63vImmP05hXewges"
Correct - with cheaper source of funds the finance cost should come down. But if the management has guided for cost to income % at 70 - then either the finance cost will remain the same or Operating Expenses will be much higher in FY18 than FY17.
Cost to Income % = Operating Expenses / (Net Interest Income + Other Income) *100
- Net Interest Income = Interest on loans - Finance Cost
- Other Income = Total Income from Operations - Interest on loans + Other Income in P&L
- Operating Expense = Employee Benefit Expense + Administrative and other expenses + Depreciation and Amortization
Basically what I'm saying is for Ujjivan to show any meaningful earnings growth in FY18 - one of the 2 below has to be true -
1) Income growth more than 55-60%
2) Operating Expenses i.e. Cost to Income much less than 70% - so management guidance to be incorrect
Now upto us to figure out if either of above will happen.