UFlex Ltd - a packed opportunity?

(sri krishna bhutra) #21

Good read

Some recent awards -

Recent Nirmal Bang analyst report -
Please focus on the points mentioned

Technically, stock has recently taken support at 318-320. Looks good on charts too.

Discl - Not invested, planning to invest. No transactions in last 30 days

(Manoj) #22

Hello Jiten, Unable to access your blog. I get this message “This blog is open to invited readers only”.

(Jiten Parmar) #23

Have made it private.

(harshb232) #25

can you please share the article over here.

(shenbal) #26

Got interested in the stock after going through @jitenp presentation … And started exploring in this forum. The concern about the management quality which was raised early on this thread is like an hanging knife on the stock. Is there a new management which is more credible ? If not, the rest of the story may not matter at all …

The stock looks bearish technically as it has retraced more than 61% of the prior upmove and next support on the monthly charts is 250-280. Below 220 (on closing basis) will mean a downtrend has started in the stock. (See chart).

Assuming the management quality has improved and credible, the business story remains intact, the falling price is an opportunity. What the technicals indicate is to buy in instalments to average cost or wait for a turnaround in the stock price sentiment.

@Chanrdrab saw in the thread you have significant investment in the stock. If you are still holding and following this stocks, your views will help those in dilemma …

Disc: Interest but not yet invested.

(Jiten Parmar) #28

When and where did I say, that my view is short term ? It’s a bit improper to pass judgements like “accidental long term”.

Anyway, coming back to Uflex. Business does face short term headwinds. Crude, stabilization of Asepto plant, input costs of paper, aluminium. There is always a lag element of these in the packaging business. So, this and maybe next quarter, results maybe subdued.

And I want to say explicitly, my views are long term in this business. As I view it as more and more as a packaging company, where share of commodity polyfilm business will keep on reducing.

Of course, these are views. Definitely, not any stock recommendations. One must do, what one is comfortable with.

(Chandra) #29

Hello Shenbal, I have exited completely from UFLEX few months back, and stopped tracking this stock closely. Dec 2016 Consolidated OPM 14.03 %Vs. 11.61 % Dec 2017.Not sure the reason. Share is available @ very attractive price ( P/E 6.35 , CMP/BV 0.55 ). Based on March 2018 result , I will decide whether to reinvest in this counter or not.I believe they are yet to declare March 2018 Qtr. result. Best regards, Chandra.


Sales up 6.9% QoQ, up 14.8% YoY.
Net Profit up 36% QoQ, down 5.1% YoY.

Sales up 11.2%.
Net Profit down 10.8%.

Not very good results, in my opinion.
Stock is 15% up today though.

(ragsingh0305) #31

The results were considerably better than market expected…The stock corrected by nearly 40% in last few months on anticipation of lower earnings due to increase is crude oil prices. LDPE, PP resins, the company’s key feed-stocks are cured oil derivatives.


Plastic ban in Maharashtra could be a reason, I think.

(lastgenesis) #35

Dear @jitenp nice presentation sir, looks like a promising bet with current price being half of book value and also at a low PE of 6 before any profit expansion from commodity cycle turning. I am prepared to ignore the promoter issues but a look in the financials threw up 2 points of concern, would like your opinion on those.

a) the tax payment even before deferred tax credit is extremely low

b) related point, inspite of huge profits and healthy cash flow, the company has not been paying dividends.

Coming from the perspective that management has been accused of cooking books, these points seem liek reg flags. your views on the same?

(Jiten Parmar) #36

Low tax is on account of Jammu plant, which has certain exemptions. Which will go away in the future.

They have started paying small dividend now.

(amanbindra) #37

I have been following UFlex pretty closely from almost 1 year now. Being from the Print and Packaging industry myself, i feel the real game changer is going to be the Asepto Plant as there is virtually a huge market out there only running on a single supplier.

They are already one of the top players in normal flexible printing market , though the margins there are not attractive.

Disclosure - Invested . Currently adding to 300-330 Levels to Avg Down.