Trigyn Tech - Multibagger potential

[theashworld]

@bharat19 trigyn has been a multi bagger for me. See my post in May 2015.
Companies like these need to be evaluated with a Graham-like point of view. If it’s absurdly low priced, it’s worth a bet.
So personally I never evaluate such companies based on qualitative factors management track record and so on.
You can’t have all models apply to all companies, you gotta pick and choose what works and live with that.

[phreakv6]

@bharat19 - This failed two of the very basic filters at first glance

1. I don’t think cash is real as the dividend payout is zero and other income is negligible for last several years. This should knock down the book value quite a bit.

2. Now the receivables is about 50% of the market cap. This is a big red flag for me. This sort of ratio usually implies that the receivables are not recoverable and/or Sales reported by the company is spurious.

My gut feel says this company is not worth even 20% of its present value. Am sure lot of red flags will pop out on further digging but its really not worth the effort.

[phreakv6]

@bharat19

No dividend can not be a proof of No Cash. May be company has some other plans for inorganic growth (which mostly all these tech companies claim to do).

Zero dividend when cash is nearly 50% of the market cap and when the company’s RoE is 11%, meaning that the company is not able to deploy capital to add positive economic value on its cost of equity, along with the fact that the cash is not earning anything going by the ‘Other Income’, is sufficient enough proof for me (mileage might vary) that cash isn’t real, especially since this is a tech company which isn’t capital intensive.

@bharat19

Also receivables as a ratio of Market Cap can not be a good criteria.

Good enough criteria for me. Look at some of the gems it (Rec/Mcap > 50%) throws up.

There might be some false-positives in working capital intensive capital goods sectors but I am not interested in them anyway so this works for me.

@bharat19

I know the company may be faking the numbers but we can not be 100% sure of it with this limited knowledge

Being 100% sure of anything is dangerous. When looking to avoid, one doesn’t have to be 100% sure.

[mohdrehan1]

2nd QTR Result

ec69d2d5-b334-4025-854f-07ecbb3f144b.pdf

Looks good. Some apprehensions should get addressed with this. Non payment of dividend still looks like an issue. Not sure why, Here looks like still waiting for clearances from RBI.

No escalation of IT raid after more than 2 months. Risks to me seems to have reduced with this.

Disclosure. Invested.