The stock is presently trading below its 200 day EMA. This a very weak sign in a strong market. The stock has also given a sell signal at 195. Now it can touch 175 where it will make a triple bottom and if it breaks this support it can go all the way to 145-150.
Presently it is taking support exactly at the Bullish Support Line marked in blue at 190. You will observe that the stock has been consistently trading above the Bullish Support Line for the past one year. If it falls below this line then it can go all the way to 134 and subsequently to 128 and 122. Let us hope it turns from 190 and treat the sell signal as a false signal.
Thanks alot for your analysis. I only know about DMAs and nothing more. As all would agree, Gruh has a great business model and it has been a fav of many fund managers. In my opinion, anything below 175 will require a big negative market sentiment/ news. Anyway, if it does go to those levels I plan to load up.
it has been a while since i wrote a detailed technical update. have been very busy over the last few weeks. here it is now:
ajanta - as mentioned in previous several posts, the stock is in primary 3 uptrend. we all can see now what a primary 3 wave can do :). have enjoyed this ride till now. the stock remains a buy on any dip and the immediate support lies around 750-760 region. technically, it is in major intermediate 3 wave of major 1 of primary 3. i would expect a 25-30% correction once this intermediate wave is over and then another strong rally to higher highs.
amara raja - stock has completed its correction of the entire uptrend from dec-11 to jan-13. this rally should now head to 320+ with immediate support around 240.
astral poly - this is another stock in primary 3 uptrend and currently in intermediate 4 correction of major wave 1. after this sideways correction is over(on a close above 420), the stock should rapidly head to 600+. this is getting ready for a big move just like ajanta was a few months back.
atul auto - the correction of the jun-12 to feb-13 uptrend is over and the stock should head to 220+ next over the next several months. immediate support lies at 145-150.
cera - the stock is creating a wave 4 sideways triangle which is long term positive. a breakout from this triangle should lead to 600+ over the next several months. the stock is in strong hands and didn’t correct in the recent smallcap carnage.
granules - the stock seems to have completed its deep correction. confirmation would come on a close above 50 dma which is at 150 right now. once confirmed, the stock should head to 225+ over the next several months.
mayur - currently trying to consolidate above the 200 dma and holding it well. a close above 100 dma at 450 now should signal that the correction is over and stock is ready to move to 500+.
my best picks for the next few months would be astral, cera and ajanta in that order.
disc : as usual this is just my personal analysis. please do you due diligence before investing.
poly med - stock has completed its 3-4 months long sideways consolidation and has started a new uptrend. i am expecting 600+ before this rally peaks over the next several weeks. in the short term its overbought and hence may spend some time around 500 before taking off.
unichem remains one of the weaker pharma stocks on display. it has been consolidating in this this 165-200 range for a long time now. the last support remains at 160 below which fall can accelerate towards 125 levels. a close above 200 would display strength and the stock can then rally to 250+.
la opala - la opala is in a long term uptrend with the firstmajor wave completed at 450 in march this year followed by a sharpwave 2 correction to 300. the stock seems to have bottomed and started the wave 3 uptrend which seems to be in its initial stages and should rally to 550+ over time.
kajaria - rallied in nice 5-wave impulse pattern from dec-10 to nov-12 when it peaked at 260. stock has found support at 38.2% retracement at 185 and has recovered well since then. to confirmthat the correction is over and the new uptrend is underway, the stock has to stay above 210.stock is overbought in the short term and maycorrect or move sideways before the next move up.
wimplast - stock had a nice rally from 200 in jun-12 to 400 in dec-12 before correcting in 3 waves down to 260 in the end of march. correction seems complete and the next uptrend seems underway. i would expect to see 400+ before a size-able correction comes in. long term chart is positive and i expect a move above 600+ over next several months.
sun tv - sun tv did rally till nov-10 in a nice impulsive uptrend, corrected to 210-220 till 2012 and has been rallying since. the rally since that low has not been impulsive. which could mean either the waves are subdividing or the rally is corrective and stock would revisit the lows once the rally is over. the stock has to rally over its recent top of 495 soon or it risks entering the downtrend again to revisit the lows. once 495 is cleared on closing basis, we could see the 2010 highs again. i need to see five clear waves up before i am convinced that it is a long term uptrend. ultil then, risk of seeing 210-220 remains.
DRL - a very clear five waves uptrend to end 2010 followed a long sideways consolidation till jun-12. this seems like major wave 1 and 2 with major wave 3 up underway now. stock seems to be in initial stages of major wave 3 which should ideally rally to 3000+ over next 18-24 months. short term trend is bullish with the stock trading above 50,100 and 200 dma’s. its a stock to buy on dips.
j&k was in a sideways consolidation between 700 and 1000 between mid-2010 to mid-2012 after which it broke out to reach almost 1500 and then sold off to re-test the breakout zone. it is right now consolidating above the breakout level and is also testing 200 dma. if that holds, we should soon see a re-test of 1500. wave-wise, stock is in early stages of final fifth wave uptrend which should take it to 1500-1600 atleast before a size-able correction takes place.
yes, the calls on astral and ajanta worked out quite well. i guess cera is next. it has closed at all time high closing level which indicates a breakout from the trading range.
canfin is stuck in a range between 90 on the downside and 175-185 on the upside for the last 3 years. its a very long term range and any breakout would be significant. it is consolidating above 200 dma for the last many weeks which is a good sign. any breakout above top-end of this range would indicate a rally to 270-275.
gruh- this is one of the leadership stocks in this bull run and has a tendency to test 200 dma and bounceback. it did just that recently and bounced back strongly. it is a strong buy on any such dip. it is currently moving sideways to gather some steam for a breakout past 250. once that happens, rally to 325-350 should be next.
repco - it has very small price-history to derive any conlusions but the stock has been rallying nicely since it broke out of its post IPO consolidation range.
accelya - this is in very strong uptrend with currently in last stages of wave 3 uptrend. the stock broke out after a small consolidation below 400 for a few months. it is currently correcting for a potential re-test of the breakout zone at 400. should be a buy on any dip towards that. longer term support is way lower at 313(200 dma) which is unlikely to be tested in the near future. this may see a rally to 600 if 400 holds over the next few months.
