Sorry for the delay in replying. At times I am lost because you do not know in which post one is expecting a reply from me. If you do not read all the posts, it becomes difficult to follow. How do we solve this problem?
Titan made a double bottom at 225 and then moved up once again in the X column. It broke the resistance at 250 and retraced some gains on weak markets. If the markets are strong, the stock should once again touch 275 where it will make a double top. The next two resistances are then 290 and 310.
sundaram completed a five wave impulsive advance from 250 in dec-11 to 550 in dec-12 which means the long term trend is bullish. the stock is currently correcting the advance with more of time correction and the price correction has been very shallow. this indicates strong underlying demand. once the correction is over, the stock should head to 600+. looking at the weak smallcap/midcap market, i would be careful buying it at the moment unless the stock rallies above the recent high at 530. one can look at initiating buy closer to 200 dma at 448 all the way down to 400 which is the bottom of wave 4.
good that you asked. i wanted to post an update on these anyway.
gruh - testing 200 dma and still correcting its 2011-12 advance. thecorrection still has been shallow looking at the rise before that so i would expect the time-wise correction to continue for a bit longer. confirmation of the correction being over will come once 235 is crossed on a closing basis.
kaveri - trying to consolidate above the 200 dma(currently at 1120). this has been another case of only time correction. 200 dma should act as support in panic selloffs. next support would come in around 1000 region. once 1400 is crossed on a closing basis, next big uptrend should be underway
astral - stock continues to be one of the strongest in the market. it has been consolidating sideways between 340 and 400 after a very strong uptrend in 2012. this is super bullish over the long term and once stock breaks above 410 on aclosing basis, rally to 550+ should be underway. 200 dma at 326 should contain any downsides.
amara raja - stock has finally broken down after holding its own in the weak market for a while. next visible support comes in at 200 dma at 231. stock is oversold and could see a bounce in the coming sessions. outlook for the stock is weak until 300 is crossed on a closing basis. once 200 dma is broken, stock could see a quick selloff towards 150.
unichem - stock is showing considerable weakness with every rally being sold into. 155-160 region has seen some major tops in the past which should act as support now. if that is broken, we could see a selloff towards 125 region.
Iâve been contemplating to buy into this rating agency since past 3 yrs (stupid me) but have always been taken aback by its rich valuation. Now that itâs facing a long time-correction, temptations are soaring. Off course, valuation, as always, are still high @34 PEâŚ
Looking at the charts, Ajanta has a support at 620 on the lower side and thereafter at 550. However, the momentum seems to favour the stock. There are more buyers than sellers. Presently it is in the X column. Next target can be 800.
Looking at Nifty, things have not changed much and it is on the sell signal. It has strong support at 5450 where it has made an extended triple top earlier. I hope it respects this support. As you are aware the Nifty has broken the 200 DMA. If the markets turn weak you may get Ajanta at a lower price. With gold prices falling along with oil and other commodities, it is good news for India. This will bring down its CAD.
I suggest you can buy in small lots at the lower range of price which I did recently. I sold it around 765 and covered once again around 650 levels.
In his recent update, vivek patil in his technical analysis newsletter has put forward a possible upmove of around 800-1000 points in the sensex. Remember this is put forward as a possibility and not a definite view. There are a lot of other âwavesâ and possibilities he has put forward.
Correlating his views with macros, the fall in gold and oil prices looks like good news. Plus the repeated test of 5450-5500 support levels seems to have given the much needed base building time for a possible upmove.
good job tony, i also did something similar. sold at 785-790 and covered recently at 650-655. i am now wondering is this just a re-rating due to consistent growth or there could be speculation of ajanta being bought out by another pharma firm? usually these deals happen at > 4-5x sales.
ajanta - ajanta continues in primary 3 uptrend. one characteristic of ajanta chart is that it continues to hold 50 dma on a closing basis for an entire uptrend and once it closes below it, the uptrend is over in most likelyhood. i keep buying it closer to 50 dma like i recently did. 50 dma is currently at 636 and until that holds it is a buy on dips. target is 800 next and then much higher until the stock holds 50 dma.
godrej ind - there is no clear OEW wave pattern as the stock continues to show overlapping waves which doesnât bode well for long term. stock does keep testing the 200 dma once a while and bounces from there. this pattern of overlapping waves is similar to titan before it crashed, so i would be a bit careful unless the stock starts impulsing on the upside. 5% below 200 dma should be stoploss on closing basis.
cairn - stock is heading down to test its previous bottom in 260 region. trend is down until 200 dma at 333 is recaptured. if it shows some support around 250-260 region, it could attempt another rally towards 400.
kajaria - stock is correcting its entire 2010-12 uptrend is currently stalling around the 38.2% retracement around 184, below which 50% retracement at 160 should provide support. stock has been correcting in a straight line with 50 dma acting as a resistance on each rally attempt. until the 50dma at 196 and then 200 dma at 203 is captured back on a closing basis, trend remains down. stock is currently in oversold region and trying to form a short term bottom.
I think its best to wait for this quarter results. This will tell us if the stock is over priced or there is scope for improvement. Sometimes, analysts, investors expect too much and when that does not reflect in the results, the stock is ruthlessly hammered. A case in point, Infosys, where 35000 cr. of market cap was wiped off in a single day. Just because the company under performed by 500 cr. which was the expectations of market participants.
In my earlier post i had mentioned that Nifty has support at 5450 where it had made an extended triple top. The market respected that support zone and reversed from 5500 and presently trading at 5916. Please see the chart below:
Now the next resistance for Nifty is at 5950 where it will once again make a double top. If it breaks this resistance then it can once again claim Mount 6100. Let us look at what the markets have to say. We all must respect the market. It has a mind of its own.
Seek the views of Hemant/ Hitesh and the rest who use technical analysis. Please contribute generously.
From the chart one can see that the stock corrected after making a new high of 440 and fell sharply after making a double bottom at 380.It is good to see the stock trading above the Bearish Resistance Line in red which points to 290. Presently there are more buyers than sellers. The next resistance is at 360 and then again at 380. If it manages to break out then it can once again touch 410 and thereafter 440.
The stock has been consistently moving upwards making higher tops and higher bottoms which tells us that the stock is a strong stock. It is currently trading above the 50 day EMA and taking support there.
