Dear Hemant,
Lot many valuepiCkers are invested in Canfin Homes .
Could you please give the technical analysis for it ?
Hi Hemant,
Any view on VST industries. Stock has fallen from 1900 levels to 1500 levels today. Is this an opportunity to buy or you see more downside here?
vivek - canfin looks good fundamentally but i am a bit skeptical about the chart. the stock had a small rally from dec-11 to apr-12 where it rallied from high 80’s to 129 and then went into a long sideways consolidation till end of q3 2012 before it rallied in a hurry to 185 before correcting now to the 100 dma at 150. till now the story is fine as it seems like the stock had a 1-2-3-4 wave move and now waiting for a wave 5 rally to new highs. but if you look at its chart from q2 2009 to 2010, you would see a similar pattern where it eventually corrected to 100 dma in what looked like a wave 4 correction. then had a small bounce to excite the investors before breaking 100 dma and heading much lower. so i would wait for the 50 dma(currently at 163)to be broken from the lower side and the stock holding it for a few days before taking a position. else, I would wait for the 200 dma at 127 to take a position. having said that, the stock is showing positive divergence on the RSI and is ripe for a bounceback where it should find resistance at 163.
rajat - vst industries has been a amazing leader during this whole bull market since 2009 but has recently shown signs of tiring out. it has broken 200 dma and is still heading lower every day. major support lies immediately below at 1500 and the stock seems very oversold on RSI. if it holds 1500, we could see another attempt to touch 200 dma at 1775. if 1500 breaks, stock could head to 1000 over medium term. if i were to take a long position, i would wait for the stock to rally above 200 dma at 1775 currently and consolidate above it for a while. for a long term investor 1480 should be a strict stoploss.
Hemant Sir
Can you provide TA for Gujarat Intrux ? Can a re-entry be made at these levels
Regards
Mallikarjun
Hey Hemant,
Do you think Kajaria is done with its fall, also will it be a good time to start accumulating
Thanks
hello,
wants your valuable suggetion on shalimarpaint,castrol india ,karur vasya bank,bajaj corp for accumulating.
Hello Kumar,
I hope you and Hemant will not mind me sharing my thoughts on Karur Vysya Bank.
The stock has taken support of 200 DMA and bounced back. Currently above 200 DMA 463.94.
As per chart above there are more buyers than sellers and the stock is currently in X column indicating the same. The next resistance is at 520 where there is a double bottom. If it breaks this resistance, then the stock can touch 590 once again and make another double top.
Hi Vivek,
I do not follow Reliance, however for Nifty the charts read like this:
http://chartink.com/pandf.php?name=nifty
The Nifty is currently in an uptrend after falling from 6100 to 5700. Now the next resistance is once again at 6100 where a double top will be formed.
hi guys,
was away due to some personal work and hence the delay in replying to the queries. apologies for that. shall get back to work now.
mallikarjun - gujrat intrux is a nano cap and hence doesn’t usually suit OEW type of analysis due to wild daily swings. it rallied from early 2009 to early 2010 and then went into long sideways consolidation before making a move again in 2012. the stock is in an upswing and is being supported by 200dma on every downmove. if you are long, you can hold until it closes below 200 dma for 2 consecutive days.
hardtoget - kajaria is now testing 200 dma and the chart is showing positive divergence at the lows. stock seems ripe for a bounceback trade. 50 dma at 212 is the intermediate resistance. any close above that should be positive and could trigger the end of correction. could be accumulated around 200 levels and lower.
sunil - can you pls specify which ones out of these would you prefer for analysis. due to lack of time, it is difficult to analyse all four.
Thanks Hemant
Hemant …Cannot stop expressing…Great attitude.
Titan point and figure chart (link shown below) clearly shows a triple top at 235 which should provide a good support in current decline according to change of polarity principle.(In this principle it is believed that once a top is cleared and stock rises significantly, on subsequent declines, the level of top offers support )
I hope tony verifies my reading in this point and figure chart.
We missed you Hemant sir
Hemant sir, can you provide TA for Disa India…Planning to slowly nibble it, if more conviction builds.
I am in two minds because of Disa’s p/e=22 and the recent carnage in small/mid caps.
Regards
hi mallikarjun,
disa was rangebound at lower levels until early 2012 where it broke out of the range to complete its first 5-wave uptrend at 3944 and has been consolidating sideways since then between 2300 and 3150. 2300 is roughly 61.8% of the previous upmove so thats a positive long term consolidation. the stock has a tendency of going into hibernation for very long periods of time so i would not be surprised if it continues to be rangebound here for next many months. any weekly close below 2300 would pave the way for the full retracement of the entire previous uptrend with a target of 1500-1600. given the liquidity in the stock, any break of the range on either side could see a quick move. i would not take a position until the previous top is cleared given so many other attractive oppurtunities in the market.
Thanku Hemant Sir :-).Will wait for 1500-1600 levels for Disa India
You had cautioned us regarding Ahlcon Parenterals… It did crack its 150 EMA and is trading at 330, well below 360-380 the price at which i was ready to get in. 200 is the range which i am waiting for
Regards
Mallikarjun
Hello Hemant,
Do you have any views on Granules and Siemens/ABB at these levels?
Thanks
Salil
Hi Hemant,
Hows Mayur Uni looking on charts?
Thanks
Jatin
apologies for the late reply guys. have been very busy lately
granules - the stock was holding above the 76.4% retracement level(97) of the entire uptrend but over the last 2 days it has broken below that. i don’t see any support in the immediate term unless stock bounces back strongly above the 50 dma at 120. if it continues to trade below 50 dma, we could see it going back to the previous dec-11 bottom around 55. i am completely out of the stock but keeping it on the watchlist.
siemens - uptrend topped in mid 2011 and stock has been correcting since then in a downward sloping channel. recently, it bounced up from an extremely oversold condition but reverted back after touching 50 dma. the recent low was also the 50% retracement of the entire 2009-12 uptrend. trend remains lower until 200 dma at 661 is convincingly captured again. stock should find support at 470-480 levels which if broekn could lead to a slide below 400.
mayur - stock has been on a sharp downtrend after breaking its consolidation range. it has still held up well in the recent carnage. the range of 370-400( should provide decent support, 200 dma is at 398 while 371 is the 38.2% retracement level of previous uptrend). mayur seems to finished the 3rd wave on the long term scale from 2008 so best percentage gains are behind us. although thenextuptrend should carry itto atleast 505+ before it goes through a deeper correction. i am trying to buy closer to400.
thank you Hemant sir.