Hemant…polymed making lower tops and lower bottoms for last five days…is it pointer to some upcoming problem what do chart say.
worried as have reasonably good exposure.
hi vimal,
don’t see anything concerning on the charts. the stock is in a nice uptrend and occasionally tests the 50 dma
Hemant bhaiya waiting for your reply
1.Poly medicure is already in primary 3 wave which started from 232 and for Cera primary 3 wave is yet to start. Cera has just finished impulsive wave 1 which started from 450 rs and in correction 2 wave.
Have i analysed it properly.
2). When you are free can you indicate the waves and upload the image for both Cera and Polymedicure.
Am confused whether to start the count when the stock crosses 365 day moving average
( Cera has crossed 365 dma on 2 occasions. Once at 55rs in 2009 and 172 rs in 2012 ).
Regards
mallikarjun
hi ashwin,
ttk healthcare - nothing exciting on the charts. stock has been rangebound between 650 on the upside and 350 on the downside for so many years and continues to trade in that range.
indoco - another rangebound stock between 50 and 75. nothing tells me that the range will change anytime soon.
PI - i am fundamentally very positive on this and i believ the best is yet to come for this stock. it has recently started an uptrend which faces resistance in 140-150 region. once that is broken, we could see a rapid run-up.
divi’s - stock is in a correction after a good uptrend earlier this year. strong support at 850 and resistance at march highs. i believe there is one more uptrend left after this correction is over and then we should see a more sizable correction
hi mallikarjun,
good to seee you catching on to technical analysis.
poly med- primary 1 wave started in early 2009 and finished in dec-2010 at 176. primary correction(A-B-C) took it down to 85 low(50% correction). primary 3 has been underway since then. i still think it is in major wave 1 of primary 3 as i haven’t seen a sizable correction. i would expect to see 500 before this primary 3 ends and a good sized correction takes over.
cera - primary 1 started in mar-2009 at 30 and finished in july 2011 at 260. primary 2 took over from there and brought it down to 162. stock has been since then. the next break below 200 dma should signal the end of primary 3. i am still expecting 700 before primary 3 gets over.
hemant,
Since u are into technicals with all wave counts and all, I would suggest you look at a few possible beaten down / turnarounds with good probability of giving good returns and provide your expertise on those stocks…
I think we could work here in the reverse… first check technicals and then do more digging regarding fundamentals…
First is Blue star…
Next is Hitachi Home…
And another one is Aegis logistics…
And FAG Bearings
All these stocks are nearer to their 52 week lows but not too sure whether they have formed a stable bottom…
If u could provide wave count possibilities with stop loss and whether they have any chance of delivering returns etc… … Basically anyinference u can draw from your wave count expertise.
regards
hitesh.
Thanku bhaiya. Will practice on more charts.
Regards
mallikarjun
Hitesh paaji will try out on your picks. I think you have already found out the bottom. Hemant bhaiya correct me.
1). Blue star
Impulsive 1 from late 2003 till mid 2006 (160 rs). Corrective wave 2 till 96 rs. Impulsive 3 till 519 rs. Corrective wave 4 till 122 rs. Impulsive Wave 5 till 465 . Later impulsive wave A till 324 rs. Corrective wave B till 384 rs. Impulsive wave C now playing out. I think the bottom is near 122 rs.
For the next up move to start the stock must cross 187 rs.
2). Hitachi charts are difficult .
Impulsive 1 from 27 till 80 rs 2009. Corrective wave 2 till 57 rs. Impulsive 3 till 360 rs. Corrective wave 4 till 175 rs. Impulsive wave 5 till 244 rs. Impulsive wave A till 141 rs. Corrective wave B till 176 rs. Impulsive wave C now playing out . I think the bottom is at 94 rs.
For the next up move the stock must cross 138 rs.
Hope the above are ok ok.
3). Aegis Logistics and Fag bearing charts have confused me.
And i am not sure whether as a rule should impulsive 5 must be greater than impulsive 3.
Hello Hemant,
I understand that the index level probably should not be the criteria for buy/sell.
However, have your done TA of the SENSEX/NIFTY itself? Would be interesting to know your analysis.
Dear Hemant
What do think will be a good level to take profits off in Ajanta if there is a reversal? Is it time to give up on Unichem? I also have ING Vysya. Do u think it will fall further? Also any views on GIC Housing?
Thanks
Dear Hemant?
Do u have any Technical views on J& K bank and Hexaware?
hi hitesh,
over years of my experience of trading using elliot wave analysis, i have learnt that predicting the start of wave 1 could provide rich rewards but it exposes you to big losses in case that wave which you thought as wave 1 turned out to be a b-wave of the larger correction. what is almost always risk-free is to correctly identify stocks who have just finished their first impulsive 5-wave uptrend and have entered a correction. because these stocks have confirmed a bull market and would have the next wave as the third wave uptrend which is always explosive and provides most of the gains. I would attempt an analysis on the stocks you mentioned-
1). blue star - stock finished a cycle wave 1 bull market in 2008 and corrected to a low of 129 in 2009 which was primary wave A of the cycle wave 2 bull market and rallied to 489 which primary wave B. The stock has been correcting since then in primary wave C and is likely to test 129 and even lower over the next many months.we would need to see the first impulsive five wave uptrend once C is over followed by a three wave correction to confirm that cycle wave 3 is underway.
2). hitachi - cycle wave 1 peaked in 2008 at 168 followed by cycle wave 2 correction in 2009 to 27 level. stock rallied in huge primary wave 1 of cycle wave 3 to 351 in 2010 and had a deep correction to 97 in major wave A of primary 2 and is currently rangebound in what could be major wave B of primary 2. we should get one more dip down to 97 or lower to finish major C and eventually embark on primary wave 3. weekly close above 170 should confirm that correction is over.
3). Aegis logistics - stock has behaved very similar to hitachi. cycle wave 1 bull market ended in 2008, cycle wave 2 correction in 2009. primary 1 of cycle wave 3 rallied to 380 in 2010 and stock has been correcting since then in primary 2. a dip to 110 and lower should finish off major C of primary 2 and kick off primary 3. a weekly close above 200 should confirm that primary 3 is underway to much higher targets.
4). fag bearings - stock finished cycle wave 1 in 2006, much earlier than the general market and corrected to 220 in 2009 in cycle wave 2. primary wave 1 of cycle 3 has been underway since then in a very strong uptrend. the stock could either be in major 4 of primary wave 1 which means another uptrend to follow to finish the bull market. a weekly close below 1050 would confirm wave 1 is over. this stoploss is quite low and hence needs to be monitored carefully for other signs of breakdown incase one is invested.
Hi Hemant,
Can you look at M&M when you have time?
Thanks,
Ram
thanks hemant…
the gist of the matter is that we need to wait before taking a call on any of these.
regards
hitesh.
hi hemant how r wimplast,laopala an bliss gvs pharma looking on tge charts
hitesh,
i believe 2 and 3 are more directly linked to economy’s recovery and should start their uptrend once economic growth comes back. blue star’s chart shows that company is suffering with some problems of its own as it did not participate in the economic revival after 2008. fag bearings continues to be a buy on dips until the long term stoploss is hit.
hi kuntal,
i have done my analysis on nifty as well. I was very bullish till 3 months ago but continuous overlapping waves have made me conclude that recovery since dec-11 in nifty is more corrective and we are likely to have one more down leg in 2014 to finish off primary 2 around 4500 or lower. the reason for this struggle has been that pharma, fmcg and private banks have been in a bull market since 2011 while capital goods, psu’s etc have been in a bear market. the weightage of the bullish sectors has been increasing in nifty and has stopped it from falling badly. i do believe 2014 will provide a very good oppurtunity to buy some quality names cheap and i have been accumulating cash for that. till then, dollar will be in a bull market against all currencies including the rupee and hence pharma will continue its bull market.
hi rahul,
ajanta is in a strong bull run and nothing in the chart tells me that it is likely to stop anytime soon. it does occasionally correct 25-30 percent from the top giving excellent entry point and may do that again. it remains a buy on any such dip.
unichem - will continue to struggle because of growth concerns. i have sold out and will enter once again when the trading range breaks on the upside which would happen once it breaks 186.
ing vysya - this is falling with other banks and may take time to stabilise. there is strong support around 515-520 below which it could slide till 400.
gic housing - after the brief uptrend of 2012, the stock has resumed the correction ongoing since 2010. there is a good chance that stock goes back to the lows of 70. before that 80-85 levels may provide some support.
hi raj,
j and k - continues to correct in line with other banks. next important support comes in around 990-1000. could be a good buy if it gets there.
hexaware - chart looks good. stock has seen strong recovery after deep correction from 136 to 76. this new uptrend seems like the fifth and final leg of the bull market that started in 2009. i would expect it to scale atleast the previous highs before the uptrend is over.
hi r s,
the stock continues to be in a bull run. currently it is trading very close to its long term trendline since 2009 which has held during the entire bull run. if that is broken conclusively, which would happen on a weekly close below 823, the stock could see a sharp correction till 600-630 levels.