TCI Express - Logistics Sector niche player


(mylu) #1

Background

TCI XPS was established in 1996 as one of the foremost divisions of Transport Corporation of India Limited (TCIL), India’s most admired logistics company. This division offers a single window time definite solution for customers’ express requirements including domestic courier and international courier services through road, rail and air with some value added services.

TCI Express also provides round the clock door to door E-commerce delivery service in India. Here the focus is very clearly on express cargo distribution with greater emphasis on the burgeoning e-commerce business.

TCI XPS has been hived off to become TCI EXPRESS LIMITED, an independent company listed with stock exchanges of India with effective from 1st April, 2016.

Industry Outlook

Market Size

  • The Indian Logistics industry size is estimated at USD 200 billion in 2016-17. As a premium segment, the express industry is a small but significant segment of the logistics industry.

Market Growth:

  • The industry is expected to grow at 17% per annum in the next three years.
  • Express industry is also expected to receive a fillip from the higher level of consumption demand in the country.
  • The consumption demand in India is expected to grow at 10% over the next 10 years fuelled by higher economic growth, and this will in turn push the demand for items like electronics, garments, etc, in turn creating additional demand for express industry.
  • The growth in express industry, is closely linked to the level of economic activity in the country.

Logistics Spend of GDP:

  • United States and the European Union, the share of logistics industry in GDP is estimated to be approximately 8% and 7%, respectively.
  • Japan, logistics spends form approximately 11% of its GDP.
  • China, the figure is as high as 18%.
  • India, various sources have indicated the share of logistics in GDP to be 11%-13%. While the estimates on the size of the industry vary, it is widely accepted that the logistics industry forms a significant part of any economy and grows in tandem with the economy.

Financials

Revenue for FY18 is 885 crores vs 750 previous year. The PAT is at 58 crore vs 38 crores. The PAT margin has improved from 4.99% to 6.58%.

Plus

  • TCI-XPS has been long term player in logistic field and is aware of the nuances of the industry
  • GST Implementation

Minus

  • Margins are very low as business is highly competitive with many players.
  • Unorganized segment has a huge share

Popular Links

https://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2016/03/tci-xps-demerger-huge-value-unlocking.html

http://www.tciexpress.in/pdf/TCI%20Express%20-%20Investor%20Presentation%2026%20%20May%202018%20.pdf

Disclosure :
I am share holder of the TCI express and opinion may be biased. Members are requested to do a thorough analysis before investing.


(newrb) #2

Hi mylu,
Blue Dart, leader in the express space isn’t growing top line and bottom line as fast as TCI Exp. If I read the annual reports for FY17, Bluedart talks challenging business environment, where as TCI Exp. talks about opportunities. I see the same in Q4FY18 results announcements. NM for TCI in FY18 (6.6%) is higher than BlueDart (5.2%).

In your opinion what is TCI Exp. doing differently from BlueDart? IMO, It is important to understand this to see if TCI Exp. will sustain the growth and valuation.


(mylu) #3

In the latest investor presentation of TCI XPS (attached) they did a comparison (slide 9) . Check the player 2 (I am assuming this is bluedart express).

On the revenue may be ,

  • Their client list in impressive and may be repeat orders are coming based on their performance.
  • Investment in technology and ensuring that they get the early benefit down the years. Though there is a capex involved the returns must be decent/handsome.

In the expenses

  • TCI express has rent spend is about 3% and employee cost is 8% which is nearly half of bluedart express

One point to highlight is TCI xps site is really too good compared to blue dart express. Also investor relations section updated latest . I find it difficult to get the latest one of blue dart express. May be need to browse in other links.

Personally i havent used TCI xps till now but had a very bad personal experience with blue dart express twice . The guys behave as if we are the vendor and they are the customer. Never calls up and just drop a note that they had been to home outside…

http://www.tciexpress.in/pdf/TCI%20Express%20-%20Investor%20Presentation%2026%20%20May%202018%20.pdf


(mylu) #4

(mylu) #5

http://www.tciexpress.in/pdf/Concall%20Transcript-6th%20June%202018.pdf

TCI Express Q4 2018 conference call transcripts.


(ramanhp) #6

(mylu) #7

Annual Report - FY2017-2018
http://www.tciexpress.in/pdf/TCI%20EXPRESS%20LIMITED_AR%202018.pdf


(Sulla) #8

1eb1c10f-312e-4a11-8b5c-163411e6a4c8.pdf (2.9 MB)

The result looks mixed. Q-o-Q numbers are not so good. Y-o-Y numbers are good. I think the results aren’t justifying the premium the price trades at. Please comment.

Disc: Invested


(Chemist) #9

(manivannan.g) #10

Promoter should focus on business only, should not micro manage the stock price. If they do so, IMHO, It’s a red flag.


(mylu) #11

(newrb) #12

With sharp run up in fuel prices it will be interesting to see TCI express quarterly numbers this time. In the interview above, they say for 20% customers that provide large volume they can pass on the costs gradually. If it is the 20% customers that bring 80% business then it will have a big impact on the bottom line. I am keen to see how they manage the costs.


(khs) #13

FY19 Q2 : Good set of numbers

Management commentary is very strong to continue the growth momentum in the second half.


(mylu) #14

Q2 Results

https://www.tciexpress.in/pdf/UNAUDITED%20FINANCIAL%20RESULTS_30.09.2018.pdf


(shyamutty) #15

Half yearly comparison:
21.64% growth in revenues
41.30% growth in profit from operations
28.68% growth in net profit
28.76% growth in EPS