SYMPHONY - A Comfort to hold for Long term?


(Hitesh Patel) #1

symphony seems to be forming an interesting inverted head and shoulders pattern. If and only if the pattern plays out by breaking out above 360, then targets could be close to 420.

here we are trying to pre empt the pattern so that we can get a good entry point and better returns.

Fundamentally it is a good debt free stock with a big market share in the air cooler segment. Management commentary post q2 fy 13 seems to be encouraging regarding order book etc.



(Krishna kumar) #2

http://www.business-standard.com/content/research_pdf/sym_041212.pdf.

Interesting point was:

Over the period July-Nov,2012 the company has received ~Rs1bn orders from its dealer/distributors.

For these orders the company has received 100% cash advances. Of these orders ~Rs250mn worth__was dispatched in Q1FY13 and the rest will be delivered during Oct,2012-Jan,2013 period.

Apart from this they have made a weighted base price hike of 10% across the protfolio.


(Krishna kumar) #3

Excellent Results.

Sales grew from 57.75 to 92.12 crores representing 60% Growth(YOY)

Net profit grew from 11.3 to 16.7 representing 48% growth (YOY)

The best part is average realisations per cooler has improved from 4740 to 5522 due to the value added models and features. Cash/Cash equivalents in hand 117 crores (increased from 98 crores from june qtr) compared to 37.3 crores.

Company sold 148951 coolers compared to 82730 in india on year on year basis inspite of the exports coming down drastically in the current quarter.

The real trigger would be 1)if the exports picks up since they had earlier decided not to export to impco to clear the inventory which had been accumulated in the previous quarters and 2) traction in Industrial cooling segment which has hugeopportunityand less or nil organized competition.

Inventroy is also 10.3 crores when compared to 30 odd crores last year’s quarter.

The company has zero debt , excellent returns both ROCE/ROE and increasing realizations with credible management and excellent cash flows.

Anybody seeing any negatives apart from the common concern of seasonal earnings company.


(Hitesh Patel) #4

The performance of the company going forward will be dominated by the type of summer we see.

The company has done well in what is traditionally the off season for it.


(Krishna kumar) #5

Symphony also plans to increase the dealers network from 14,000 to 20,000 by June 2013. It is also exploring new countries for exports The industrial and commercial air coolers manufactured by Impco are launched inAfricaandColumbia. The company is also exploring Russia for the same .

In respect of Industrial and commercial coolers in India, the company tied up with large corporates and HVAC consultants. The company is also increasing its manpower strength for this segment to explore huge market potential.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/earnings/earnings-news/symphony-ltds-profit-rises-48-to-rs-16-73-crore-in-q2/articleshow/18132599.cms

I believe company is doing all the right things to bring down the dependency on seasonality.


(Saurabh Srivastava) #6

Last year due to late summer sales, this time indications have been that dealers want to order early to avoid that situation as indicated by management earlier.

Also in the first quarter there had been less production as company was working to get a new model out, and hence sales was pushed to this quarter.

The surprise can also come from exports, they have hired a lot of country heads. The numbers for exports till now have not scaled up in that order - some of the markets e.g. Russia can be a monopoly kind of business if they get it right. This can take away a dependancy on Indian summer.


(Krishna kumar) #7

symphony targeting 55 pc market share in branded cooler market.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/symphony-upbeat-on-branded-air-cooler-market/article4584911.ece

Going by the link, the organized cooler market is 1000cr, so are we looking at a turnover of 550+ crores?


(Ayush Mittal) #8

Hi Krishna,

I think the organised market is about 500 Cr as per the article and co is targetting 55% of it.

Ayush


(Krishna kumar) #9

hi ayush,

thanks for correcting me.

How do you view this company? Just wanted to know your thoughts?


(Ayush Mittal) #10

Hi Krishna,

Have missed participating in this co several times. A good investor/client I know has a good exposure.

I think the co is pretty good and the past track record has been highly commendable. Also If one analyses the balance sheet, its in excellent shape.

I think it may remain a very good story.

Ayush


(Krishna kumar) #11

thanks ayush for your feedback.


(Krishna kumar) #12

Q3 Results out!!!

Sales increase by 10% from 79.72 to 87.82 crores

NP increases by 20% from 14.96 to 18 crores

For nine months ended,

Sales increases by 24%.

NP increases by 20%.

Interesting point is :

(D) lt is to further inform that Domestic Sales value upto 28th April, 2013 has crossed Domestic sales of whole year 2011-12.

Looking at the data, sales for full year (domestic) was 202 whereas it is 175(domestic) for nine months ended FY13. so sales of 27 crores is not a big deal I believe.If we take this as an avg then sales for this quarter comes around 80 crores. Can there be more sales in the next 2 months since this it is their best quarter?

So a 22-25% growth in EPS should be a possibility for the full year 2013.


(Krishna kumar) #13

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Symphony_Ltd1_300413_Rst.pdf


(Nadakarni) #14

I presume the June quarter would be the best quarter for the company. The summer has been normal this year so far. Looks like the sales would primarily depend on the initiatives taken by the company rather than weather.

Anyone with ground level feedback on sales front this season/ summer ?


(Krishna kumar) #15

I checked birla more in bangalore here and could see lot of coolers stacked. Diet 22 was the highly stacked one and it seems there is a very good response for it. There were certain features available which i could not see in the other company coolers kept there esp - time setting,Empty Water Tank Alarm,System Restore Functionand other touch button settings. It was compact and tidy when compared to others. This was the new supply. Earlier they did not have the diet models but found lot of ninjas version.

In big bazaar, coolers of all companies were out of stock when i visited last week and the supply are expected this week . I will be going this weekend to check the same.

In bangalore, it is very hot compared to few years back.

The real trigger for symphony would be the gaining the market for - industrial coolers since it is a 2000- 3000 crore market. If it does well here as in the case of residential coolers, we can expect a life time high soon. Till then it will be 25% grower i believe.

Waiting for the concall if any.


(Krishna kumar) #16

Concall details for symphony.

Some key highlights:

Keynote - This time more emphasis on qualitative overall macro than the quantitative aspects

Overall externalopportunity

Population view

In India there are250 million house holds

)- 83 mn not having even fans. (1/3rd )(33%)

)- 164 mn having access to fans and other sources to cool (65%)

)- out of these 9.4 mn having AC - (3.8% having air conditioner)

)- 5% of population having air cooler in that.

)- hugeopportunityfor symphony for many years.

)- addressing marketopportunityof 95%.

)- still 67% households of market potential to upgrade to air cooler.

Climate view of the cooler market

household in the regions having dry/hot and moderate climate.

o dry& hot - 132 mn (54%)

o moderate - 11 mn (5%)

o 143 mn target

Export

o tied up with top notch distributors in 60 countries

o non-Mexico exports (ROW) - 39%(volume wise) and 57% (value wise)

o Mexico impco having huge inventory and no further exports till the inventory comes down (expected to come down significantly by Sep)

o Exports for impco will start after that. So FY14 we can see further exports to impco.

Industrial cooling

)- tied up with consultants, appointed 32 dealers

)- For 9 months - installed IC in 55 sites.

)- major clients include marico, one of group company of hero honda, tractors India, akshardam, swami narayana, baba ashram, isckon etc.

)- continue focus on asset light, cash and carry

)- 40 sites in progress.

General

o For quarter avg improved from 5029 to 6062 realization.

o Took two price increases.

o Confident of good volume growth.

o Launched 6 new upgrades.

o Competition subdued.

o Sylvan pte increase in holdings for better fiscal management and tax handlings.

o Consolidated reporting(of subsidiary) only in the year end and not quarter to quarter.

As of April 28, domestic sales value have surpassed what has been achieved for full year FY12. Volumes also increased close to full year fy12. This is a great news since for FY 12

For FY12 the volumes on domestic -357,813 units.

For 9 months -303,371 units

So 54000 already sold till April !!!

Company bullish on volume growth and expect sales to pick up in the coming months. Sales to dealers will happen throughout the quarter based on demand…

The concall is also available in researchbytes.com


(Rahul) #17

In Hyderabad; weather is predominantly hot. Symphony has good visibility in all modern retail formats.

  • Hypermarket has a huge volume of Symphony Diet coolers on Display
  • Reliance digital primarily had Symphony coolers
  • Croma had a mix of Kenstar, Bajaj & Symphony

Diet model should get good traction amongst apartment households as its unique, compact, good looking & loaded with lot of practical features. Having said that, there are negative comments about this product on various review sites.

I managed to speak with repair technician of Symphony; his guesstimate was the sale this year was much better than previous year; also, they have expanded the service network significantly & have addressed many of the frequently complained issues through product modifications.


(Krishna kumar) #18

went to big bazaar today. No coolers, except usha coolers were there. There was a supply of diet 22 i coolers last week, but in small qty and that is completely sold out. Next tranche of supply expected in another 10-15 days.

got good feedback for symphony sales and the salesman assured it is indeed fast moving.


(Krishna kumar) #19

symphony planning to add 40,000 dealers from 13000 in FY12 in the medium term as per the concall.


(Rudra Chowdhury) #20

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/symphony-says-no-signsslowdownsalesindia_878025.html

“As such our subsidiary company was sitting on substantial stock ofSymphonyresidential coolers as on June 30th 2012. Current year as a one time and strategic step, we have decided not to export, so on that part, current year there is a correction,” Shah said.

The company had made ambitious business plans in US and Mexico in 2011-12 and so had exported huge stock of coolers. However, growth there has only been “modest”, he added.