YEAR 2 UPDATE: Principle of adversities
Sharp 7 in morning, I started with my old pal towards a particular destination. Reason, inter school competition has been arranged this time at least 30 kilo meters from the city in some rural areas. Whether this was a master stroke by organisers or not is questionable but it definitely did not impress a majority of parents who has to travel with their kids. Obviously, each child was guarded by more people now including grandparents and in some cases neighbour uncles and aunties!
Before 200-meter race begin for kids as usual well wishers surrounded every child with water bottles, biscuit, fruits and so on; this is despite a continuous push by organiser not to make the area crowded. My eyes caught attention of a child apparently stood alone watching towards the sky. I couldn’t trace an iota of influence from surroundings on his face.
By this time, you would have realised who won the race? That’s not stumped me but the margin of winning, he was ahead at least 50 meters from the next competitors in a 200 meters race. The race got over, hyperbole again came back with crowd; same stuffs i.e. biscuits to fruits. The winner is gone, as if he came for race and executed; once done he left. I decided to trace him out, after 1 hour of search I learnt his name. Born to a farmer, but importantly for the occasion he is not spoiled by herd thinking. Whether he will be able to maintain this instinct, we have to wait and watch.
This incident brought me back to a pertinent research by Tom Stanley few years back. He jotted down (not one year but almost 3 decades list) 100 richest, influential people from Forbes and other research/projects and traced their roots to understand what were these men and women when they were little known. For me outcome is not surprising, you see for yourself:
- Less than 2% of these successful people hardly excelled in school, be it sports or studies. Back bencher type of guys and girls!
- For the selected few who worked in employment, none of them was blue eyed boy or green-eyed girl in office. No accolades, no rapid promotion!
So next time you see your child or someone shy and looks like idiot you know the future! Also, if your child is not cracking big in exams or not doing well in sports don’t blow off your eyes. Child may turn out to be one of the multibagger talent. There are multiple reasons behind this divergence, I leave it to you to read Tom’s thesis. I just wanted to tell you, it’s a fact that what we see from surrounding systems can be crap, nothing more.
It’s now end of 2 years since I moved out of employment. The first thing I wanted to tell you is I have survived 2 years, going by law of averages if I survive one more year I am going to thick skinned in game. My survival chances get manifolded then.
I will not summarise the journey today, let’s keep it for some other day. Also, I have been mentioning on and off with key learnings every time. Today I wanted to tell you about the principle of adversity rather maximum adversity.
Maximum adversity is the presence of inherent obstacles, show stoppers, difficulties etc you come across when you pursue an objective. Like any inherent risk you can reduce it to tolerable extent but can not eliminate it. From an investor perspective market will beat you down more number of times than whatever you plan and design. Maximum adversity is there everywhere, everything we do. The task is not to find out all adversities from day 1 (you won’t be able to) but to manage the adversity differently while playing different roles. For example, if you manage non-delivery at office in a specific way, it may be different way while managing same issue at home. In fact, some times it can be upside down or opposite. And largely these opposite acts need too many contradictory principles for a human to manage, more so if you are present in multiple quadrants; say you are employee as well as entrepreneur. I will talk few of my own principles of adversities which turned my belief system and still in progress.
You will be fired IF YOU TELL YOUR BOSS
A. I am going to do 60% or mistake or more. Still I am going to be the best, because I want to be best loser.
Imagine you lose 50-60% more times on a regular basis across your life span. That is nature of probabilities not certainties where risk and rewards are largely regulated.
B. Let us not have target date for assignment. Objectives can not be ephemeral but enduring.
You are on a continuous spree of losing (3/5/7 years or more), process is no where in end at sight. No one knows where is end.
C. We may not have profit for 9 months a year still we will do far better than rest.
You start with six months losses at a row in a year. Can I give guarantee for month 7? No, still I am optimist I will end the year at a consolidated positive.
D. If we do nothing for next six months we will still be far ahead of others.
Sitting tight for months and inactive does wonders in investing world. I found this hardest among all traits. They say empty mind is devil’s mind (more reference to lazy), here it can bring miracles.
E. If we accept our mistakes quickly we will improve our performance.
Once you admit to mistake you detach yourself from whole execution and management. Emotionally as well. Quite a painful activity.
Resurrecting the inspirations
It’s a fitting time to give tribute to few personalities who inspired and changed my process and belief systems. A small token towards them by expressing my gratitude.
I struggled four and half years with no income, reluctant to went for a job until one day decided. I will not be mediocre anymore, this is the last day I would see myself in despair. Next day my fortunes changed. Message- BELIEF IN YOURSELF FIRST.
Accountability is look for guide, develop a process and accept failures to amend process. Repeat the process till victory. I will rather die in chasing process than quitting. Quitting is not an option.
The bottom line is you need to work hard. So hard you feel pain, sometime not tolerable. You get up in midnight with eyes gazing to roof for hours. You should know you are close to the light.
To dream you need to remain alive, to be alive you have to keep going and to keep going you need to hyper realist.
Everyday I get up first line I think, man you can damage yourself more than anyone else. Cherish the risk or else perish.
They called me stupid and ignorant, I prefer to be stupid while in profits than a genius while having losses.
The best wisdom lies in your own foot prints. Respect the metrics else don’t expect anything.
If the child starving next road will go to hell, so does you. For god’s shake come out of illusion, everyone’s beginning and end is same. After a point take the bus towards end destination only. Rest all is gimmick.
I do not want to quote anything from him as he is a widely respect personality, a legend rather. He left a deep-rooted impression within me forever, reasons to me are:
Focus on life style, life style and life style. The road to bankruptcy is mis management of expenses not income.
Out perform the tiger, not to win the race but save your life. Set your benchmark for both risks and rewards not REWARDS only.
The difference between heroics and stupidity is a thin line. Reverse is true also, you can come back in a week.
Human behaviour has not changed nor it will. Pattern is eternal truth of world, as long patterns exist, rewards exist so does visual thinking.
Do not culcate a habit of making something simple as extra ordinarily complex. You do not end up as a genius but stupid.
Mathematics is force behind nature, the game has never changed in stock market neither it will. Ignore mathematics, you are out of the game
What next? Moving to next zone with minimal panache.
Underplaying and over dose of risk management:
I am born in a middle-class family surrounded by academicians and employees. Nothing wrong! We scale up further and moves to next step, society also fragment further to enable your dreams further. But the movement is restricted till mean reversion. What does this mean?
__n simple words I played the game in my comfort zone. If I was getting a particular amount as salary, if I was spending certain amount as expenses and lifestyle that determined decision making when it comes to investing. Say if your lifestyle is settled in six digits there is a trigger required to take seven-digit decisions in investing quadrant. The emotional movement from a number or criteria to another one which you have never seen earlier. _
Investing can work with right money management and process only. If that requires to move to an extreme uncomfortable zone, so be it. The risk can be much higher in non-linear place including a wipe out. But execution can only bring experience and triggers that are required moving on next. I am gearing up again for next zone.
_This audacious act again will require a lot more wishes from you. I am eternally optimist that I will continue to get them.