Suven Life Sciences - Embedded triggers


(JKS) #101

@arunsg Yep. That is the brazing I meant. I will be joining the two lots by some serious down :disappointed_relieved: averaging !!


(JKS) #102

For what it is worth, this news came late yesterday night
Suven Life Sciences Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on August 14, 2015, inter alia, has authorized to create an overseas subsidiary with an initial investment of US$ 25 Mn for clinical development and commercialization of Suven pipeline and in-licensed molecules
http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/ann.aspx?scrip=530239&dur=A&expandable=0


(Nikhil Jain) #103

As a defensive investor one shall evaluate SLS on the basis of core business alone.

The IP of SLS is certainly huge. But I cannot pay a premium for it as long as it is almost a certainty that the IP has a smooth road to be converted into money.

If one pays premium today and down the line SUVN 502 proves unsuccessful, the stock will be evaluated only on the basis of core business at that particular time. In such a case, there will be loss of money as well as opportunity cost, unless SLS’s CRAMS business shows consistent growth.

I’m not saying SUVN 502 will not be successful. All I can say is that I do not know the eventual outcome for certain or even if SLS can monetize it. Thus today it remains a gamble. And as a wannabe defensive value investor, I refuse to take one.

Disclosure - The views are my own. I have held SLS in the past but have no holdings at present. Can again buy if either serious correction happens from current levels or positive changes are seen. Do your own due diligence before buying/selling.


(JKS) #104

clip_image001

Suven Life Sciences Ltd to host Q1 FY16 Results Conference Call
on Monday, August 17, 2015 at 2:00 pm IST

Hyderabad, August 10, 2015:
Suven Life Sciences Ltd will be conducting a conference call to discuss its Q1 FY2016 results performance. Suven Life Sciences will be represented by members of the senior management team.
The conference call will be initiated with a brief discussion after which the floor will be opened for Q&As. The financial results will be announced on August 14, 2015 and available on the Company’s website: www.suven.com
Details of the conference call are as follows:
Timing : 2.00 p.m. IST on Monday, August 17, 2015
4.30 p.m. Hong Kong / Singapore Time
Conference dial-in Primary number : +91 22 3938 1071 / +91 22 6746 8354
India Local access Number : 6000 1221 (Accessible from all major carriers except BSNL/MTNL)
3940 3977 (Accessible from all carriers)
Hong Kong Local Access Number : 800 964 448
Singapore Local Access Number : 800 101 2045
UK Local Access Number : 0 808 101 1573
USA Local Access Number : 1 866 746 2133

For further information please contact:
Venkatraman Sunder, (VP - Corporate Afffairs)
Suven Life Sciences Limited
Tel: + 91 40 2354 1142
Email: [email protected] Gavin Desa / Rabindra Basu
Citigate Dewe Rogerson
Tel: + 91 22 6645 1237 / 1248
Email: [email protected]
[email protected]


(JKS) #105

I was in the con call. Rather than relying on my chicken scroll, I am awaiting the official update. The net out of it all. This will be a flat year (by flat, don’t merely take whole of last year and hope that it will repeat in remaining quarters miraculously. It will be flat after we take off one time order of 45 cr, as per Mr Jasti… And yes, even margins will get impacted by this one time order being not there this year). On the whole it looked like they may not need anything beyond the QIP proceeds for the trials. So, it all comes to 502 and it may take about an year plus to move to 2b. The new entity in US is for attracting talent.
PS - sold off 1/3rd of quantity yday as a measure to not keep worrying about opportunity cost in a flat year. I know that some may see it as short sighted. Agreed that the stock has a tendency to run, when they announce these patents (what really happens to them… ). I went with the argument that real upside is dependent on just a few jackpots and I can risk only so much. With this clean up, suven holding will be about 10% of my pharma basket and 3-4% overall PF


(manomagg3) #106

Dear KS
I was also there on the call and asked them about the 5 year target and competion
may be too early to get out, he also mentioned that there is a possibility of repeating the last year order in the q3, which as of now is not factored in the guidance
also there are positive moves like opening a subsidiary in US, moving ahead on the Suven 502 etc.
the stock may suddenly move in Q3 or so,


(JKS) #107

Maybe, I heard it wrong. I heard it as that one time order may repeat only next year since the buyer too has to complete his trial and it will take an year plus. This what I recall but I reserve the right to be wrong here. Moreover, if may come in Q3, why was Mr Jasti asking for the 45 cr to be off the table? He clearly said that it’s one time dream and we should move on. My biggest peeve is that with this so called new interpretation of flat year, why is the speciality chemicals from Vizag plant not evening out uncertainties. That delta should kick in shortly but doesn’t seem to be biggie in grand scheme of things.


(JKS) #108


Latest from Mr Jasti. Again, 45 cr is one off in this. Although there is some fuzzy pic about Q3 being good, I still feel one off order won’t come this year since he said that the buyer had to complete his trials


(YA) #109

He was clear about 45 cr being an extraordinary item last quarter and results should be analyzed minus that.

"If you see that last year, there is one-of of Rs 45 crore in Q1. If you take that off, we are flat or little bit positive on this thing so there is no degrowth on that part as far as that is concerned. So we are saying the same thing continuing and Q3 will be good.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results-boardroom/rd-main-focus-growth-to-reflectq3-suven_2569581.html?utm_source=ref_article"

They planned to spend 110 Cr on Vizag plant and it might go up to 120 Cr, Revenues from that plant are not included in current quarter, they expect revenues from this plant to start flowing from next quarter.

As @KS16 mentioned, US entity is to find local talent. It will not be a plant or capex but spend will be on salaries to management and business development in US


(JKS) #110

The other thing that surprised me was that this aspect of they finding out now that there won’t be takers to drugs in trial phase unless you get to 2nd phase end. This means that there is no easy way to monetise your discoveries. With 2a plus 2b likely to take 2 plus years, we are looking at 2017 optimistically or beyond. So, what are the odds of 502 sailing through phase 2? 0.4% reveals this study of all trials that were conducted between 2002-12. http://www.alzres.com/content/6/4/37
So, is there no hope? There is always hope but given the odds, I call it as a strike in a pin ball lottery. Also, there are other 2-3 moving thro phase1 and something may click but timelines will look 5-6 years away when they complete phase 2.
PS - I reduced my exposure a tad, given the above. This isn’t a buy/ sell reco. Pl do your own research


(JKS) #111

SuvenLifeSciencesLimited.pdf (1.6 MB)
Latest investor presentation


(ASPN) #112

Suven ropes in US-based Parexel for trial of Alzheimer drug


(Saji John) #113

Promoters are increasing their stake http://www.moneycontrol.com/livefeed_pdf/Sep2015/F131C466_CAE4_4698_982F_03444AE89998_172023.pdf


(Arun S G) #114

Another molecule enters Phase-1 trial.

http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/270CA049_7A39_4C1F_9045_EED9FE80F848_103327.pdf

Suven now has 3 clinical stage compounds, a Phase 2 initiated candidate SUVN-502, Phase 1 completed candidate SUVN-G3031 and Phase 1 initiated candidate SUVN-D4010 for Alzheimer’s disease and Schizophrenia. In addition to that the Company has ten (10) internally-discovered therapeutic drug candidates currently in pre-clinical stage of development targeting conditions such as ADHD, dementia, depression, Huntington’s disease, Parkinson’s disease and pain.


(reacher) #115

Credit rating agency, CARE has revised rating of Suven Life Sciences’ long term bank facilities worth Rs 102.97 crore to ‘A-’ from ‘BBB+’. The rating agency has also revised rating of company’s short term bank facilities worth Rs 22.50 crore to ‘A2+’ from ‘A3+’.The revision in the ratings assigned to the bank facilities of the company’s takes into account the equity infusion of around Rs 200 crore primarily for the purpose of funding the progression of the company’s New Chemical Entities (NCE) pipeline which has led to improved liquidity position and improved capital structure as on March 31, 2015.


(JKS) #116

5 more new patent news today


Stock is up 5%


(sta) #117

these patents are just glitter with nothing adding to the balance sheet in the immediate future. maybe in the future the company will be able to monetize these patents. active triggers are atleast 2 years away.

not invested


#118

why do they keep reporting it to exchanges while the monetary aspect is doubtful? This is not supposed to be a material news as such till the molecule is viable or monetizable.


(Chintan) #120

Q2 FY15 results (comparision with Q2 FY14):

Revenue: 117 cr. v/s 140 cr.
PAT: 24.7 cr. v/s 24.8 cr.
EPS: 1.94 v/s 2.13

Results more or less on expected lines, don’t understand why management compares with Q1FY15 to give good picture even though they had given such prediction.

Facility at Vishakhapatnam has commenced operations.

Discl.: Sold off few weeks back as I felt there was no MoS. Remain bullish as ever on the business.


(Vijay) #121

Venkat Jasti, Chairman and CEO, Suven Life Sciences interviewed by CNBC

Key Take away from interview:

  1. Q3 will be inline with Q2 numbers
  2. revenues will revive in Q4 on back of cyclical value-added products
  3. He expects 20-25 percent jump in revenues and EBITDA at 35-36 percent in Q4
  4. Value Added Products will give EBITA of 35-36% and Net Profit margin around 23-32%.

Read more at money control link given below: