Suven Life Sciences - Embedded triggers


(Lav) #189

If anyone attended the concall, can you please post the transcript?


#190

http://www.suven.com/Suven-Q3FY17-ConcallTranscript.pdf


(saikathalder) #191

on 16th may,
CMP 188.25
it has fallen 4.61% in last 10 days.
As per previous discussion, and my basic understanding, quality of the business is still intact.
over the years the earnings have increased.
P/E 19.84.
Which I am not sure, is suitable for pharma sector or not, as I have very little knowledge in this sector,
Also as per data from screener, 3 year ROE is 29% approx.
which is a good indicator of earnings.

So, as per my basic analysis, Suven looks good.
Seniors please provide your inputs in this current scenario on Suven.

Disc: Not invested, watching closely.


(ASPN) #192

Updates: 25.05.17 : Suven begins Phase I clinical trials for its NCE SUVN-911:


(Ankit Kohli) #193

Hello everyone,

Was anyone able to attend the Q1 con call today? If so, can you please share notes from the discussion. Thank you very much!


(reacher) #194

Co guided for 15% type of growth in both sales and profits.Some delay in suvn502 data will unblinded only by Dec 2018 and post that it can take at least 6 months to know success or failure.Seems to be dull phase for next 2 years


(Jose) #195

Any idea about y the stock is moving up so rapidly. I couldn’t find any triggers other than some patents,which the company was getting for sometime. Any idea abt suven 502…

Disc: not invested ,tracking for sometime


(Akshay Kumar) #196

Patents is no new for this wonderful company


(Jiten Parmar) #197

As far as I know, no new triggers. In fact, similar drug from Axovant
recently failed Phase 3 trials. Enrollment of Phase 2a of Suven is going on.

-Jiten Parmar


(ASPN) #198

Q3 Results update -
Financial Highlights for the Q3 December’ 2017 (QoQ):
Growth in income INR 1669 Mn vs 1120 Mn - up by 49.07%
Growth in PAT INR 346 Mn vs 317 Mn - up by 8.99%
Growth in EBIDTA INR 547 Mn vs 501 Mn - up by 9.08%

Financial Highlights for the 9 months’ period ended December’ 2017 (YoY):
Growth in income INR 4256 Mn vs 3805 Mn - up by 11.85%
Growth in PAT INR 958 Mn vs. 831 Mn - up by 15.38%
Growth in EBIDTA INR 1557 Mn vs 1333 Mn - up by 16.79%

Suven’s expenses on innovative R&D in Drug Discovery stood at INR 416 Mn (9.76% on
revenue) for the 9 months’ period ended Dec’ 2017.

The Board has declared an Interim Dividend of Re. 1.50 per share

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/95a66a26-154f-4ae0-a6ba-60460984e9ac.pdf


(Janme) #199

Status of the current drug being developed by Suven Life Sciences.


(sumit680) #201

HELLO EVERYONE…I have read the excellent discussion on this forum with respect to Suven and got interested into the company. After reading few previous year reports and going through literature from other resources , i have made a bear case (list of risk factors) for the stock. Im putting it here to initiate the further discussions and consumption of other members -

  1. The business model is over dependent upon CRAMS…This has been highlighted in the AR too.

  2. A break in the cashflow will be detrimental for the on going NCE project. NCE projects require a sustained inflow of money, time and people.

  3. Failure of SUVN 502 in phase II will be heart breaking as this will mean a further long waiting period for the processing of next NCE.

  4. A decrease in R&D and disinclination towards drug discovery by the innovators and big players will reduce the CRAMS revenues for Suven.

  5. Any kind of dent on the reputation of company due to deterioration in product quality or breach of the stipulated time frame for the product delivery will damage the hard work put in for the years by Suven.

  6. No solid plan for succession is visible. Daughters of the CEO are in USA looking after the progress of NCE molecules.

  7. A drop in margins due to inability to continue cost saving measures or poor management or competition.

  8. Undertaking debt route for the funding of SUVN 502 project. This may occur due to unsustainable increase in capex which will reduce the free cash flows of the company.

  9. Poor sale of Anti Rheumatic and anti Diabetic products at the innovator’s end.

10 An unsustainable diversification in pursual of mitigating over dependence upon CRAMS segment.

  1. In case of a chemical accident taking place in the manufacturing facilities, govt may impose environmental regulations .

  2. I couldn not find the remuneration policy on the website. The issue is that the remuneration is increasing on an yearly basis. It would have been better to see a profit linked commission.

12 Dr. C Rajendiran He was shown as vice president (R&D) till 2015-16 AR but there is no mention of his name in 2016-17 AR…Does any member has any info on this…

Overall, a price of 150-160 would have been most suitable for entering the stock with a good margin of safety. The current stock price gives a margin of safety of 10% only. However, the suven is a unique story where investors are sharing the dream of Mr Jasti.
The critical time will be around june 2019 when the data for phase 2 for SUVN 502 is likely to be revealed.

Dislosure- I have entered at 195 with it as 3% of my portfolio. Plan to increase it to 10-12% at a price below 200.


(vipinsays) #202

Very informative,thanks a lot.
Disc: invested


(Mridul) #203

Good bottom formation in Suven’s chart…Rising support line…Long consolidation.


(Saurabh) #204


(sumit680) #205

thats why such a steep fall today…


(NaMo) #206

Suven informs exchanges that "We would like to inform our shareholders through exchanges about the information appeared in media about FDA inspection in our Pashamylaram, Medak unit during Feb 2018.
US FDA during the inspection observed that there are procedures that followed on certain aspects are deficient in nature. Since these observations are procedural in nature, we have already revised our standard operating procedures (SOPs) as a corrective action and trained employees in the new SOPs thus creating new policies for the companies quality systems and operating systems and submitted documented proofs of all these remedial measures to FDA well in time."
Nothing to panic. No regulatory action required.


(sumit680) #207

Lets see how market reacts tomorrow…We can buy more at the current price…


(AKGupta) #208

Company says the observations were procedural in nature and remedial action has already been taken. Market apparently overreacted on incorrect media coverage.


(manivannan.g) #209

Suven came up with strong numbers.

Good jump in yoy numbers: Revenue - 18.6%, PAT - 56%, EBITDA - 89%, also the R&D expense has reduced (hope the last year’s huge R&D expense reflect on the products and sales :slight_smile: ).

Invester presentation:

From their presentation:

• SUVN-502 Phase 2A clinical trial, indicated for patients with
moderate Alzheimer’s initiated in 76 investigator sites in USA and so
far enrolled 443 patients against target of 537 patients in the study.
• Suven’s Pashamylaram unit successfully completes US FDA
inspection.
• During the period Suven secures 9 product patents in Australia,
Canada, Eurasia, Europe, India, Norway, Singapore and South
Korea.
Disc: Invested and planning to add more on dips.